저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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Burry의 13F 포트폴리오를 분석하며, 금(SPRT)은 인플레이션·위기 헤지 수단으로 장기 보유 의미가 있으나 자체 현금흐름이 없음을 설명. BAT는 저평가된 현금창출 기업으로 제시. 알리바바·JD닷컴 등 중국 인터넷주는 주가가 실적 악화를 반영 중이라 회복 여지가 있으나 지정학·규제 리스크 존재. 포트폴리오의 42%는 미확인 자산으로 해석 주의 필요.
다듬은 글
this SEC filing released last week gives us a snapshot of Michael bur's stock portfolio it shows he sold every single share in 14 companies he previously owned used the cash to double down on some of the ones he decided to keep and invested in five brand new stocks to most people his portfolio might just look like a random assortment of businesses but when you look a little deeper there are some very distinct themes big investments in particular Industries countries and even asset classes so let's take a look at Michael Barry's $200 million portfolio IO a deep dive into the 16 stocks revealed by his latest us filing and also a stock that isn't listed one that's hidden in UK regulatory filings a stock that's actually his biggest known position but let's start with the clear outlier of the portfolio for the first time Michael Barry has invested in the Sprat physical gold trust as the name suggests it's an ETF stock that allows you to invest in physical gold without the inconvenience of buying and storing it yourself the value of Barry's gold investment is about $7.6 million so at just under 4% of the portfolio it's his sixth largest position the trust holds about 3 million ounces of gold at the Royal Canadian Mint some gold ETFs that you can invest in will essentially just try and mimic the price of gold over time whereas this one in particular gives you actual ownership of physical gold gold is currently priced around $2,400 per ounce if you've owned some you've done pretty well it's up about 90% in The Last 5 Years and 21% in the last 6 months the strong performance of gold in the last few years is one of the reasons why a lot of people are attracted to invest in it the Sprat fact sheet actually shows that gold has even outperformed the US Stock Market since 1999 which is true technically but it's also a little misleading the starting point they chose just happens to be the peak of the internet bubble if we measured the performance of gold versus the stock market from the bottom of that crash their returns are about the same and we can't forget the other important piece dividends gold doesn't do anything it just sits there looking pretty but businesses earn profits and some of that is distributed to stockholders as dividends so when you include dividends the stock market has beaten Gold by about 2% per year for 20 years but hey gold has done pretty well for investors over time and it's been particularly valuable during times of crisis when a recession hits or some kind of problem challenges financial markets stocks usually go down a lot while on the other hand gold usually goes up the market for buying and selling gold has some very unique characteristics and understanding them made it clear to me why Michael Barry didn't buy gold in 2022 2023 but in 2024 why he's buying it right now provided an answer to the many questions raised from the warnings he's been giving in his Twitter posts to understand Barry's gold thesis we need to understand the factors that influence its price which in the case of a commodity like gold is looking at the key supply and demand factors let's start with the supply side obviously the more gold that exists the less valuable it is per ounce best estimates currently suggest that about 212,000 tons of gold has has been mined throughout history and on top of that another 2200 to 3200 tons are mined each year underground gold that hasn't been mined yet is categorized as either reserves or resources which is essentially saying whether it's either economically viable to mine it today or whether it's not the US Geological Survey estimated that Global reserves are currently about 50,000 tons but while the supply of gold does increase every year and will do so for the foreseeable future most of the supply of gold is already above ground so price fluctuations in the price of gold are likely to be mostly influenced by buyers and sellers of above ground gold or in other words the demand for gold about 45% of gold has been made into jewelry and it's the largest source of annual demand this has been declining somewhat in recent decades but Gold's durability and it being the least reactive to other metals make it a very desirable choice for luxury accessories India and China are the biggest gold jewelry markets accounting for about 50% of sales the next 177% of gold is held by central banks around the world many countries keep some of their Reserve Assets in Gold the US for example has 8,000 tons of gold worth about $700 billion these reserves for the most part don't change the US hasn't bought or sold a meaningful amount for decades and fast growing economies like China have been big buyers of gold the last category besides the 15% held in the other category is the 22% held in bars and coins this portion of gold includes people buying gold as a store of value and relevant to us it includes ETFs like the Sprout trust which Barry has invested in many investors view gold as a hedge against inflation it's no secret that the US dollar has been declining in value and it's actually been declining at an accelerating rate in the last 15 years take a look at the US money supply it's been growing a lot recently mostly due to quantitative easing practices by the Federal Reserve if the US government needs to spend a lot of money quickly like during the pandemic the FED effectively prints money and lends it to the government and what does that mean well there's just more dollars chasing the same amount of goods and services so the prices of those goods and services go up but the same thing also happens to Gold there's more dollars chasing the same amount of gold so its price Also Rises so Barry buying gold likely means he wants to protect some of his funds assets from the possibility of another spike in inflation and he said exactly that in a tweet last year he said inflation has peaked but it's not the last peak of this cycle we're likely to see CPI lower possibly negative in the second half of 2023 and the US in recession by any definition the FED will cut and the government will stimulate and we will have another inflation Spike it's not hard the idea is that the US might face something similar to what happened in the 1970s interest rates were raised and it slowed inflation but dropping rates back down too soon led to inflation coming back just a few years later okay but let's say that you were very confident that something like that was going to happen how do we even know that gold is even a good inflation hedge it does have a history of rising during periods of uncertainty so you could argue for it being a hedge against an economic crisis of some sort but against inflation specifically maybe not if gold was a really good US inflation hedge then you'd expect the real price of gold to be somewhat constant over time that's not what we see gold has risen with the Consumer Price Index but it fluctuates around it a lot in the '90s gold actually didn't keep up with inflation but in the last 15 years it way outpaced inflation gold is a global commodity so of course its price is influenced by things other than the US dollar but that also reduces its efficacy as a hedge the last point I'll make on gold before we look at Barry's other Investments is that at the end of the day gold has no intrinsic value because it doesn't produce any cash flows when you buy gold You're simply hoping that someone else pays more for it than you did and so if you do have gold in your portfolio it's most likely going to be a small percentage used as a hedge against economic uncertainty the rest of your portfolio like Michael Barry might contain businesses that produce a lot of cash flow like Barry's biggest known position which is in British American Tobacco It's a UK listed business so you actually won't find it on the SEC filing the investment is worth $10.5 million or just over 5% of the portfolio the company is the largest tobacco company in the world and is the owner of some of the biggest cigarette brands like Dunhill and Windfield to offset the declining use of tobacco products they've also built a large non-smoke business business with Vape Brands like vuse recently they announced they're aiming for 50% of Revenue to be from smokeless products by 2035 since 2017 the stock has been a disaster they've faced increased regulatory pressures particularly from the FDA and they've slashed their dividend which investors were not too happy about but the business for the most part has produced pretty stable revenues and profits in the last few years they're producing about 10 billion pounds of free cash flow per year the Stock's Enterprise Value which I kind of think of as the price of the whole business is around 90 billion so it's a cheap business producing a ton of free cash flow which is exactly what you would expect in most cases from Michael Barry now the next big theme in the portfolio is China Barry's second and third biggest stocks are Alibaba and jd.com which he added to his portfolio in the last quarter and he now also owns Buu most e-commerce and internet-based companies have seen large stock decline since 2021 after benefiting from increased online shopping Trend during the pandemic years their Prof have fallen quite sharply as their costs have risen but in the last couple of years things seem to be improving again the stock market is essentially pricing these stocks as if their profits are going to decline in a meaningful way over time so if that doesn't happen then Barry is likely going to do reasonably well on these Investments Barry and anyone else can invest in these Chinese companies on the American stock exchanges through what's called an ADR but that doesn't mitigate some of the risks that come with owning them the geopolitical tensions between the US and China are no secret and and they're likely going to get worse as China becomes a greater economic power in particular as Alibaba has grown into a bigger and bigger Global business Empire it's faced increased regulatory pressure from its government these are some fairly important wild cards that could affect how these businesses are allowed to operate or even if us investors or foreign investors for example are even allowed to own those stocks but what about this huge piece of Barry's portfolio it's over $80 million well about 42% of Barry's portfolio is simply unknown to us we know that it's unknown to us because there's another filing called an avd which shows us the total assets under management but we don't get to see what it is it could be real estate but it could also include Commodities held directly it could include short positions where he's betting that a stock will go down and it also of course could include cash
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