저자: CharlieMunger/영상진행자HamishHodder · 외국인
요약 보기
찰리 멍거 인터뷰를 소개하는 가치투자 해설 영상으로, 2020년 말 시점에서 향후 10년 주식 수익률이 과거 10년보다 낮을 것이라는 견해와 과도한 통화 증발·재정적자의 위험을 강조한다. [시장 환경 전망] 멍거는 대규모 양적완화, 재정 부양, 제로금리가 이 정도 기간 지속된 전례가 없어 미지의 영역이며 '불장난의 가장자리'에 있다고 경고했다. 과거 과도한 통화 증발과 저금리 이후에는 인플레이션과 기업·개인·정부 부채 문제가 따라왔다고 설명한다. 인플레이션 시 중앙은행이 금리를 올리면 부채 이자 부담이 커져 전 업종 주가에 영향을 준다고 본다. [산업 변화와 투자 원칙] 멍거는 소매 산업이 백화점·신문 등 전통 모델에서 이커머스로 크게 바뀌었다고 설명했다. 변화는 신규 사업자에게 기회이지만 기존 모델 투자자에게는 손실이 된다고 강조했다. 변화를 쫓는 투자(아마존 초기 등)는 맞추면 큰 수익이지만 대다수는 틀린다고 평가했다. 버크셔는 대부분의 수익을 철도(BNSF)처럼 변화를 피하고 강한 경쟁우위(통행료 모델)를 가진 산업에서 얻었다고 설명했다. [인내와 공격성의 균형] 좋은 투자 기회는 드물어 인내가 필요하며, 기회가 오면 과감히 투자할 공격성도 필요하다고 강조했다. 능력 범위(circle of competence)와 저평가 기회가 겹치는 영역은 매우 좁다고 설명했다. 너무 빨리 과도하게 투자하는 실패와 좋은 기회에 너무 적게 투자해 현금이 인플레이션에 잠식되는 실패, 두 가지 모두 위험하다고 경고했다.
다듬은 글
and we're in very uncharted waters nobody has gotten by with the kind of money printing we're doing now for a very extended period without some trouble we're very near the edge of playing with fire hey everyone and welcome back so charlie munger did an interview for the first time in a very long time he did a zoom interview and in it he talked about a bunch of different things including some general principles that are very valuable for investors like us to understand as well as his opinion on the current state of the markets what is happening with the pandemic and where he sees the markets going over the next few years so today i'm going to be sharing some clips from that interview as well as talking about some of the things that i thought were most valuable for me to hear and share that with you as well as share my personal opinion on some of the things that he is speaking about as someone who follows warren buffett and charlie munger's value investing principles also you may notice that over the last couple of videos my camera angle and lighting has changed a couple of different times at the moment i'm just testing out different things so if this looks terrible then that's why hopefully you can bear with it through this video but let me know if you think it's an improvement from the previous setup even though it was pretty much exactly the same i just changed the camera and lighting just a little bit but i'm always happy to hear your feedback down in the comments section but with that said let's jump into the video so the first thing that caught my eye or caught my attention when watching this interview was when charlie munger began talking about the impact of change in an industry or in a market and what that does to investors and he specifically spoke about the retail landscape and how and used that as an example to demonstrate how change in a certain industry is good for some investors and bad for others all the things that were really great when i were young have receded enormously and new things have come up and some of them started to die that is what the long term investment climate is and it does make it very interesting look at what's died all the department stores all the newspapers he spoke about how retail had changed dramatically even just over the past 100 years from independent brick and mortar retailers to then having brick and mortar department stores which were basically operating that same brick and mortar model but at scale in order to reduce costs and now what we're seeing which is a shift to globalism and e-commerce born out of the internet and while operating at scale will almost always provide some kind of cost advantages for those bigger businesses at the moment with the birth of e-commerce and the internet individual brand owners or individual retailers can actually operate very very efficiently even at a small scale with the ability to source products directly from places like china and other parts of asia and ship them directly either to local warehouses or even directly to their customers so essentially what has happened over the past 100 years is that the business model of retail has slowly become more and more efficient and while that is fantastic for consumers who now get access to a wider array of products at lower costs in most circumstances it's generally been a bad thing for businesses businesses operating old models that are no longer viable but even businesses running under the new model are far less profitable than they could have been previously and changes like this in retail but also in any other industry will be bad for some investors and in the retail example it's bad for investors in old business models like department stores that run these huge brick and mortar locations and have huge rents and operating expenses and it's going to be good for new investors who are in businesses that are capitalizing on the change such as in this circumstance amazon.com so i think it's important here to understand what you can do as an investor to protect yourself against change and charlie munger spoke to this specifically well some people try to get on the cutting edge of change so they're destroying other people instead of being destroyed themselves and those are the googles and the apples and so forth other people like me do some of that joining things like apple in some ways we just try to avoid big change that we think is likely to hurt us manga talks about how some investors like to invest on the edge of innovation trying to find the businesses like the amazons in the early 2000s that are going to benefit from a significant shift in the industry and people who invest in that way of course some of them will pick correctly the business that then goes on to dominate and a substantial amount of investors will be incorrect and therefore still negatively impacted by the shift in that particular industry manga goes on to talk about how although they have through berkshire hathaway made some investments on the cutting edge such as in apple most of his money that he's made throughout his lifetime and most of the benefit that berkshire hathaway has seen has come from investing in industries that do not go through significant changes berkshire for instance owns the burlington northern railroad you can hardly think of a more old-fashioned business than a railroad business but who in hell is ever going to create another trunk railroad so it's a very good asset for us so and we've made that success not by conquering change but by avoiding it in this segment he talks about berkshire hathaway's railroad investment in burlington northern and how there has been a lot of innovation in the industry but at the same time no one is going to build a railroad that follows the exact same route as theirs so while it seems like a boring slow growth industry it's also protected by a powerful competitive advantage in this case the advantage or the economic mode as warren buffett would refer to it as that this railroad benefits from is a toll mode which basically means that if consumers well in this circumstance if businesses want to transport cargo from point a to point b i think the example he gives is los angeles to chicago they have to use that railroad which is owned by that specific company there is no alternative for transporting cargo through that route on railroad so i think the overarching lesson here is that as an investor if you want to protect your wealth over time from change then you need to invest in businesses that have sustainable competitive advantages and that will usually be in the form of something that won't be impacted by significant change in the industry he then goes on to talk about the current state of the markets and the person interviewing him asks him whether he thinks the returns in the stock market will be better or worse than the past decade and he states that he thinks real returns over the next decade will be worse than what we've seen over the past decade what do you think of the combinations of quantitative easing and large fiscal deficit and where are they going to lead us well there i've got a very simple answer and that is it's one of the most interesting questions anybody could ask and we're in very uncharted waters we have nobody has gotten by with the kind of money printing we're doing now for a very extended period without some trouble and i i think we're we're very near the edge of playing with fire you expect the next 10 years to have lower returns in the equity markets than the last 10 the answer is yes he thinks this will be the case because we are in a period of time where many people have seen the great returns over the past decade and as a result have flocked to the world of finance the interest in finance and investing has fluctuated over time and basically it decreases when investment returns are poor and increases when people are making a lot of money he then goes on to talk about how what we will see over the next few years in the next decade is very much uncharted waters because the current market conditions are something that we really haven't seen before the current level of quantitative easing physical stimulus and zero percent interest rates are something that have never lasted very long every time there has been significant levels of money printing low interest rates and as a result high personal business and government debt there has been trouble and historically that trouble has come in the form of inflation and if there is high inflation then central banks like the federal reserve in the us may be forced to raise interest rates in order to restrict that inflation and if they do that then the interest rates on debts that businesses and individuals and even the government are having to pay will go up that means people paying more for their mortgages and businesses paying substantially more in interest payments for the for the debt that they've taken on over the past few years and businesses and individuals who over-extended themselves with debt will get significantly hurt by that process and the impact of that will be felt across all sectors of the stock market and while what i just described to you has happened many times in the past before charlie munger sees this as uncharted waters because it has never happened for such a long period of time where we've had large quantitative easing large physical stimulus zero percent interest rates and still pretty much zero percent uh inflation or one percent inflation having all of those factors together for a really long period of time like we've seen is something that we've never seen before the third and final thing that i took out of this interview that i think is extremely valuable for you to understand as an investor is that charlie manga describes value investing in long-term investing and the how people are successful in the markets as balancing patients and aggression finding the ideal balance between patience and aggression good investing requires a weird combination of patience and aggression and not many people have it it also has to it requires a big amount of self-awareness and how much you know and how much you don't know you have to know the edge of your own competency and a lot of brilliant people are no good at knowing the edge of their own competency they think they're way smarter than they are and of course that that's dangerous and causes trouble patience is extremely important when investing in the stock market because really really good investment opportunities don't come around very often right so every single year there are stocks there are businesses that have stock prices that fall for a short-term reason that does not impact their business long term and that means that every single year there are opportunities to invest but as an individual investor the cross-section between the businesses you understand and the businesses going through some kind of short-term problem that gives us an opportunity to buy a business and make a good investment the cross-section of those two things is very very narrow even for the greatest investors you can think of it kind of like a venn diagram where one circle is your circle of competence so the businesses you deeply understand businesses that you're actually capable of analyzing and the other circle is businesses that are on sale businesses that are an attractive investment and while as i said there will be every single year businesses that become attractive investments you need to be able to understand them in order to identify them as opportunities and you have to have the patience to wait for the very few opportunities that will come across your plate throughout your lifetime but you can't just have patience you need to balance it with aggression because when those opportunities do come along you need to have the confidence to go significantly into them you need to be able to invest significant amounts of money into those investments because otherwise you will miss out on those opportunities and you will always find yourself as a value investor sitting in too much cash the way that i see it is value investors can fail in two distinct ways one is they invest too heavily into a business they don't understand and that turns out to be a bad investment but you can also equally fail by not investing enough in good opportunities when they come along and ending up too much in cash that is losing value to inflation over time personally i've experienced both of these two extremes at one time i have invested too much money too quickly into a business that i thought was great and still is great to this day but was not at an appropriate price and there's also been times where i've invested in a company that i know is great and that i thought was at a good price but i didn't put a significant amount of money behind it which meant that i've been left with a little bit more cash than i would like to have been in and balancing patience and aggression i think is probably one of the steepest learning curves that you will face as an investor and you're bound to make mistakes along the way but as long as you're constantly improving learning more about the businesses and industries you understand and investing when you see opportunities having the confidence to go after those investments then over time you will learn how to better balance those two things so i hope you guys enjoyed today's video and got some value out of it and if you did i woul the video and let me know your thoughts down in the comment section below i'll be answering questions as this video goes live of course hit subscribe if you want to see more content like this uh there's been a little bit of lack of videos towards the end of this year as i'm kind of winding things down and spending some more time with friends and family but of course starting 2021 in january we will be back to the regular schedule where a lot of videos will be coming your way about great investors and about value investing principles and all of the other things in the investing and finance world so you've got plenty to look forward to starting next year hope everyone has a great break over christmas and new year's and other than that
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