저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
Lehman 파산 무렵 Oaktree는 부실채권 펀드로 110억 달러를 모았고, 시장 공포 속에서 주 평균 4.5억 달러씩 15주간 투자했다. 시장 붕괴 가능성에 대한 확신은 없었으나 부채 가격이 크게 싸다고 판단해 투자했다. 위기 전 투자와 과거 성과로 신뢰를 쌓았고, 공포 속에서도 행동하는 것의 중요성을 강조했다.
다듬은 글
People are talking about the end of the world. In '07-'08, we raised 11 billion. When did Noah build the ark? Before the flood. I think in our last episode, we talked about the day Lehman went under. You know, September 15th, maybe of '08. And we had thought that there was going to be a mess. And we had raised it in the distressed debt world, the biggest fund in history prior to '07 was our '02 fund, which was 2 and 1/2 billion.
And in '07-'08, we raised 11 billion for a distressed debt fund because we thought that that there was a lot of distress coming. And we had it on the shelf. It wasn't It was for deployment when the stuff hit the fan. And Lehman goes under, which I think qualifies as saying the stuff has hit the fan.
But people are talking about the end of the world. And all the financial institutions are going to melt down, and everything having to do with money is going to atomize. So, we were faced with the question, do you invest the money? And there's no pattern recognition for the end of the world. And there's no, you know, in the in the pandemic, a Harvard epidemiologist said, when we make decisions, we have data, analogies to past experience, and supposition.
Well, at the time of the Lehman bankruptcy, we had no data and no prior experience. We only had supposition. So, this is an interesting question. Can AI have engaged in this kind of thinking? And what we said is that if the world if the financial world melts down and we invest, doesn't matter. But if we don't invest and the financial world doesn't melt down, then we didn't do our job.
So, we have to do it. And we invested on that basis. And Bruce, who runs those funds, invested an average of $450 million a week for 15 weeks, 7 billion in a quarter. On that Well, was it only on that? We also on quantitative measures, assuming the world doesn't melt down, we were getting great bargains.
We were buying the debt of companies where we would break even if companies that had been bought out by private equity guys two, three, four years earlier, if they ended up being worth a fifth or a fourth of what they had paid, we would still be okay. So, that was pretty easy. quantitatively. But we we were absolutely not confident.
You weren't confident? No. I thought you were going to say the the opposite of that. No, but I mean, we we're the kind of people who always say I could be wrong or it could work in a in a way that's never been seen before. And so, we all we always I wrote a memo three or four years ago called taking the temperature about the five major calls macro calls that I made in the last Well, in the last 26 years.
And they're all with some doubt. When the markets are crashing, why are they crashing? They're crashing because the news is terrible. I read the same newspapers. I watch the same shows on TV. I'm I'm I'm attached to the same news feeds. I see the terrible news. It looks terrible to me. I overcome it in some way and conclude, no, I should invest.
But I'm not immune to what everybody else is reading. If you do these things without any trepidation, you know, maybe there's something wrong with you. But, you know, people who look at the world probabilistically and admit to uh ignorance and uncertainty, can't act without trepidation. Hey, can you tell me about raising $11 billion?
Cuz you said that like very casually. Like, so we raised an $11 billion fund. And that's like if I just said, "Hey, I just turned water into wine." I think for for most people I'm just actually curious, how does that happen? Is that is that you go to people and you say, "Hey, we think the world's you make a really persuasive case." So, you're using a pitch deck.
Is this just prior relationships? Are you selling upside? Are you selling safety against downside and fear? Like, what what actually goes in to raising $11 billion like that? So, there's a list of things. Number one, certainly prior experience. Uh relationships. People have, you know, we started this business in 1988.
And uh so, we're talking about uh 20 years later. And in the 80 in the 20 years, we uh managed a lot of money and had very good results for a lot of people. And so, you can work on that reservoir of goodwill. Uh number two, uh that this strategy is particularly well suited for crisis. And we had managed money through a few crises, uh 1991 and '01-'02, and done exceptionally well.
So, we were able to convince people that number one, so many of your investments are set up for prosperity. This is a good way to hedge it by making an investment that will do particularly well if if the stuff hits the fan. But, we were also able to call attention to flaws in the environment. The things that gave rise to the global financial crisis, we could talk about and we could point out and you know, the fact that the market was not acting as a disciplinarian, which is its main job.
Main job is to is to you know, people come in and say, "I want money for this, this, and this." And the market's job is to say, "No, that doesn't make any sense. That's a stupid idea. We're not going to invest in that." That's the job and sometimes the market doesn't do that job. And when the market doesn't do that job, then dumb ideas get financed.
And they and when they turn out to be dumb, people lose money. So, I think we were able to convince people that some dumb things were happening. And then of course, there's a great respect for for Bruce Karsh for the investing he's done of over the years. I think those are the main reasons why we were able to do it.
And by the way, you hit the nail on the head. We did it in advance of the crisis. The best time to invest is in a crisis. You can't raise money during the crisis because the news is so terrible. So, you know, my wife and I have a favorite movie we watched called Spy Game with Robert Redford. And he says in the Redford says, "When did Noah build the ark?" Before the flood.
You got to build the ark before the flood. You have to have some sense that the that there may be a flood. But, one other point. In the in the prior 20 years there had been these occasions when we thought there was going to be a great investment opportunity. And it we were generally right because we took the temperature of the market accurately, and we raised a large fund, and we invested in it, and we made a lot of money.
But then, our next fund was smaller because we thought the opportunities weren't as good. Now, most people in the investment business, if they have a fund that does great, the next fund is bigger cuz they can sell on the back of those results. But we make it smaller because we think those results mean the things have appreciated and are not so attractive.
I I think that having done that for 20 years, I think we gained a lot of credibility and people tend I think people tend to say when Howard and Bruce say there's a great opportunity, they're not just trying to raise money, they really believe it, and they're and they tend to be right. And sometimes you have to speak against your own interest and admit your limitations and admit your uncertainties.
So, in 19 uh 98, we had the meltdown of Long-Term Capital Management, we had a Russian Ruble crisis, we had a uh panic uh in Southeast Asia. And uh especially with Long-Term going under, one of the skilled portfolio managers, young portfolio managers at Oaktree, came to me. He says, "I think this is it.
I think we're melting down. Uh it's all over." And I said, "Well, tell me your concerns." And he laid out his concerns. And I said, "Okay, I I understand it. Now go back to your desk and do your job." You know, a battle hero is not somebody who's unafraid. It's somebody who's afraid but does it anyway.
If you're running into a hell of bullets and you're not afraid, there's something wrong with you. But you do it anyway because it's what you have to do. And I don't want to elevate. I'm not saying we're analogous to a a a combat hero, but you have to do it despite your trepidation. And if By the way, if you wait until you have nothing to be afraid about, probably the opportunity has passed.
Comments 0