저자: MarkMobius및IonuțMazilu · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 비트코인이 현재 약 17,000달러 수준에서 등락하다 2023년 중 10,000달러 부근까지 하락할 수 있다는 전망. 주요 주장: 2017~2018년 사상 최고가와 2020년 하락 흐름을 비교하면 아직 하락 여지가 있으며, 대형 투자자들은 현재 시세보다 훨씬 낮은 가격을 예상한다고 언급. 하락 근거 및 요인: 8,000~12,000달러 범위 하락 가능성을 거론. 진행 중인 암호화폐 시장 자본 재편(대형 프로젝트 및 FTX 파산 등)과 추가 파산 가능성, 일부 거래소 유동성 문제 루머, 글로벌 경제위기 및 부동산·자동차 부품 등 연관 산업 위기가 원인으로 제시됨. 대체 코인 관련: 비트코인 연동성 때문에 일부 코인이 일시적으로 오를 수 있으나 지속 가능성은 낮고, 현재 어떤 알트코인도 비트코인과 독립적으로 더 나은 성과를 낼 기술·경제적 역량은 없다고 평가. 리스크: 하락 시점은 2023~2024년 초로 불확실하며, 구체적 원인 예측에는 한계가 있다고 발언.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin could crash to $10,000, a drop of over 40% from current prices. Investor Mark Mobius expects Bitcoin to hover around its current level of $17,000 for now, with a move to $10,000 expected in 2023. He will discuss this topic further with Ionuț Mazilu, president of the Romanian Association of Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies.
Hello, and thank you for joining us. There is a fairly large difference in this forecast that we are seeing now. What could cause the price of Bitcoin to drop so much in a few months?
It is true that there is a fairly large difference if we refer to a short period of time. But if we look at a longer period and compare the 2017–2018 all-time high with the 2020 decline, and follow the same direction from that period, we really see that there is still room for decline. That is precisely why large investors expect prices to be much lower than current market prices.
Now, it is very difficult to say what could cause Bitcoin to fall so drastically in such a period. We do not know whether it will reach these prices in 2023 or 2024. At the beginning, I mentioned a few interventions ago that Bitcoin could fall to somewhere between 8 and 12 thousand. Mobius sees it reported at a price of 10,000.
The causes that could account for such a decline would be multiple. We can start with those that have not yet ended, namely the various capitulations, let's say, of large projects in the crypto market, with the FTX bankruptcy and so on. It is possible that other bankruptcies will follow. There is even talk of, let's say, some inside information that Binance could also have some problems related to stablecoins, as Tether is making some cryptocurrency moves to show that it has no problem with liquidity. And if, for example, such news were true, that there is a problem with Binance or with other large exchanges in this market, of course it would lead to a new correction and automatically to a much greater decrease compared to the present. This would be one of the causes.
Other causes are the economic problems at the global level, the economic crisis, and the related issues connected to the economic crisis, i.e. the real estate crisis, the crises in auto parts and so on, because Bitcoin, from what we observe, has implications in almost all other related industries.
If we were to continue on this trend of estimates and forecasts, there are also cryptocurrencies that will gain ground in 2023. We can also see that all the estimates that have appeared recently on Bitcoin are not necessarily the most positive, but there are also cryptocurrencies that could go up in 2023 more than they did in 2022. It is very difficult to anticipate, considering that Bitcoin is the standard in this market, and every time Bitcoin moves, those movements somehow transpose onto the others. Here and there it is possible that there will be movements in some cryptocurrencies, but that does not mean they will be sustainable movements. If a certain cryptocurrency breaks away from Bitcoin's movements for a certain period of time, this does not mean that it will have a different future or will completely break away from the big movements in the crypto market. If such movements occur, they will certainly be isolated and will not have the support of sustainability. Personally, I do not think that any other cryptocurrency currently has the technical and economic capacity to break away so much from Bitcoin that it would have parallel movements and somehow outperform Bitcoin.
Thank you very much for the information. With great love, have a good day.
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