저자: 미상 · 외국인
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레이 달리오의 2023년 경기 침체 및 장기 금융 긴축 경고를 소개하는 영상으로, 달리오의 과거 예측 적중 이력과 함께 금리 인상이 경기 둔화와 자산시장 하락을 부른다는 전망을 정리한다. 결론: 달리오는 2023년 경기 침체가 임박했으며 주식시장은 추가 하락 여지가 있다고 본다. 연준 긴축 배경: 연준이 연 3번 75bp 금리 인상을 단행했고, 인플레이션이 여전히 높아 금리 인상이 계속될 가능성이 크다는 입장이다. 경기 침체 신호: 주택 및 자동차 등 금리 민감 업종의 위축과 현금잔고 감소, 신용 연체율 상승을 침체의 조기 경고 신호로 제시한다. 시장 전망: S&P500은 금리 인상 발표 후 1.7% 하락해 2개월 저점을 기록했고, 채권시장이 특히 크게 타격받을 것이라고 본다. 정부 부채 리스크: 저금리 시기 쌓인 정부 부채가 금리 상승으로 이자 부담을 키워 재정 위기로 번질 수 있다고 경고한다. 영국 사례: 영국 시장 붕괴를 '탄광의 카나리아'로 규정하며, 다른 나라도 고금리와 부채 재정 지출로 인플레이션을 잡으려 할 것이라고 예상한다. 경고 확산 경로: 안전자산 국채 금리 상승이 위험자산 수요를 빨아들이고, 이는 기업과 가계의 유동성 부족으로 이어져 금융시장을 끌어내릴 수 있다고 본다. 경기 악화 기간: 높은 금리, 기록적 인플레이션, 러시아의 우크라이나 침공에 따른 에너지 충격으로 2023~2024년에 상황이 더 나빠질 것이라 전망하며, 이것이 선거에도 영향을 줄 수 있다고 언급한다. 투자자 대응 1: 인플레이션 조정 기준으로 재무 위험을 측정하고, 현금성 자산이 인플레이션에 잠식되는 점을 고려하며, 비상금은 안전하고 분산된 포트폴리오에서 마련하라고 권한다. 투자자 대응 2: 실직 시 버틸 수 있는 기간을 점검하고, 현금을 안전자산으로 보지 말며, 인플레이션 연동채·금 등 실물자산과 가상자산 등을 포함한 최대한 분산된 포트폴리오를 구성하라고 조언한다. 달리오 본인도 소량의 비트코인을 보유한다고 언급된다. 결론적으로 영상은 달리오가 침체 가능성을 강하게 경고했다는 점과 투자자가 위험을 점검하고 분산해야 한다는 점을 강조한다.
다듬은 글
first read audio foresaw the 2008 financial crisis then he predicted years of long-term Financial strain on the U.S economy from the Kobe pandemic and now the 73 year old billionaire investor has warned of a new economic catastrophe on the horizon which is worse than the coming recession the guardian said that his predictions aren't facts and he's been wrong before his future catastrophes are inevitable according to historical patterns over the last 500 years what did the legendary investor Ray dalio say that is worse than a recession in this video we'll be talking about it we can also tell you two amazing tips that Dario gave to combat the problem but before I start make sure to like the video and subscribe to my channel for amazing upcoming content the legendary investor said the stock market has further to fall before a recession hits and with the FED making its third 75 basis point height last year greater economic contraction is on the horizon after the previous year the FED has steadfast to its goal of a soft blending for inflation is the idea of vanquishing inflation without a dramatic economic downturn but despite several interest rate hikes inflation is still there and Business Leaders are saying that it's not a matter of if a recession will happen but when last year after another ray hike and a promise from fed chairman Jerome Powell to stay the course until inflation comes down darlio said that the Federal Reserve will probably keep tightening to monetary policy until high prices come down no matter the consequences and as a result a recession is lightly within 2023 the classic early signs of contraction in the housing and auto sectors which are the first to be impacted by the fed's higher interest rates in June 2022 he argued on LinkedIn that soft Landing was up the fed's reach even as Bridgewater beat the bear Market in the first half of the Year delivering a 32 return to investors as other firms struggled Dario's comments followed the first decision to Institute its third consecutive 75 basis point rate hike last year before June the last time the bank had made such a big rate hike was in 1994.
dolio said the hikes have already slowed down economic growth significantly in the U.S after the fed's rate hike the S P 500 fell 1.7 to a two-month low Dalia said that the stock market will sink further as the FED continues its hikes adding that the bond market will be hit particularly hard meanwhile Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank will stop at nothing until inflation is under control even if it means some pain to households and businesses Dalia said that the pain will be sorely felt over the next few years and the FED always has a trade-off between economic strength and inflation with inflation now the bank's Target it will chart a course until economic pain is considered more severe than inflation he also outlined how cash strapped governments loaned up on debt while money was cheap and plentiful but now Rising rates are increasing their borrowing costs and threatening to prune them into fiscal crisis further saying that now an interest rate that is high enough to deal with inflation and also high enough to provide an adequate return for the bond investors it's too high of an interest rate for the debtor Bridgewater found to describe Britain's recent Market meltdown as a canary in the coal mine saying that he expects other countries to try fighting inflation with higher rates while also Shoring up growth through debt-funded spending yet the UK's experience shows that the approach to Spook investors despite liquidity and leverage issues and prompt emergency interventions from central banks dalio also skimmed on how a U.S recession could materialize he predicted higher yields on super safe government bonds would suck demand for riskier assets such as joint bonds and tied to financial conditions would lead consumers companies and other entities short of cash within the next few years the flight tab assets coupled with the liquidity crunch would likely drag down financial markets and weaken Economic Development the Express at the dominoes are falling in a very classic way and said that he sees the classic early warning signs of recession and expects the economic picture get worse over the coming years the Bridgewater Associates founder said that given Rising interest rates meant to team record high inflation and other factors like Russia's invasion of Ukraine rattled energy markets the U.S economy has more room for further pain Dalia thinks that it's going to get worse in 2023 and 2024 which has implications for elections he also said that we are very close to zero percent growth right now and pointed out some key red flags like drawdowns in cash balances that had been built up earlier contraction of both the housing and Automotive sectors and the rising credit delinquency rates the central bank has remained consistent in its messaging that fed prioritizes reigning in inflation backed out towards its two percent Target over economic growth dalio said the FED has a trade-off between supporting the economy and controlling inflation he said that they would tighten monetary policy and take away credit until the economic pain is greater than inflation pain so here I read earlier's top two tips to combat the problem financially prepare for it number one assess your financial risks regardless of what happens a simple principle for approaching future events is that if you worry you don't have to worry and if you don't worry then you have to worry you said worrying prompts you to take a close look at your own personal risks and encourages you to take action on them also he advised to measure Financial risks and inflation-adjusted terms instead of today's dollars for example if you have cash in Saving accounts it's probably accruing value at a different rate than your other Investments since it's being taxed by inflation but that doesn't mean you should solely choose other Investments over a savings account and make chaotic times you need your emergency savings to be funded by a safe well-diversified portfolio number two save and diversify your portfolio's first step to the strong portfolio is assessing your current investment strategy to figure out how many weeks you could financially survive if you lost your job and then make sure your money isn't all in one place according to Dalia cash is not a safe investment instead He suggests building as diverse a portfolio as possible ranging from inflation index bonds to physical assets like gold your portfolio could either include digital Investments like cryptocurrencies Dahlia personally owns a small amount of Bitcoin despite years of criticizing crypto saying it's a hedge bear made solely for the purpose of diversification so that's all for today guys what do you think about darlia's warning and approach let me know in the comments make sure you give this video a thumbs up and subscribe to my channel so you don't miss out on fantastic Financial content until next time
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