저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 연준이 인플레이션을 잡는 과정에서 주식은 단기적으로 약세가 이어질 수 있으며, 주택 관련 지표 둔화는 연준에 유리한 신호로 해석된다. 시장 흐름: 다우는 36포인트 상승에 그쳤고 S&P500은 0.65% 하락, 나스닥은 1.1% 하락으로 마감했다. 유가 급락에 숏 세력이 이익 실현 매수에 나서는 등 약세장 속 일시 반등 가능성을 언급했다. 경제 지표: 내일 발표될 생산자물가지수(PPI)가 시장의 지뢰로 지목됐다. 뱅크오브아메리카의 주택 관련 에스크로 결제 증가율이 2022년 마이너스로 전환되었고, 뉴욕 연은의 가계지출 기대치가 급락했다. 주택 가격 상승률도 2020년 6월 이후 최저 수준으로 둔화됐다. 주택 시장 전망: 연준이 주택 인플레이션을 잡기 위해 주택가격 하락(조정)을 원하며, 판매자들이 가격을 낮춰야 하는 국면이 올 것으로 봤다. 기업 실적 리스크: 홈디포, 로우스, 메이시스, 페인트·데킹 업체, 가전(월풀), 웨이페어 등 주택 관련 기업들의 실적 악화가 우려된다고 했다. 기술주 보유자들도 긴장 상태라고 언급했다. 정책 관련: 바이든 행정부가 노동자 편에 서는 정책(긱워커 복지 확대 가능성)을 펼칠 가능성이 있어 우버·리프트 등에 부정적이라고 봤다. 종목 언급: P&G는 재무구조가 업계 최고 수준이고 주가가 하락 중이나 현재 가격이 과거 대비 비싸지 않다고 평가했다. 독스사인(DocuSign)은 경영진 문제와 팬데믹 특수 종료로 부정적으로 봤다. 펠로톤과 애틀랜타 브레이브스도 언급됐다. 전략: 현 단계는 '주는(give)' 단계로 실적 기대 하락을 감수해야 하며, 이후 낮은 인플레이션과 금리 인하, 주가 상승이 뒤따를 것이라는 시나리오를 제시했다. 개별 종목 추천 관련 추가 설명은 예고됐다.
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more other people would make friends I miss get and teach so call me at 1-800-743-cbc or tweet me don't be nice at June Kramer in football they talk about a concept it's called Any Given Sunday many On Any Given Sunday a weaker team can beat a stronger one we call it an upset and if you're a gambler the payoff for an upset can be gigantic but as always betting on an underdog is risky it can look terrific in the first half before crumbling into the clothes and that's how I feel about today's action when you're walking started soft then Roar but things looking real good before the whole thing collapses the close Dow ultimately inching up just 36 points but the s p sinking 0.65 and then as I come in 1.1 percent sell sell sell sell sell sure the Dow did okay but investors care a lot more about the s p and the NASDAQ that's where the real wagering is not the Antiquated Dow remember right now Bulls are looking for signs that the feds winning its war against inflation something will give them an excuse to go a little easier in the economy on any given day we could get some bullish data you know a couple of good points here and there and if they're big enough it gives us a glimpse into what the market will look like when the FED is done bringing in the page she already got a temporary upset let's call it a first half upset why well we came in oil was damn oh well you know you like that if you're a bull it stayed down all day even better crude's been a Mainstay barometer anytime it rallies it drives policy makers just buggers give them that OPEC plus recently cut production today's decline include says hey maybe we shouldn't Panic the price is going right back to 100.
it was a very good sign now I acknowledge that this day-to-day moves can mean nothing but you have to remember that the Bears not the Bulls are in charge right now so when the Bears see oil plunging they get nervous short sellers have made so much money in this market betting against stocks that when they see anything going against them they're quick to want to take profits and short swing the register by buying just like the Longs make their money when they sell sell sell sell stocks the Bears would be less nervous if it weren't for the producer price index number that's coming out tomorrow morning almost all the components like Trade Services warehousing construction transportation services have either stayed flat or Fallen since the last port how do I know this we have a mole on the show that's one of the reasons why we have these guys in the show to get the pasties and not the Mosaic of the economy we know that other than last week's non-farm payroll report the FED really only cares about the Consumer Price Index at this moment and that comes Thursday now those are those numbers of potential Bobs still the PPI as we call it is more like a land mine and the Bears don't want to step on it now we got some terrific in quotes news about housing today too uh the Bank of America's Institute reported that it's and I quote growth rate in wire payments to Escrow and title companies has been slowing and turned negative in 2022 and quote in other words fewer home builders that dovetails with what we heard from the New York fed which talked about household spending expectations falling sharply with their largest one-month decline since they started collecting this data in 2013.
home price growth is now declining too the lowest since June of 2020. now I'm going to give you a little primer I don't know how hell is in business tell stop me if you're in real estate and you sell it and buy it but otherwise keep listening what does all this translate to it means that home sellers must be ready to start banging down beer remember the feds on a crusade against housing inflation and they can't win as long as there's a widespread belief that if you buy a house it's gonna go however if you think your house may be losing value and it's for sale you're going to do something that people haven't been doing for years in this country you're going to lower the price of your home to make it move now the fed's desperate to break the cycle of rising housing prices as homes have gone up an average of 40 in two years we know how the housing cycle works though when there are too many homes the FED Cuts rates and buyers step in prices start going up and a lot of volume trades the home builders of course when they see that they start adding capacity now let me get to a point where mortgage rates go up and while new homes keep being bought the sellers who are used to ever Rising prices now wait to see if there might be an even another leg higher greed at that very moment and make something happens just like with stocks the dreaded equilibrium is reach and greed turns into fear homeowners start getting nervous that they're being too pricey that they're made too greedy that they'll miss the top it's a big game of chicken where some try to stay higher but others just give up and they start taking their offers and then the cycle turns it always does and prices start coming down and then start outright in the more inflated areas this is exactly what happens if the new homes from the home builders aren't stopped in time there will be a severity correction and that takes a lot of the inflationary stress out of the system you must know that the FED wants a severe industry correction they want your home to be worth less money it's okay we know that Home Products companies like Leggett and Platt had a negative pre-announcement last night in that company which has yeah a little to do with orders but it's got a monster our home bill is just embedding well that's good news that place in the fed's Playbook again when we see that we get encouraged not discouraged it it means the feds win it and it's Bringing Down the House Crusade now here's the issue with all this every game's got two halves everything I just gave you was from the first half the morning I looked like the Bulls were winning but then as the afternoon went on Traders particularly short sellers start thinking that as good as these data points are are to make the FED ease up well wait a second maybe they're absolutely terrible when it comes to the earnings of companies that are involved is it really good for Home Depot or Lowe's or Macy's if people are spending less money in their homes do you want to own a stock at a paint company artificial decking maker how about Whirlpool they lose all that original equipment money how can Wayfair do well if lay in planted poorly it can't it's almost impossible to imagine any of the plastic or chemical building Place how about the paint cup is doing well if the economy is slowly enough to make the FED scale back its rate ice oh and the skittish Tech owners can't take pain and they bolt is always the the year to the end of the day whoever owns these tech stocks I gotta tell you you gotta there's Xanax there's Lamictal there's Klonopin there's Seroquel hey I took one of those on a Friday I woke up on Sunday today is a day when the FED always wins always okay once they get aggressive about tightening all sorts of companies start doing badly then let's throw in some bobs we know this Administration generally favors labor over Capital have you noticed when we hear the gig economy workers like those who work for uh Lyft or Uber may be considered contract employees who are entitled to much bigger benefits we know that's the bite Administration trying to give workers a bigger piece of the pie hey good for them obviously bad for the stock so Uber Lyft surprises like this are all negative for the stock market we can't expect the White House to do anything Pro Stock except maybe it's a side effects or something else they actually care about by the way the chaos and bridges just as bad where the finances of the entire country seem to be up in the air both because of some impenetrable pension rules and a Apple's government that led to a big reversal on our bonds oh man nothing's good at the end of the day in business I always say there's no give without a debt right now the givers that you get your portfolio all going down the fed's bringing the pain unless people make money the get is it you'll eventually be rewarded with lower inflation followed by lower rates we're very much in the first phase though the give phase where we're giving up earnings gains and upside surprises this is the phase where we both we're we get excited when business is weaker because it means the FED might not have to hurt us so badly the question is how long do we have to wait between the give and the get we'll take ages for the lower prices to sink in let me give you the bottom line here On Any Given Sunday or Monday night the Raiders can be beating the Chiefs in the first half and then the Chiefs can come back roaring big make a huge disappointment today was a day when the Raiders were in charge in the first half but holy cow the figurative Chiefs yes the absolute overdogs the favorites one despite spider the Raiders an awesome first half lead please can we please go to Charlene in Pennsylvania please Charlene hi here I am hey Charlene how you doing I'm doing very well go Phillies go Birds yeah go Birds also a couple of Phillies talk you know hey what's up uh well uh just wanted to know what my future was with DocuSign very different we don't want to be in DocuSign they don't know what they're doing they don't even I don't even know if they can figure out like who should run the company they got some new CEO this is a pandemic play and the pandemic be ended except for it's kind of back but no one's using DocuSign more than they used to I'm gonna I'll give you three some Peloton DocuSign and the Atlanta Braves I know I'm I'm sorry I'm in Zoom okay Mark in Iowa mark hi Jim I hope you're doing as well as your Eagles are well I'm as well this is my Eagles and my Phillies uh you know it's kind of a great time to be a Philly a Philadelphia fan as coach Nick said the other day and a great press conference how can I help well I'd like uh what you to know what you think about a stock of a company that's back down to its pre-pened bit price level I do know that from listening to you that the feds will raise the interest rate to the point that the wfh factor is lower so what indicators should I look for price point should I look for that would tell me that the dividend would be protective during these times for PG Proctor and Gamble all right parking you almost got one of the best balance sheets in the industry they're an amazing company it's obviously in free fall by Chapel trust has been buying here why because we think roller coaster going to come down be able to keep up the price and premium I got a piece later in the show that demonstrations that's why this could happen but right now it's hated as if they're going to pre-announce any day now I'm not sure they're going to but I would tell you that it's not expensive versus previous years in business I always say there's no give without a yet right now the give is you're giving up games in your portfolio and the fed's breaking the pain unless well and until we all make us money forget is you'll eventually rewarded with lower inflation followed by lower rates and then higher stock prices we'll make money tonight yesterday we covered the best and worst of the Dow and tonight we'll take you a closer look at the s p but get a sense of what's working not working there and boy there's some real fans think about Tony I'm still a fan of individual stock paying hey so let's do this let's go off the charts on a handful of names that could actually work in this apartment and since his own Julia borson is out with her new book when women leave and I'm learning more about what she learned and how it could apply to your asking strategy so stay with [
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