DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach: Economic data is becoming much less reliable

요약 보기

지난주 FOMC 금리 동결과 고용보고서를 평가하며, 연준 금리(Fed funds)가 2년물 국채보다 약 70bp 높은 괴리가 다시 벌어졌다고 지적. 고용 수정치가 대부분 하향돼 경제 데이터 신뢰도가 떨어지고 있으며, CPI 투입가격 중 대체추정치 비중도 약 8%에서 35%로 급증했다고 주장. 올해 금리 인하는 최대 2회를 기본 전망으로 유지하며, 3회 가능성은 낮게 봄. 2년물 금리는 25bp 하락 후 큰 변동 없음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Joining us now in a CNBC exclusive interview with his first reaction to last week's Fed decision and jobs report is Jeffrey Gunllock. He is the founder, CEO, and CIO of Double Line. It is good to see you. Thanks for being here. Good to be with you again, Scott. So, you now have the benefit of course of not only the Fed decision having been made and hearing from the chair, but you have a jobs report to think about in answering my first question, which is did the Fed make the right move last week by not cutting interest rates?

02. Well, I think that's up for debate right now. You know, one thing that Jay Powell said, he said, uh, one of the words he used was, "We want to be efficient in the way we manipulate the Fed funds rate." I'm not really sure what he meant by that, but he seemed to be relying a lot on the fact that he has two sets of inflation and jobs data that were going to come in between that meeting last Wednesday and the one upcoming.

03. And it was certainly quite a week for data. You know, you had GDP that came out pretty good and then you had the Fed meeting and lots of interesting crossurrens at the Fed meeting and then you had that wild jobs report that kind of changed everything. So, I'm actually sort of glad that we took a rain check on doing it last week because you're right, so many things have come in.

04. I thought that Powell was quite hawkish at his press conference. He actually said uh in response to one question in a way we are looking through the current inflation data otherwise we might have raised rates. I don't think there was a single question at the press conference about uh raising rates. It was all about cutting rates and uh I thought Steve Leeman characterized the meeting very very well.

05. He said uh basically J. Paul said we are at our employment target and we are not at our inflation target which I think is a fair characterization uh by J. Paul and and Steve Lee has been characterizing it that way. Uh but then all of a sudden it looks totally uh annocronistic since we had that jobs report with its 250 plus thousand uh 250 100,000 jobs being being uh uh you know uh eliminated or revised away.

06. And so suddenly we have this gap between the Fed funds rate and the 2-year Treasury which widened out dramatically last Friday. was about a 25 basis point move down in the 2-year Treasury. So now we're getting at that strained level again where the Fed funds rate is 70 basis points uh higher than the 2-year Treasury rate.

07. So the 2-year Treasury is looking for a rate cut. This is this is very reminiscent of exactly 12 months ago when we had the September meeting and they had to cut rates uh 50 basis points because they should have cut them perhaps with the benefit of the hindsight uh in the July meeting and that kind of feels like where we are again.

08. It's not as bad as it was a year ago where there the two-year Treasury was over a 100 basis points below the funds rate, but 70 is is quite a lot by historical standards. And so there is talk in the air of if if indeed there is another weak uh jobs report or revisions lower. You know, people might be talking about a 50 basis point rate cut.

09. We'll see what happens there. So I I feel like um this data that is coming out is getting much less reliable and this has been building for a long time. People are saying that you know the surveys that get are sent out to be filled out for the jobs report only 60% are being responded to and that's that's been rising over time.

10. Also the CPI data is getting kind of suspect. uh several years back about 8% of CPI input prices were estimated. They call them imputed prices. Now it's 35%. It's jumped way up. So 35% in the most recent CPI report of the uh inflation inputs are just kind of made up. And so people are starting to get really worried about the you know the reliability of a lot of this data.

11. So, I think it's almost a certainty at this point, unless we get a a mirror image of this jobs report for the next one coming out. I think it's virtual certainty that the the the Fed is going to cut rates. And in fact, now, even though there's not that many meetings left in the year, we're starting to see market pricing of perhaps as many as three rate cuts this year.

12. I I I I'm skeptical of that. I've been one thing I've been consistent with all year starting with the January conversation we had Scott is I said I think two rate cuts maximum here in 2025. Now I I I think that the data has weakened so substantially uh with these revisions that um you know it's possible that we get a third but I'm I still think my base case is two rate cuts this year.

13. So the these revisions uh are strangely statistically on these because these job revisions seem to almost always be negative. Biden had 48 jobs reports over four four years and 45 of them were revised lower subsequent to the first release. So, some people kind of cynically say maybe they like putting a rosy number on the headline because everyone pays attention to the jobs number on that first Friday of the month and the revisions usually get a little bit swept under the carpet.

14. These were so big though that it was kind of like it was kind of like a bomb went off and the two-year Treasury yield went way down 25 basis points. Interestingly, the stocks recouping more than half well more than half I think of their losses from Friday. The 2-year Treasury yield is basically unchanged.