저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 금 가격은 사상 최고치를 경신했지만 금광주는 이를 따라가지 못하고 있어, 쉬프는 금 가격이 추가로 크게 오를 것으로 보고 실제 금광주도 이후 상승할 것이라고 전망한다. 금 시장 현황: 금 가격은 2,071달러로 마감해 종전 기록(약 2,080달러 부근)에 근접했으며, 11월 마지막 날 2,000달러 이상으로 월간 종가가 처음 2,000달러를 넘었다고 설명한다. 은(Silver) 전망: 은은 254달러 부근이며 사상 최고가를 회복하려면 약 두 배가 올라야 하므로 금 대비 매우 저평가됐다고 보고 은을 특히 좋은 매수 대상으로 추천한다. 금광주 괴리: 금광주는 금 상승률보다 낮게 움직였고, 52주 신고가에도 못 미쳐 신고가까지는 약 12% 더 올라야 한다. 투자자들이 금 가격 하락을 전제로 밸류에이션하고 있어 이른바 '벽을 오르는 강세장'이라고 설명한다. 전망 근거: 금이 인플레이션 조정 기준 사상 최고가에 한참 못 미치므로 현재 가격은 여전히 싸며, 최소 3,000달러 이상까지 갈 수 있다고 주장한다. 헤지펀드·대형 기금·연기금이 아직 시장에 없어 언젠가 참여할 것으로 본다. 경기 전망: 실업률 급등과 GDP 둔화로 경기가 약해지며 '경제적 각성'이 올 것이라고 예상하고, 이 과정에서 금과 금광주에 자금이 몰린다고 본다. GDP 분석: 발표된 연율 5.2% 성장의 대부분은 정부지출(기여 5.5%p)이며, 정부지출이 없었다면 GDP는 약 3% 감소했을 것이라고 주장한다. 차입으로 조달한 소비에 불과해 실질 생산성 향상이 없고 부채만 남는다고 비판한다. 리스크/조건: 투자자 심리가 여전히 약세이며 금광주 반등 시점은 불확실하다. 금은 가격 목표만 제시되고 구체적 기간은 명시되지 않았다. 마무리: 오늘 영상은 금시장의 이례적 역학, 은 매수 추천, 경기·재정 우려를 종합적으로 다뤘다.
다듬은 글
the Gold stock investors keep expecting gold prices to go down and so they're factoring that into the Gold stock price because when they're looking forward to try to figure out what stocks will be worth in the future what their earnings will be worth they're factoring in a lower gold price because nobody has confidence that the price of gold is going to rise that's what's so atypical about this rally because normally gold stocks lead the medal Financial commentator Peter Schiff discusses the significant rise in gold prices noting that the metal has reached an all-time record high he emphasizes that the current bull market in gold is atypical as gold stocks have not kept pace with the metal surge despite Gold's record-breaking performance shiff points out that gold stocks are still far from their all-time highs indicating widespread investor skepticism shiff expresses confidence in the continued upward trajectory of gold prices attributing the market hesitation to a prevailing bearish sentiment among investors he anticipates a potential economic Awakening as the economy weakens leading investors including hedge funds and Pension funds to recognize the value in gold and gold mining stocks additionally shiff critiques the recent GDP growth figures highlighting that the positive numbers were largely driven by government spending funded by borrowing rather than genuine economic growth he warns that this debt fueled consumption does not contribute to the nation long-term productivity with that let's dive into his thesis is it's the day that gold finally made a new all-time record high although today's record I believe will be broken many many times over I believe the old record high was around 20 2,080 and we got above that today in day I believe we closed at 2071 up $35 on the day you know by the way yesterday was the last day of November and gold closed above 2,000 on that day and that was the first time in history that the price of gold has closed any month above 2000 so it was a the highest close for a month and it was the first close above 2000 and we had a great first day of of uh J of December with a $35 rally silver also up not nearly as much up 16 cents at $254 as I said on my last podcast I think silver uh is a particularly good buy right here because gold is at a record high and silver would have to double to hit its record high so that tells me that gold at Silver rather is very cheap you know the gold mining stocks too they were up today but on a percentage basis they were actually up less than gold now normally that would not be the case on a big upate in Gold you would expect the gold mining stocks to be up even more because after all these are forward-looking investments that are going to be leveraged to the price of gold typically when you have a big move up in Gold you have an even bigger move move up in the gold mining stocks but this has not been a typical bull market clearly it is a bull market by definition gold is at an all-time record high so it can't not be in a bull market when you're at an all-time record high yet gold stocks are not even anywhere close to their all-time record highs in fact gold stocks would have to go up another 12% just to hit a 52- we High let alone a record high uh so this Market has been climbing a proverbial wall of worry because stock investors have been skeptical of this rally the whole time it's like the Rodney Dangerfield bull market it gets no respect it's because the Gold stock investors keep expecting gold prices to go down and so they're factoring that into the Gold stock price because when they're looking forward to try to figure out what stocks will be worth in the future what their earnings will be worth they're factoring at a lower gold price because nobody has confidence that the price of gold is going to rise that's what's so atypical about this rally because normally gold stocks lead the metal you go back to all the prior bull markets and that's how it is gold stocks move before the metal investors correctly anticipate that Gold's going to rally and they priced that into the stocks and then gold rallies but gold has rallied uh despite the fact that you haven't had any kind of confirmation from the mining stocks it's like instead of the mining stocks leading gold has been dragging the mining stocks and they've been reluctant to go along it's like they're pulling these mining stocks and you know they're they're they're barely moving and to me this just reinforces my bullishness that you have so bearishness on the part of investors now the question is when are investors going to wake up to the reality that gold prices are going much higher you know $2,000 gold even though this is a record high adjusted for inflation even the government's you know version of inflation the CPI which maybe captures half of the inflation that the government creates I'm not even sure where the price goal would have to be to hit a high adjusted for the CPI it's probably at least 3,000 I I could probably look it up I don't know what it is but we are going to get there but the fact that we're still so far below that inflation adjusted High lets you know how cheap gold remains despite the fact that it's above 2,000 so it could move up very quickly very fast and that is what I expect to happen the question is how high is gold going to have to go before the Bears throw in the towel and start buying these gold mining stocks because all these investors head funds uh big endowments Pension funds they're not invested they're they're not in this market at all at some point they're going to wake up to this reality and again I think it's going to be uh an economic Awakening because I think we're going to see the economy become much weaker in a way that is easily easy to discern when you're going to see a big pickup in unemployment and a big deceleration in the GDP you know we did get the GDP numbers by the way they came out on Wednesday and the markets were excited that it was 5.2% growth for the quarter remember they annualize the numbers so it's not like the economy grew by 5.2% in that quarter they just multiplied the quarterly number by four and they get 5.2% and everybody was excited about that but if you actually look at the components of GDP which is government spending personal spending uh of a business investment and then you plus or minus the trade the trade which in America's case is always a negative uh because we have a huge trade deficit we got those numbers again this week too when they were worse than expected but government spending accounted for 5.5% of the 5.2% increase but that means if you if government spending hadn't increased at all if government spending had just stayed the same the GDP would have gone down by3 so in other words but for government spending the economy contracted now where did the government get the money that it spent it borrowed it so the only reason we had positive GDP was because the government borrowed a bunch of money and spent it that is not economic growth the country is not better off because we went deeper into debt to spend money on consumption because that's what the people who got the money from the government did with it they spent it right the government didn't build any factories the government didn't take that money and increase the productive capacity of the nation the money just got spent but now the money has been spent and All That Remains is the debt let's recap today's video Peter Schiff highlighted a historic moment in the gold market reaching an all-time high shift's insights on the unusual dynamics of this bull market where gold stocks lag offer a unique perspective on investor sentiment as gold defies expectations shiff poses the question of when Skeptics will recognize the potential for higher prices the analysis includes silver and gold mining stocks with shiff recommending silver as a strategic buy and noting the disconnect between Gold's highs and Mining stock underperformance an anticipated economic Awakening driven by potential economic weaknesses adds depth to the discussion in economic indicators shiff evaluates recent GDP numbers emphasizing government spending and concerns about growing national debt if you found today's insights valuable don't forget to subscribe like and share your opinions in the comments
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