Tom Lee: Ethereum Is "a 25x Minimum" ($22,000 Is His Low Target)

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Tom Lee는 암호화폐 강세장이 2025년 8월경 시작됐고 10월 5일이 4년 주기 저점이라고 주장. 이더리움이 5년간 횡보(베이스)한 뒤 최소 25배 상승 가능하다며 목표가 $22,000(하단)·$62,000(상단 시나리오)을 제시. 근거는 기관 참여, 200일선 돌파 통계, 상속 자산 이동, 디지털자산 트레저리(DAT)의 물량 흡수, AI 에이전트 결제의 암호화폐 레일 전환. 자신이 회장을 맡은 Bitwise 연계 이해상충 가능성 있음.

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01. I think given tokenization, AI, everything I talked about, the Dats and the wealth transfer, [snorts] it's a 25 x minimum. I don't think you're bullish enough. This is the biggest crypto cycle ahead. That's Tom Lee, Fundstrat's head of research and chairman of Bitwise, the biggest ether treasury company on Token 2049's main stage in Singapore.

02. He made his case in 20 minutes. I've got 20 minutes to talk to you about something I think is very important, which is congratulations. We are at the start of a crypto bull market. And if I had to give it a date, I'm going to say it was August, but [snorts] you might be doubting if it's a crypto bull market because people think it's fragile, but that's exactly what happens at the start of a bull.

03. Why so sure? He starts with who else is saying it. The first is we have institutional backing. I mean, it's not just Franklin saying a bull market is starting, it's Fidelity, BlackRock, all the major players. I've never seen this in the past three cycles of crypto winters, never seen institutions declare this.

04. Next, a chart. In August, Bitcoin climbed back above its 200-day moving average, a line traders use to tell bull markets from bear markets. But since 2010, Bitcoin averages 80% positivity over the next 6 months, 200% gains. Ethereum averages 290%. Okay. Now, you can see this on a chart cuz I can make it simple.

05. These are the other crosses above the 200-day. Out of the last nine crosses, eight were bull market starts. Second, the summer. Ether bottomed near $1,560 in late June. Then, Lee says, "Crypto beat every other major asset." And then we have proof positive because crypto in the third quarter of this year, June to September, was the best performing macro asset by a country mile.

06. The AI stocks were down in the quarter. We had very terrible financial conditions. We had a hawkish Fed, surging oil, global bond yields going up, and tight financial conditions. Yet, crypto outperformed. That's what happens in a bull market. And then, there's the clock. Bitcoin has tended to bottom about every 4 years.

07. Lee puts the cycle's low on one exact day. And lastly, I know it's a bull because the 4-year cycle bottomed. So, if you set your clock, the bottom was October 5th. So, we are 2 days past the bottom for crypto. So, in short, it's all in the math. Uh we are in a bull market. But here's the thing. This may be the biggest bull market uh we've ever seen, okay?

08. So, I'm going to give you four reasons that this bull market is different than other bull markets, okay? So, as Joe Lubin says, "You're not bullish enough." His four reasons. First, tokenization. Wall Street moving stocks and bonds onto blockchains, which we covered in our last Tom Lee video. The second gets far less attention,

09. inherited money. But Vlad says it's a 100 trillion over the next 10 years. We can see this. This is from the IRS. In the last crypto bull market, okay? There was 400 billion dollars of inherited wealth. In the next cycle, it's probably close to 1 and 1/2 to 2 trillion. This is a baby boomer or older passing away, it's inherited by a millennial.

10. That allocation goes from bonds to equities and crypto. Massive, massive inflows. Quick favor. If this is useful, subscribe. We break down a new call every day. Reason three, crypto treasury companies. Lee chairs, Bitmain, the biggest one for ether, so keep that in mind. The Ethereum dads own 7% of crypto supply today.

11. Bitcoin owns The Bitcoin dads own 6 and 1/2% The Solana dads 3%, but look at hyper liquid. I mean, it's been a very successful chain and project, but part of it is the hyper liquid dad owns 14% of the supply. When you take out supply, take it out of the market, and then you have a bull market, guess what?

12. The price is going to go up a lot more. And the Ethereum dads own the largest of the big three, 7% of the supply. That's That's not, you know, in the last bull market, that didn't exist. That's why if you think about what's the upside for ETH, I think you're underestimating how much it can move. Reason four is AI.

13. Lee says the money that AI agents spend will run on crypto rails. They consider agentic payments the grand unification of AI and crypto because AI agents are going to carry money. They might carry a Visa card in their wallet, but most likely they're going to carry a crypto wallet. Then a story. Lee recently had dinner with venture investors he first met a decade ago when he started researching Bitcoin.

14. So, imagine 10 years ago Bitcoin was under a thousand. And Bitcoin's now 80,000 today. So, these venture capitalists, when I had dinner with them, I expected them to be like living in private jets because at a minimum if Bitcoin was an 80 times return, their ventures could have been a hundred or thousand times.

15. [clears throat] But, here's what they said. They said that their venture returns have been okay, but they wish they just bought Bitcoin. Okay? And that's what I'm telling you now. You want to have at the maximum exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum and even Solana in this cycle. Which brings us to his biggest number.

16. Ether's price hasn't made a new record in years. Lee calls that a base. Here's Ethereum's price. It's been consolidating for 5 years. You know, the longer the base, the bigger the breakout. The last time Ethereum consolidated, it had a 227X. And then that's the prior time to that, 54X. I think given tokenization, AI, everything I talked about, the DATs and the wealth transfer, it's a 25X minimum.

17. Then, he put prices on it, $22,000 per Ether, which he called the low target, and a second scenario at 62,000. He tied both to Bitmain's share price, which we're leaving out. His closing advice came from the late Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's long-time partner. What I want to just leave you with is the big money is not in the buying and the selling, but in the waiting.

18. From the great Charlie Munger. He is the original hoddle. Okay? So, just to conclude, this is the biggest crypto bull market, and you're not bullish enough. In today's numbers, Ether is near $2,400. 25 times, that is about 60,000, close to his higher scenario. The honest risk, Ether fell more than 60% from last October's high to June's low.

19. And this isn't financial advice. One favor, if you got something out of this, subscribe. It costs nothing and it keeps this channel making these everyday. Is Ether really a 25 x from here? Tell me in the comments.