저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
요약 보기
금리 수준이 현재에 머문다면 주식은 터무니없이 싸다는 것이 핵심 결론이다. 금리는 중력과 같아 모든 밸류에이션에 큰 영향을 미친다. 연초 시장은 10년물 금리가 지금 수준까지 내려올 것을 예상하지 못했고, 이것이 주식 상승을 뒷받침했다. 2019년 1분기는 미국 주식에 큰 분기였다. 그러나 현재 밸류에이션이 매우 높아 향후 몇 년간 주식이 크게 오르기는 어려우며, 포트폴리오 기대수익은 보수적으로 가져야 한다. 버핏 자신의 포트폴리오는 주식 중심이며 미국 비중이 높고, 미국 경제가 장기적으로 잘 될 것이라는 낙관적 입장이다. 멍거는 금리를 제로 수준으로 내리고 각국이 돈을 찍어내 자산 가격을 끌어올렸다고 평가했다. 이는 부자를 더 부유하게 만들었으며 의도된 결과는 아니었지만 언젠가 조정될 것이라고 봤다. 트럼프 대통령이 금리 1%p 인하와 양적완화 재개를 원하는 것에 대해 멍거는 민주주의가 돈을 찍어 모든 문제를 해결할 수 있다고 믿게 되는 것을 크게 우려했다. 싱가포르처럼 부채가 0인 나라가 이상적이며, 미국과 유럽 정치인들이 돈 찍기를 배웠다는 점을 경계했다. 베네수엘라 같은 결말을 우려한다고 언급했다. 현대통화이론(MMT)에 대해 자국 통화로 빌리는 것은 당연하지만 그것이 해결책은 아니라고 지적했다. 완전고용, 5% 재정적자, 낮은 장기금리와 낮은 인플레이션의 조합은 10년 전에는 불가능하다고 생각했지만 지금은 나타나고 있다. 그럼에도 불구하고 이 조건들이 계속 유지될 수 없다고 믿으며, 그렇다면 주식은 터무니없이 싸다. 다만 이런 대화를 4~5년째 해왔고 금리는 여전히 2.5% 수준이며 인플레이션은 낮아 예상이 계속 빗나가고 있다고 인정했다. 결국 버핏은 관점을 바꾸지 않았다고 말했고, 주식이 싸다는 판단을 유지하지만 이는 3% 수준 금리가 지속된다는 큰 가정에 달려 있다고 덧붙였다. 멍거는 모든 것이 90% 하락해도 괜찮을 만큼 편안한 상태는 원하지 않는다고 농담조로 말했다.
다듬은 글
gentlemen just taking a look at what we've been watching with the markets today obviously things are under a little bit of pressure today but we have been looking at much higher markets if you go back to the Christmas Eve low and the concern that about what would the Fed what might or might not be doing since that time the Fed has sounded much more dovish and I just wonder if you couldn't talk a little bit about your own take on the markets and Bill again I've spoken with with Warren and Charlie earlier about this a little bit so how about your take when you hear that the Federal Reserve is probably not going to be raising interest rates anytime soon how does that change your outlook on on equities or equities versus Treasuries well the interest rate is like gravity and all these valuations are dramatically affected by it at the start of the year people didn't think that ten-year bond would be where it is today and that's provided a lot of lift so it was a big first quarter for US equities we still if you look forward or at these very high valuation levels and so it's hard to see that the mark will be gaining a lot over the next few years I think people should have fairly modest expectations on what what their portfolios will make in the year the years in front of us have you changed your your position so in your own portfolio as a result of this have you done any major no it's it's a very equity oriented portfolio it's overweight in the u.s.
even though it's got a lot of overseas exposure you know it's a bullish portfolio that the American economy over time will do well you know fortunately even if we have a few years here where markets aren't are doing that well you know we've been lucky we have a cushion the foundation continue to spend generously but I'm in prayer I'm amazed at how high the valuations are if you look broadly charlie do you think that well sure I think that if you drive interest rates down to zero and all the countries print money like crazy it's lifted the asset vote for everybody and I think it really is a didn't have anything else to do in the Great Recession and so they took the only weapon they had and used it aggressively I don't think we should quarrel that it did cause the people were already rich to get richer and but that wasn't done purpose or anything like that and I think that will correct over my automatically do you think we should still be using that weapon aggressively which is what president Trump would like to see happen he wants them to cut interest rates again I think he said by one percent and also push up quantitative easing once again but I am so afraid of a democracy getting the idea that you can just rent money to solve all problems and eventually I know that will fail Singapore which has a marvelous economy has zero debt if I were running the world I would like the United States to be in that position that is not typical that's that's nobody's position you know all these politicians in Europe and America have learned to print money and if we keep at these extraordinary measures for the Fed I guess not just the Fed here but central banks around the globe yes but who knows when money for any runs out of control and we at the end if you print too much you end up in something like Venezuela you're not suggesting that happens - no I don't like the ideas and both parties that you're a politician to say well we've learned as we printed all the one who want we don't have to raise taxes we just print we're on you share those concerns yeah I probably could not have conceived of a world recently is 10 years ago I'd learned not have conceived world where you would have full employment 5% budget deficits with actually the probability of those rising from that level and at the same time have the long bar the 3% I would have said that that couldn't happen and then then people now you have this modern monetary theory which there's no question he's you're borrowing any country should borrow money money and its own currency I made that that is not like it's some great discovery yeah and that's the point I mean it that doesn't solve anything just to say what it's much safer to currency but the the convergence of these factors would have seen impossible to me and generally if I feel something is impossible it's going to change over time I don't know in what way but I don't think we can continue to have these variables in this relationship now if we can then stocks are ridiculously cheap the one thing I will say though is this is a conversation I feel like we've had for at least four or five years right where you're watching and continuing to wait for these interest rates the yields to rise we're still sitting at two-and-a-half percent on the 10-year which and we're sitting with very very little inflation with a Federal Reserve that put a target for two percent on it not that long ago and it looks like Nirvana it looks like we've found the promised land where we just essentially money doesn't cost anything and you can put lots of money and have full employment and no inflation and I would have thought that something would have happened before now I don't know what would have happened but I didn't I wouldn't think you could have these things in in at these these levels that long-term rates inflation rates budget deficits and to have that be a stable situation for a long period of time and I still believe that but I so far I'm wrong so in the meantime you haven't really changed how you I think stocks are ridiculously cheap compared if you believe that you're going to have the 3% interest 30-year bonds makes sense that's a big if though that's what makes going to work well this three so it's comfortable if everything goes down not by 90 percent so we're not a fair cross-section I'm sorry Charlie what was that say this threesome is comfortable if everybody if everything goes down by 90 percent no arrests yeah but we wouldn't want that kind of a world that remain to everybody else you
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