저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 내러티브가 약해지며 서로 다른 테마로 자금이 이동해 변동성이 커진 시장. 실적과 GDP는 견고하나 밸류에이션 조정과 기술적 오버슈팅이 겹침. 은행주 약세, 금·은 급락. 장기적으로 AI는 여전히 강력하다고 평가. 워시 연준 의장 지명은 긍정적이며 6월 이후 금리 인하 가능성 언급. 관세 부담은 미국 수입기업이 지고 있다고 진단.
다듬은 글
Last year, AI was the hero. This year, Counter AI is the story. And Muhammad Alerian says that confusion is exactly why your portfolio is whipsawing while earnings and GDP look rock solid. If you look at the two-day picture of the VIX, it started to spike today. And yet, financials have been ugly all week.
So, this is the volatility that results from the lack of a dominant narrative. Last year, I thought AI was the dominant narrative. Last year, AI was the dominant narrative and it took us to really nice places. This year, the counter AI was the counter narrative was the narrative. Don't worry about AI, look at the nonI because AI is going to disrupt everything.
And now we're realizing that that's not a strong narrative. So when we lack this narrative, we should ex expect a lot more volatility. But Liz, this is where a lot of opportunities happen because in a market today, everything goes down. I mean, look at the regional banks here, Muhammad. Down five and a quarter% for the KBWB and you see the KRE is following right down into Crimson Territory.
And you can't really have a big rally without the financials. But all week long, Morgan Stanley, City Bank, Wells Fargo, they've been clocked. JP Morgan hasn't done so well either. down more than I think earlier was down 6% for the week and they had been taken to very high levels. Why? Because people were rotating out of AI into something else where valuations looked more attractive.
But if you don't have fundamentals supporting that, this is what's going to happen. I'm not too worried to tell you the truth. I think this year is going to be one of volatility. There's going to be opportunities for investors, many opportunities for investors. But we have to understand we are in a period of market volatility.
Earnings look good. Uh forget the fact that we got a very robust jobs number for the month of January. It was nearly double what was expected, but more than 350 S&P companies have reported earnings. 76% have beaten on profit. 72% beaten on revenue. So far this year, and this may surprise our our listeners, earnings are up 13 plus% year-over-year.
Why is the market not reading this? and people who aren't are they making a mistake so there are three factors that determine markets as you know fundamentals and if you look at fundamentals we have strong growth 4% strong earning and we have nominal GDP of about 7% that's great for companies so fundamentals are fine the second issue is valuations and we we got to pretty lofty valuations that is what's being corrected and the third is just technicals you know this market tends to overshoot on the way up and overshoots on the way down.
Well, uh, it it overshot early this morning. Well, maybe it didn't. I don't know. But with the Dow falling at some one point down about 700 points. Would you have jumped in there and bought some of the weaker names? So, I think all of us have to have a list of names that we're comfortable with. And when we see them trading down,
like Disney, Disney's down 5%, Cisco, as you say, you know, as we talked about, down 12%. Apple is a real struggle here, down 4.8%. 8% right and and I I think the names I'm thinking of are very strong balance sheet very strong so think of a Google for me okay that that is the sort of name that is attractive here but we didn't even go to where there are massive I mean we didn't go to silver down 10 11% today we I mean we've seen the most speculative part get hit really hard so this is a a general deleveraging and I think it's actually going to put us in a better place Liz
silver gold in the red. Oil is in the red. You've got uh West Texas Intermediate down 2.6%. When you say rotating into something that is better, where is that? So, it is building portfolios from the bottom up. For a long time, we wanted to build them from the top down. We fell in love with the AI theme.
Is that over? Are you you're not saying it's over? Absolutely not. I think AI is very powerful, but we are in phase two and three of AI. So, what is what are people talking about AI today? is no longer those working on AI is those working with AI and then you start wor worrying about will AI disrupt this sector what about that sector I think this is actually healthy we're getting smarter about this very important transformation that's facing us
okay I did continue I want to push you on where where would be the areas that haven't been totally drenched in high valuations and that aren't picked over so they are things like emerging markets private private credit. Massive opportunities there where we see the opportunities that we saw 15 years ago.
Some people are diversifying into other markets. I basically have a very barbel approach. I have very high conviction yielding assets here and I have more opportunistic yielding assets here and I rely less on the indices than I have in the past. How closely are you watching the Supreme Court decision that we're waiting on regarding tariffs?
The New York Fed bank came out today with a study that said 90 plus% of the tariffs are being paid by Americans, by US importers, US companies, and US Americans. The president keeps saying that it is the exporters from foreign countries who are paying this. No, it's not how tariffs work is what the New York Fed is saying.
What kind of upheaval or earthquake could it cause if the Supreme Court kind of agrees that President Trump did not follow the right reasoning for imposing these tariffs which he said were national security issue. So two things my own sense is the biggest burden of the tariffs is by the US importing companies.
No, think about it. Your costs have gone up as a company and are you going to pass on that higher cost to your consumers when you're not sure whether the tariffs are going to be in place or not? Most companies have held back waiting to see what what the Supreme Court is going to decide. So the major burden right now is not the consumer.
It is the US importing companies that are carrying the burden. As to what happens, I hear two things, Liz, and I don't know. I hear one view that even if the Supreme Court were to rules those tariffs illegal, the administration has another way to impose them. You and I talked uh before President Trump had announced his pick for chief of the Federal Reserve.
Kevin Walsh is now the pick. You respect him. You like him. Do you think he will cut interest rates when he takes over? I think his first meeting where he could would be June. and the market is looking at cuts soon after he comes in. I first of all, let me tell you, I think it's a great pick and you heard me say from the very beginning, you did
that among the five, this is the person I would pick because of his his expertise, his experience, because of his communication skills. I think what people are not focusing on that's really important is there's three elements to him. One is the rate cuts. Everybody's focused on that. The other one is the balance sheet.
And the third one are the reforms that he has already talked about in Washington last April that will make monetary policy more effective. And I'm pretty confident that he's going to be able to pursue pursuit reforms and gain the confidence of the FOMC which will make monetary policy more effective going forward.
Well, Muhammad, you're here on quite an interesting day. It's hard to say where the markets will end up today, whether they'll be lower than where they are now, which is down about, at least for the Dow, 397 points, but we're well off that 700 point stomach turnurning drop. Uh, we'll continue to watch every second of it tick by tick.
Thank you very much. Thanks for having me. Good to see you. All right, go ahead. Make fun of guys who wear Crocs with socks, but no one is dissing investors who bought Crocs stock in the last month. We are going to tell you why the maker of the popular foam clogs with Swiss cheese holes is rallying big time on this down day.
And President Trump rolling back sweeping climate change regulations that he says could save Americans more than a trillion dollars. We'll have the details in a live report when the claimment countdown comes right back. Stay with us.
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