저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
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결론: 버핏은 우버 IPO를 사지 않겠다고 밝히며, 과열된 IPO 시장을 경계하고 투자 전 근거를 명확히 설명할 수 없으면 투자하지 말라고 강조한다. 기업 인수 경쟁: 버핏은 타인의 돈을 빌려 쓰는 경쟁자들 때문에 기업 인수 가격이 높아져 버크셔에 불리하다고 말한다. 이런 경쟁자들은 하락 리스크 없이 수익을 얻는 구조라고 비판했다. 현금 보유와 주식 vs 채권: 버크셔가 많은 현금을 보유하는 이유를 묻자, 버핏은 장기 국채(3% 수준)보다 미국 기업 주식을 선호한다고 답한다. 채권 금리가 매우 낮으면 중력처럼 주식을 끌어내리는 힘이 약해져 주식이 상대적으로 매력적이라는 논리다. 우버 IPO: 버핏은 우버에 대해 특별한 감정은 없다고 하면서도, IPO는 판매 수수료와 열기가 높아 대중에게 팔기 좋은 상품이라 최고의 투자처가 되기 어렵다고 주장한다. 자신들이 IPO를 산 적은 사실상 없다고 밝힌다. 과열된 후기 IPO: 찰리 멍거 등과의 대화에서 최근 IPO 기업들은 막대한 사모 자본을 이미 투입받고도 큰 적자와 추가 자금 필요성이 있으며, 우선주 구조 등으로 일반 투자자에게 불리할 수 있다고 지적한다. 투자 원칙: 버핏은 주식을 살 때 'GM을 560억 달러에 사는 이유', '버크셔를 5000억 달러에 사는 이유'를 한 장의 종이에 적을 수 없다면 투자하지 말라고 강조한다. 이웃이 오를 거라 한다거나 CNBC에서 떠들기 때문이라는 이유는 부적절하다는 것이다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없으며, 우버 및 IPO 시장에 대해 전반적으로 신중하고 부정적인 입장이다.
다듬은 글
you both have made some comments about it recently to us that you think prices are very high in terms of what you have to pay for a premium for buying a company outright is that it's telling more competition for buying companies by people who are using other people's money and therefore have less sensitivity to price and who are willing to borrow a whole lot more and are being offered the ability to borrow a whole lot more with less than the way of covenants the competition is tough on it and make it part of the upside and I love the idea of not none of the downside in fact they make money on the downside yeah so that is really terrible competition for us it gets worse every year is that why you're sitting on such a big pile of cash at this point part of the residual on the other hand you know I would much rather own many common stocks the bonds and of course that's I think stocks compared to bonds and you have to compare that they are the ultimen we've talked about bond yields and effect being gravity and when they're very low there's very little growth with gravity to pull down stocks and that condition that's exists today I would so much rather own America the business of America then get a 3% for 30 years from the government that and people were making those choices all the time in the investment world that stocks actually in many cases they look like perfectly intelligent investments charlie you agree with that sure let's talk about some of the IPOs that have been coming to market recently because there has been a bit of a fervor many of these IPOs have done very well although not all of them who lift shares are under pressure uber comes to market this week and Warren you mentioned this weekend you talked once again about how you had looked at uber about 18 months ago and and passed on that what do you think about Hoover coming to market now well because I looked at I really don't want to that discuss I don't have any special feelings about it than any other coming to Martin but we I would say that in in 54 years well I don't think Berkshire has ever bought a delicious I mean the idea of saying the best place in the world I can put my money as something where all the selling incentives are there commissions are higher you know the animal spirits are rising that that's going to be better than a thousand other things I can buy where there is no similar selling enthusiasm and the desire to get the deal done an extra commissions that's the single best thing to buy at a given day I mean it's I can't think that time we've ever done ever bought an idea yeah never but how could it be the best single thing to use your money for in a given day is there something that you've got they got everybody the world out pushing it you know it just doesn't make any sense I mean I'm not saying that necessarily what we're buying is going to work out better but there have to always be better things then one single issue if you make one decision on investing if you can't find something among all the choices we see that is better than something that and like I say you know the Commission's used I come down I think now on this but I mean the highest Commission thing that has docked salesmen's gets out of surgeries was the new issue so yep all this push why don't we like to buy things we're nobody making a dimes on to us charlie just specifically on some of these companies and I won't talk about uber versus any of the others but a lot of these companies are coming very late in the cycle they've had massive private capital that's been put to work to this point and they they still have massive losses in the need for more capital what's even worse than that some of them have preference for each round and so the rounds are really fair rounds there's a lot of lying in modern finance so you're not in favor of any of these Buehler lying what what do you think of these I asked this because we have a lot of retail investors who watch and who are looking at this and they feel the excitement behind it wonderful advice and was about my IBS whatever you buy a stock let's say your bike and General Motors one point four billion stairs out will say the stocks for it's a little below that you should be able to take out a a one-page sheet of paper and say I am buying the General Motors company that's 56 billion dollars because and if you can't answer that question if you can't write that out then you don't go on to something else and if you're buying Berkshire you have to say I am buying Berkshire Hathaway at five hundred billion dollars because and if the answer isn't something you can write you can't say I'm buying it because my neighbor thinks it's got to go up or because you know everybody's talking about it on on CNBC this morning or whatever it may be I like a right around over yeah no yeah you have yeah that's the question you answer now when you buy you know buy groceries buy everything else you can answer that question but if you can't answer it on something that you're involving your savings you know may here's for why why in the world should use why should you be doing it you
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