Labor market is decoupling from growth, says Mohamed El-Erian of Allianz

요약 보기

정부 셧다운 후 첫 '정상' 고용보고서를 앞두고, 성장은 견조하나 고용이 이를 따라가지 못하는 디커플링이 핵심 신호라고 진단. 컨센서스는 비농업 고용 약 5.5만명, 실업률 약 4.5%로 큰 변화 없음. 연준은 내각에서 인플레이션과 고용 사이에서 분열되어 있고, 이달 회의는 동결이 유력하며 2026년 1~2회 인하 신호 예상. 전략적 명확성은 새 연준 의장 취임 전까지 어려울 것으로 봄. AI 도입은 생산성 향상과 노동시장 충격 사이의 트레이드오프로 제시되며, 기업 수준의 도입 정책이 필요하다고 주장.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. This Friday marks the first so-called clean jobs report since the government shutdown. It could have big implications as well for what the Fed may do at its next meeting later this month. Joining us now, Muhammad Alian. He's Alan's chief economic adviser. Nice to see you. Welcome back. Nice to see you.

02. Thanks for having me. Yeah. So, this is going to be data that we can trust. Yeah. This will be more normal data, cleaner data as you called it. And what's interesting is the consensus forecast isn't looking for anything dramatic. Pretty constant job growth at about 55,000, pretty constant unemployment rate about 4 and a.5% and pretty constant labor force participation.

03. So the meat of this report is going to be the details that will tell us the extent of cooling of the labor market and most importantly is it demand driven or is it supply driven? I mean, if you listen to Neil Kashkari on on Squawkbox yesterday, which I presume you did, he paints a picture that is not great.

04. The job market is clearly cooling. He said there's no question about that. We see this in in the statistics. So, I think that there's a clear signal that the labor market is is cooling. What does that mean to you? So, first, there's a clear signal that the labor market is decoupling from growth. So growth remains really solid, but the labor market is not keeping up with that growth.

05. Job creation is not keeping up with that growth. That is the big dilemma we having, which is this decoupling. Um, beyond that, the Fed is torn. You know as well as I do, Scott, that if you're worried about inflation, there's reasons to be worried. If you're worried about your second part of your mandate, there's reasons to be worried.

06. You have federal officials that have different sensitivities, so they're all over the place. and you have no strategic or leadership unifiers in this mix. So the Fed is going to be very divided regardless of what comes out on Friday. So I mean given those tensions that you you paint, what do you think they'll do later this month?

07. So I think they'll do nothing later this month. They're going to remain on hold. They will signal one to two cuts this in in in 2026 as a whole. But what I think is the problem is they're not going to give us clear indication of what is the strategic view. Do they like me believe that we are on the cusp of significant productivity improvements that bring up the speed for non-inflationary growth or will they stay very data dependent and therefore torn between the different parts of their mandate.

08. I I fear that we're not going to get the strategic clarity until a new Fed chair comes in. I mean, the the the bigger issue and one I know you're thinking about and for that matter writing about because you wrote about it in the New York Times on New Year's Day in a piece called the global economy must adapt to avoid tumult this year is the impact that AI is going to have on labor in general.

09. You point to productivity gains which obviously impact how the Fed needs to think about the labor market in general, but the other side of that coin is theoretically what it just means for labor in the future. You said, quote, "We need coherent AI adoption policies, one that attempt to maximize output gains while limiting labor market shocks designed and carried out in collaboration with leading companies." How do we do that?

10. Well, first there's a handful of companies that are thinking about this issue. In particular, thinking about how do we have an adoption policy that not only enhances productivity, but that does so without destroying jobs. Think of what Accenture is doing, of what Google is doing, of what Walmart is doing.

11. These are companies that are thinking about adoption policies. Others are in a very different place. And I think that we need to spend more time talking about working with AI than just talking about working on AI. You know, most of the oxygen is consumed by these incredible advances. Is it going to be chat GPT?

12. Is it going to be Gemini 3? What what is going to happen to Open AI in terms of the marketplace? But the real issue right now is adoption. And we're not talking about this.