저자: 제레미그랜섬 · 한국인
요약 보기
그랜섬은 S&P500이 30% 이상, 최대 50% 이상 폭락할 수 있으며 내년 경기침체와 미국 주택가격 급락이 확실하다고 경고한다. 주가 전망: S&P500이 3,000 아래로 내려가는 것을 합리적으로 보며, 3,000 도달 가능성이 높다고 암시한다. 2,000까지 가는 것도 놀랍지 않지만 그러려면 '두 개의 바퀴'가 떨어져야 한다고 설명한다. 현 수준에서 거의 1/3가량 하락해야 3,000에 닿는다는 취지다. 시장 과열: 월가 전문가들도 주식이 과대평가됐다고 보며, 역사적으로 주식이 30년물 국채보다 5% 높은 수익을 기록해 약세 전망이 나온다고 말한다. 올해 S&P500 상승은 애플·테슬라·엔비디아 등 빅테크가 주도했다. 거시경제: 팬데믹 저축은 소진됐고 학자금 상환 유예도 끝났으며 주요 경제지표는 악화되고 있다. 기업 신용은 강화되는 반면 미국 정부는 사상 최대 부채에 따른 부담스러운 이자를 내야 하는 단계에 도달했다. 경기침체는 늦어도 내년 초에 시작되며 얕을지 깊을지는 모르지만 내년에 깊어질 것이라고 본다. 주택: 40년 만의 최저금리로 주택가격이 올랐으나, 정부가 금리를 0%에서 5%로 올리며 미국 금리가 20년 만의 고점인 7%를 넘어서 높은 모기지 금리가 주택가격을 끌어내릴 것으로 본다. 비트코인: 매우 정교한 사기(scam)라고 혹평한다. 출연자 전망: 그랜섬 본인은 장기 가치투자 관점에서 약세를 주장하며, 시장이 '좋은' 약세장(50% 미만 하락) 이후 정상 수익률을 보이는 국면을 봐야 한다고 말한다. 다만 고점 대비 50%가 크게 줄어들지는 않을 것이라고 본다.
다듬은 글
Jeremy Gramm has come forward warning that there is a possibility the SMP 500 index could plummet by 30%. According to breaking news that just came out, he even mentioned the possibility of a drop of over 50%. He also warned that an economic recession will definitely come next year and that U.S. housing prices will crash.
Furthermore, much to the displeasure of cryptocurrency investors, he dismissed Bitcoin as a scam. Appearing on a Bloomberg podcast, Jeremy Gramm stated regarding the benchmark stock index that he considers it reasonable if it falls below 3,000. He explained that to reach the SMP 3,000 point, it would need to drop by nearly 1 from its current level.
Gramm said he would n't be surprised even if the SMP went down to 2,000, but added that for that to happen, two wheels would have to fall off. He noted that while wheels tend to fall off as large bubbles burst, that does n't mean it must necessarily happen. However, he suggested that the likelihood of it failing to reach close to 3,000 points is low; in other words, he implied that there is a high probability it will reach that mark.
Jeremy Gramm is also the co-founder of the asset management firm GMO. As you know, he is the so-called "historian of bubbles," famous for making dramatic predictions. He is someone I also admire, and his insight is genius. He has long discussed the dot-com bubble and the financial crisis, and since last year, he has been consistently saying that a massive super bubble in the housing, stock, and commodity sectors is about to burst.
Even without Graham's talk, Wall Street experts believe that stocks are excessively overvalued and inflated. They are discussing a bearish outlook for stocks because they have historically recorded returns 5% higher than 30-year Treasury bonds. According to Graham, a significant portion of this year's S-500 rally, including Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia, was driven by these big tech stocks.
He argues that we should look toward a market that shows normal returns after experiencing a "good" bear market. He suggests that while a "good" bear market would be a drop of less than 50%, in reality, it will not shrink significantly by 50% from its peak. Furthermore, Graham states that the U.S. economy will contract soon, as consumers have effectively used up all their pandemic savings, the deadline for student loan repayments has ended, and key economic indicators continue to worsen.
He stated that corporate credit is strengthening and that the U.S. government has reached the threshold where it must now pay burdensome interest on its record-high debt. Furthermore, he predicted that a recession would begin soon, no later than early next year, adding that while he does not know whether it will be mild or severe, one thing is certain: it will go deep next year.
Known as a prominent value investor, he noted that mortgage costs have fallen and housing prices have risen in many countries due to interest rates at their lowest levels in over 40 years. He pointed out that the government raised interest rates from zero to 5% last year to combat historical inflation, causing U.S.
rates to surpass 7%, a 20-year high. Consequently, he predicted that steep mortgage rates would drive down housing prices. Additionally, regarding his harsh criticism of cryptocurrency over the past few years, he stated that Bitcoin is a very sophisticated scam.
Comments 0