저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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결론: 중앙은행 금리 인상 자체는 긴축이 아니므로 'Don't fight the Fed'는 신뢰하기 어려운 격언이다. 핵심 주장: 단기금리를 올리거나 내리는 것은 돈의 '가격'만 바꿀 뿐이며, 돈의 긴축·완화는 통화의 공급·가용성·창출에 관한 것이라 별개다. 근거 사례: 'Don't fight the Fed'는 1940년대 문헌에도 나오지만 1960년대 Wall Street Week 방송과 Martin Zweig의 발언으로 대중화되었다. 과거 데이터: 책 'Debunkery'(약 10년 전 집필)에서 이 격언의 적중률이 약 50:50임을 보였으며, 50:50은 무작위와 같다고 설명한다. 2022년 사례: 파월 의장이 5월에는 75bp 인상을 고려하지 않는다고 했으나 6월부터 연속 75bp 인상이 이어졌고, 이후 시장은 5월 수준을 회복했다. 격언 기준으로는 5~9월은 맞고 10~1월은 틀려 다시 50:50이다. 미국 대출 성장률은 2022년 초 4% 성장에서 연말 약 12% 성장으로 오히려 증가해, 실제로 긴축이 진행되지 않았다는 근거로 제시된다. 결론적 조언: 금리 인상 여부를 기준으로 시장에서 빠지거나 들어가는 방식은 부적절하며, 은행과 자본시장의 근본 작동 원리를 이해해야 한다. 종목·자산 방향 예측: 영상에서 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 발언은 없음. 리스크: 영상은 금리 정책 해석에 대한 교육적 내용이며 특정 투자 권유는 아님.
다듬은 글
simply central banks hiking rates short-term rates or lowering them does not in and of itself tighten or loosen money it just changes the price it doesn't have anything to do with tightening or loosening which is about the availability and the presence and the creation of money they're separate things because of everything that's gone on e22 and now to 2023 you hear a renewed Mantra crying don't fight the fed and that's easy to understand why I recall that saying which actually in literature does go back into the 19 uh 40s but not very commonly and not very widespread and not very accepted is growing hugely in popularity in the 1960s with the television show led by Louis root Kaiser Wall Street week and the regular appearances on it of Martin's wag who was a newsletter writer of some significance and also a money manager not of terribly great significance I don't want to get into criticizing Marty swag uh that's not my purpose here uh he's not been around for a long time but he was this big table pounder on don't fight the FED don't fight the FED don't fight the fed and the concept behind that is when fed hikes rates they're tightening when they're loosening rates they're loosening and uh therefore you should uh don't fight them if they're raising rates get on the sidelines if they're losing rates be in the market this is one of those things that like a lot of other broad pieces of long-term Market lure lore they lure you into doing things that don't really work all the time let me give you some examples of that in my book to bunkery I have a a long section I mean we're doing these regular debunkery things here I have a long section to monkery number 28.
on this topic and first I describe why doesn't work I'll come back to that I'm gonna work some of the time anything that's said like this has to work enough of the time that people keep saying it but it's pretty 50 50. uh and then back over in the next two pages I give you the actual data from when the book was written about 10 years ago a little over 10 years ago showing you that it is 50 50.
now 50 50 is a random phenomena it's not some thing that leads you to do well uh the reason it doesn't really work is and you know I have spoken about this so many times so many ways simply central banks hiking rates short-term rates or lowering them does not in and of itself tighten or loosen money it just changes the price of it it doesn't have anything to do with tightening or loosening which is about the availability and the presence and the creation of money they're separate things you see that last year from the FED doing what it's done which you know I'm not going to go back in detail over that because you do know that you were there and the fact that Lending started the year with in America four percent growth rates and ended the year with overall year over year for the year 12 growth rate boom does they raise rates you can't do that if they're really tightening money you follow that logic banked you can't keep lending at such robust levels if in fact they're tightening Central bank's tightening if it's really tight if they're really trading Tight money just high price loose money so then again here's a data that shows that in the past but I want you to think about current history because current history is good too the Fed wasn't really going in May I point out that journal Powell said as I've said many times before that Jerome Powell said we aren't even considering 75 basis point hikes then in June they Rose rates overnight lending rates by 75 basis points the next meeting 75 basis points the next meeting 75 basis points the next meeting 75 basis points you said that in May Market fell to October they're still raising rates where are we now in the market where we were in May you follow that now let's let me take you to that if don't fight the FED worked you should have gotten out of the market then I got back in fact it worked from May to June to July to August to September four months May to June July August September didn't work October November January February four months there you go back to 50 50.
that's my point I'm not suggesting you should do the reverse of fight the fed I'm not suggesting I think you need to not think of them raising rates short rates the way they do as necessarily tightening money or losing money you need to have a more fundamental concept of what actually is going on in banking and in capital market foreign
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