Why Ed Yardeni is still bullish on stocks overall in 2026

요약 보기

Yardeni는 2026년 S&P500 목표 7700을 유지하며 강세를 견지한다. AI 투자에 피로감이 쌓여 Mag7 비중을 줄이고 금융·산업재·헬스케어(특히 바이오)를 늘릴 것이라 말한다. 반도체 수요는 여전히 강하다고 본다. 재정·통화 정책이 함께 완화적이며 2025년 소급 적용된 세법으로 세금 환급이 커져 경기에 부양 효과가 있다고 본다. 다만 채권 시장이 재정·통화 부양 조합에 반발해 금리가 오를 수 있다는 우려를 언급한다. 귀금속도 강세가 이어질 수 있다고 한다.

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01. Ed Jardenni is still bullish on stocks overall with a 7700 price target next year. And he joins us now. He is of course the president of Ed Yardi Research. Ed, happy new year. Thanks for coming on. Uh thank you. Are are you negative on the Mag 7 or just think there are better opportunities elsewhere?

02. I have a little bit of AI fatigue. I I don't know about you, but it's been uh kind of wearing to be in this AI battles on a daily basis to try to figure out who the winner is going to be to figure out if all this capital spending is going to pay off. Uh and I I think that's uh going to spread to uh other investors.

03. I think it already has and we may see that maybe the valuation multiples on some of these AI trades start to come off. Doesn't mean that technologies uh finished for the year ahead. As you said, semiconductors are doing quite well and there's still going to be a lot of demand for semiconductors, but I I would put more money in financials, which we've been overweing.

04. We'd put more money in industrials, which we've also been o overweighting, and healthcare. We haven't talked about at all. And we think that might be a sector that does uh reasonably well this year, especially biotech. Yeah. You know what? I I don't tell anybody, but I also have a little AI fatigue.

05. And being here at the NASDAQ, Ed, is appropriate because I was here back in 1999 before half our audience was probably even born. And we were talking about all the capital spending that was going into the guts, the infrastructure part of the internet, the global the global crossings of the world. I'm not saying this is going to end like that, but do I think to your point, the spending in one group of companies can only last so long before you have to look somewhere else.

06. Correct. And and again, I I think what really has changed uh over the past six months or so, maybe ever since Michael Bur uh pointed out that maybe there's some known unknowns when it comes to the AI trade. I think uh there's a lot a lot of uncertainty there and u I'm not sure that these stocks merit this kind of valuation multiple.

07. Maybe Google does right now. I happen to own some personally. So I have to disclose that. But that could change tomorrow or not tomorrow but uh next week it could change u if uh some other company comes up with a you know a new new thing that's uh a better chip that's cooler doesn't require as much energy and there's so much money being spent in this area that innovation is occurring at the speed of light.

08. Yeah. I'm going to use a dirty word utilities. And I don't mean like power utilities because those have been largely red-hot, but when you look at an an Apple maybe and some of these big tech AI names, I do wonder how much growth might be left in them. They're massive cash flow generators, which is why I said the word utility ed, but I think to your point, there are there are faster companies and sectors where you can get the earnings growth that will drive the multiple that will drive the returns.

09. Where are those? You mentioned healthcare, financials, industrials. I think uh materials, the precious metals obviously have been doing very well and may very well uh continue that way simply because uh we're looking at a year where monetary and fiscal policies are going to be a very stimulative tag team.

10. Uh monetary policy has been easing since 2024. They've been lowering interest rates. The bond market hasn't cooperated. Bond yields have stayed elevated. But still the Fed now is doing another version of quantitative easing at least through the middle of the year or at least in tax till tax season. And in tax season there's going to be bigger than usual refunds because uh the big beautiful bill was made retroactive to the beginning of 2025.

11. So there's going to be a lot of stimulus coming at the economy. So the economy should be fine. I kind of wonder whether the bond vigilantes are going to act up and say, you know, they don't really like this stimulative combination of fiscal and monetary policy.