저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 미국은 이미 경기침체 진입 상태이며, 침체는 이제 시작일 뿐이라는 주장. 경기침체 정의 논쟁: GDP 2분기 연속 마이너스가 기술적 침체 정의인데, 바이든 행정부가 이를 부인하며 정의를 바꿨다고 비판. 행정부 입장 변화: 브라이언 디즈(2022.3), 세실리아 로즈(2022.5) 등은 과거 2분기 연속 마이너스를 침체로 봤으나, 2분기 GDP 발표 직후 입장을 뒤집었다고 주장. 연준 독립성: 파월 의장도 2분기 연속 마이너스는 침체가 아니라고 말해 행정부 압박에 굴복했다고 비판. 향후 전망: 3분기 GDP는 1·2분기보다 더 약할 것이며, 2분기 수치도 하향 수정될 수 있다고 전망. 침체는 이제 시작 단계라고 주장. 고용 지표 비판: 실업률은 후행지표라 침체가 진행되며 상승할 것이고, 낮은 실업률을 근거로 침체가 아니라는 주장은 틀렸다고 봄. 실질임금 및 노동시장: 물가 9.1% 대비 임금 상승률이 낮아 실질임금이 급락했으며, 이는 강한 노동시장이 아니라 노동자 협상력이 약한 증거라고 주장. 투자 대상 종목·지수 언급: 영상 본문에서 개별 종목, 지수, 금, 비트코인 등에 대한 가격 방향 발언은 확인되지 않음. 경기침체 지속에 대한 거시 전망만 언급됨. 과거 예측 회고: 2021년에 인플레이션은 일시적이 아니며 악화되고, 2022년 상반기 경기침체 및 스태그플레이션이 올 것이라 예측했다고 회상. 출연자 전망 요약: 경기침체는 장기화되고 GDP는 수년간 위축될 것이라는 비관적 시각.
다듬은 글
yeah well first of all it's not just 20 or 30 years i mean it's kind of always been described as two consecutive quarters of negative gdp and we didn't hear differently until about i don't know like less than a week before they released the official numbers for the second quarter and obviously the biden administration was leaked that gdp report they knew in advance that it was going to be negative and it wasn't until then that they came out with this ridiculous explanation or excuse that two negative quarters of gdp do not constitute a recession because prior to that knowledge you know they were pretending we had a strong economy they kept talking about how strong the economy was well it's been in recession the entire year absolutely and so now with the official numbers coming out second quarter uh gross domestic product fell 0.9 though it was expected to rise 0.3 percent um we get a very different sounding message now i just you know want the audience to understand the the administration made perfectly clear just like peter did and like everybody did what would mean were in in a recession and that is two consecutive periods two consecutive quarters of negative growth they've been saying that along even the bite administration officials have been saying that it wasn't until it actually happened to him that they and their media allies completely changed did a 180 and started to say it's a very different story okay so here's the first sound bite soundbite one you can hear the media and uh bite administration officials trying to tell us black is not black white is white not white um this is okay so this is actually all by mad men uh officials so take a listen to them i mean if the technical definition is two quarters of contraction you're saying that's not a recession that's not the technical definition two negative quarters of gdp growth is not uh the technical definition of recession you know the idea that uh two quarters of negative gdp growth is a technical definition of a recession is wrong how is that not redefining recession because that's not the definition what we're seeing is that we are in a transition we've entered a new phase in our recovery virtually nothing signals that uh this period in the second quarter is recessionary that doesn't sound like a recession to me okay so the rules have changed for no particular reason other than they're just looking at other standards they're looking at other pieces of the economy that they say are doing well like low unemployment and saying that changes the rules entirely yeah you you you know i guess they they believe if you if you repeat a lie often enough people will believe it but imagine megan if donald trump tried to do the same thing what if trump were president and we had two quarters of negative gdp growth and then donald trump tried to redefine recession to claim that we were not in one do you think the media would go along with that correct no never and the media is going along with it because that those are the by administration officials i mean including janet yellen right like it's not the technical definition to say that uh two quarters of contraction is a recession it is the technical definition that's the definition and you know even fed chair powell they got to him they were able to intimidate him so anybody who thinks the fed is independent now you have chair powell claiming that two negative quarters is not a recession and we're not in a recession but you know megan two negative quarters is just a minimum for a recession we're gonna get a third negative quarter we're gonna get a fourth negative quarter we're gonna be seeing contracting gdp for years this recession is just getting started and the increase in unemployment is coming people that are pointing to the low unemployment rate and saying this means we're not in recession that's nonsense unemployment is a lagging indicator the unemployment rate is going to rise as the recession continues but also megan they're trying to claim that we're not in a recession because we have a strong labor market we don't we have a very weak labor market real wages are collapsing wages have never really fallen this much in real terms in history that is a weak labor market when you have a strong labor market workers can demand raises they have power they can go to their bosses and say i want more money or i'm going to quit and take another job that's not happening workers are being forced to work for pay cuts in fact a lot of workers are taking second jobs and third jobs because they can't make ends meet on their main job that is a weak labor market so you're saying when you when inflation's at 9.1 percent and you're only getting a five percent raise what you've really had is a four percent pay cut and that's not a strong labor market correct i mean let's say we had inflation and a strong labor market which is what they're pretending if inflation was nine percent workers would be getting 12 percent pay raises they would be ahead of inflation the fact that they're accepting raises that are much smaller than inflation shows that this is a weak labor market workers have no power they are forced to accept lower wages because the labor market is so weak the before we get into that because i do want to ask you a little bit more about the wages on the administration contradictions i just want to point this out all right first there is biden's national economic council director brian deese in march of 2008 um i think he was working for the buying administration he said economists have a technical definition of recession two consecutive quarters of negative growth now news with biden two negative quarters of gdp growth is not the technical definition of recession so which is it i mean it's a 100 180 uh reversal by him his biden's chair of the white house council of economic advisers uh cecilia rose in may of 2022 two quarters of negative growth is an indicator of recession now uh as of july 21st in a white house blog post what is a recession some say it's two consecutive quarters of falling real gdp and she goes on to say that's neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle she just said in may two quarters of negative growth is an indicator of recession then you got jared merkstein he's the economic advisor wait i got two more i got two more september of 19 he says the recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of declining growth now that idea is quote wrong and then you got heather bosey his economic advisor may 2019 a recession refers to two quarters of negative growth in gdp now that does not necessarily indicate we're in a recession okay peter i can't well look i i i'm 59 years old all right and i have never in my life heard a recession defined any other way other than two negative quarters of gdp that's the definition because recession refers to whether or not the gdp is expanding or contracting it doesn't refer to the level of unemployment or the level of inflation it specifically is there to reference what is happening with gdp right that's how they define economic growth i mean i have a lot of problems with gdp but that's how recession has been defined recovery is when the gdp is expanding recession is what it's contracting that's it and if you've got two negative quarters in a row you're in a recession now maybe it's a shallow recession maybe it's going to be over quickly now i don't think so i think we're just early in this recession i think the third quarter is going to be even weaker than the first two in fact i think they're going to revise the second quarter number even lower and i was not surprised by that negative number i expected it and in fact last year i expected the first quarter to be negative i was forecasting that the us economy would be in recession in the first half of 2022 back in 2021 and by the way back in 2021 i was also forecasting that inflation was not transitory and that it would get worse i said inflation would strengthen and the economy would weaken we would have stagflation and that is exactly
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