Costco, Amazon, Walmart and Shopify could win the 'Easter rally,' Jim Cramer says

요약 보기

부활절 랠리를 노린 소비재·이커머스 종목 단기 매매 전략 소개. 결론: 코스트코, 아마존, 월마트, 쇼피파이가 부활절 랠리의 수혜주가 될 수 있다는 주장. 코스트코: 최근 흐름은 부진하나 과거 34년간 부활절 직전 개장일 매수 후 2거래일 보유 시 매년 수익, 올해 수익률 43포인트, 최적 매수일은 3월 26일로 제시. 아마존: 최근 한 달 크게 하락했으나 상장 이후 23년간 부활절 직후 개장일 매수 후 3거래일 보유 시 매년 수익, 10% 손절 권장, 4월 봄철 상승 경향 기대. 월마트: 임금 등 이슈로 주가 부진, 몇 주 전 바닥 형성 주장, 부활절 전날 매수 후 5거래일 보유 전략이 과거 유효, 장기적으로 4월이 좋은 달이라고 언급. 쇼피파이: 작년 급등 후 성장주에서 필수소비재로 자금 이동으로 300포인트 이상 하락, 2015년 상장으로 데이터 적음에도 부활절 직후 급등 패턴이 뚜렷하며 4~5월까지 상승 지속 가능성 언급. 리스크: 과거 계절성 패턴 기반이며 통계 표본이 짧은 종목(쇼피파이)도 존재, 아마존 손절선 10%는 역사적으로 발동되지 않았다고 언급. 출연자 전망: 크레이머는 윌리엄스의 계절성 분석을 인용하며 이 전략이 강력한 트레이딩 기회가 될 수 있다고 강조.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. i want you to consider the daily chart of long my favorite and an own uh owned by my uh charitable trust costco right the black line is the recent action you know and it's been pretty bad the red line is the seasonal pattern going back for 34 years williams points out that if you bought costco in the opening the day before easter okay before the easter holiday and then you held it for two days before selling it into the next profitable opening you would have made money get this every year for the last 34 years and then that profit was 43 points this year he says the optimal data buy would be march 26 so now we're talking friday some people would say it started already today the market was pretty bad today let's use friday all right now how about one that everyone i mean people have given up on this one i can't believe it let's talk about amazon here's another fabulous retailer that's pulled back hard over the last month because it's widely perceived as a covered winner and therefore a pandemic uh let's say uh cure loser all right a group of wall street uh wall street has really decided to kick this to the curb amazon has been able to rebound off its lows for the past couple weeks including a nice one today williams thinks you could get more lift thanks to the easter rally again this one's been terrible and a lot of people have given up on amazon saying look once we have the great reopening this is the last stock they want to own do you know in the last 23 years since amazon came public what this trade has done listen this according to williams if you bought this one on the opening of the first trading day after easter then held the stock for three days before selling to the next profitable opening you would have made money every year for the last 23 years every year he recommends using a 10 stop loss order to protect yourself but historically i mean that stop loss has never kicked in every year wow of course that's just one little trade what's more important to williams is the general direction of the seasonal pattern so look at that red line it bottoms in late march then spends the next few months headed higher isn't it interesting that this is right when everyone has given up on amazon that i know incredible when it comes to amazon history shows that the stock tends to put on a nice run in the spring williams is betting that happens again this year and the odds your favorite okay then there's walmart oh boy this is hated right another essential retailer with top-notch management team that seen it stocks suffer now plummet plumbing this is where they change the wages and stuff and i thought mcmillan did the great thing and and people just hate it okay i did walmart really do anything wrong though really no its stock just became less enticing because so many of the marginal retailers are working here or were working until today but like amazon walmart looks like it's bottom a couple of weeks ago it's just finding its time more importantly when you look at we at williams seasonal forecast get this look at this it's incredibly bullish right now historically the best way to play the easter trade with walmart has been to buy the stock at the opening the day before easter then hold it for five days before selling it into the next up opening longer term april tends to be a pretty good month for the stock so for those who are just thinking that's too slick you're doing fine now if you really want to take a chance you got to go with one of my favorites and this is incredible i want you to check out the daily chart of shopify you know i mean we just think this one's the greatest the software company helps small medium-sized businesses set up their own e-commerce operations this thing has had a spectacular run last year because the pandemic forced everyone in retail to go either digital or go under however shopify i didn't mean to laugh at that but it's true however shopify has fallen more than 300 points from its recent high that's the rotation out of growth stocks into the non-essentials it's been horrible because shopify only came public in 2015 there's not as much data for williams to use to construct a seasonal forecast but based on what we have the seasonal pattern is pretty darn clear shopify tends to roar shortly after east at easter right and like i gotta tell you with the stock continuing to run through april and into may don't you have to try it right look at that does that mean it's time to buy the essential retailers and e-commerce enablers here generalize if williams is right i think you're getting a powerful trader g