저자: JeremyGrantham/채널진행자미주놀 · 한국인
요약 보기
결론: 그랜섬은 테슬라 과소평가를 인정하며 장기적으로 긍정적이나, 시장 전체는 거대 버블 붕괴를 경고한다. 테슬라 관련: 2019년 그랜섬은 테슬라를 고평가라 보고 이익 없이 파산할 것이라 주장했으나 이후 주가가 약 10배 오르자 자신의 판단이 틀렸다고 인정했다. 그는 머스크와 경영진을 기적을 만든 경영진으로 극찬하고, 테슬라를 폭스바겐·GM 같은 자동차 회사와 비교한 것이 가장 큰 실수였다고 말했다. 애덤 조나스 등 과거 테슬라에 부정적이던 분석가들이 입장을 바꾸고 있다는 점이 언급됐다. 단기 주가 변동과 하락장은 있을 수 있으나 향후 몇 년간 가치에 대해서는 긍정적 평가가 나왔다. 시장 버블 경고: 그랜섬은 올해 초부터 거대한 슈퍼 버블이 곧 터지며 현 버블이 대공황급 규모라고 주장해 왔다. AI가 붕괴를 막지 못하며, AI 열풍이 지수를 몇 분기 더 밀어올릴 수 있으나 결국 붕괴를 막을 수 없다고 봤다. 버블의 원인: 연준의 과도한 부양 정책이 주원인으로 지목됐고, 2015년부터 버블 신호가 보였다는 경고가 있었다. 닷컴 버블과 비교되며 현재는 4번째 슈퍼 버블로 진단됐다. 뉴스 보도(두 달 전): 나스닥은 상반기에 32% 상승해 40년 만에 최대 상승폭을 기록했고, S&P500과 나스닥은 6월에 6% 이상 올라 4개월 연속 상승했다. 시장의 핵심 변수는 연준 금리 결정과 주요 기업 2분기 실적이다. 리스크: 버블 붕괴 시점과 규모를 정확히 특정하지 않았으며, 테슬라 주가는 단기 변동성이 크다. 출연자 전망: 그랜섬은 테슬라 장기 가치에 긍정적이나, 전체 시장에는 붕괴 경고(중기 하락 우려).
다듬은 글
There are three legends I personally admire: Peter Lynch, Stanley Lerr, and Jeremy Grantham, whom I will introduce today. I will set Peter Lynch aside since he has retired. As for Roger Miller, he is a genius among geniuses, so I hold him in immense respect as someone I truly cannot approach. Jeremy Grantham is known in Korea as the "Bubble Detector." Despite his advanced age, he remains highly active; he became a sensation for accurately predicting the Japanese asset market laws in 1980, the dot-com bubble of the 2000s, and the global financial crisis of 2008.
Recently, starting from the beginning of this year, he has been consistently stating that a massive super bubble is about to burst and that the current bubble is on the scale of the Great Depression. He continues to argue that while AI might cause a slight delay, AI will not be able to prevent the collapse of this enormous bubble.
Jeremy Grantham was even reported on Korean news two months ago, and there is talk that something tremendous is coming to the market. Now, regarding this story, the Korean news reports... I will include a brief explanation at the end of this video. I want to point out that, looking at the broader trend, Mizuno's stance aligns with his.
Now, the introduction to this 3-hour video was a bit long, wasn't it? There is a reason I mentioned Jeremy Gramsom. In a report that just came out, Jeremy Gramsom himself admitted his own faults regarding Tesla. If you look at the title you are currently watching, it is a report from Fortune magazine.
Regarding Elon Musk, should I describe him as a vacuum cleaner sucking up money out of thin air? To put it literally in Korean, people might defend him as someone of propaganda, agitation, and charisma, but to put it more simply in modern terms, he is literally sucking money up from thin air. He says he bought a Tesla in 2019 and drives it around happily with his wife.
However, he has maintained his usual philosophy that while cars are good, just because a car is good does not necessarily mean Tesla's stock price will be good. Jeremy Gramsom spoke very negatively about Tesla regarding Adam Jonas... One of the reasons he spoke so negatively, to the point of surpassing others, is that he had never seen this side of Elon Musk in his entire life.
As you all know, it hasn't been long since Tesla started generating substantial profits. In a letter from 2019, Gramm said that it was a company with absolutely no profit, and that it did n't seem likely to generate any profit in the future either, so it looked like it would go bankrupt soon. And indeed, it did come right to the brink of collapse, didn't it?
However,recently, Jeremy Gramm gave an interview saying, "I was wrong." He states that when he bought a red Tesla in 2019, he said, "This is too expensive. The stock price is still too bubbled. It is too high for the valuation," yet he points out that since then, the Tesla stock price has risen tenfold.
And as you can see now, he is sending the highest praise. He adds the highest compliments to Elon Musk and his Tesla management team, saying they were a management team that created miracles, and conveys that he made his biggest mistake three years ago by simply comparing Tesla to cars like Volkswagen or GM.
Perhaps in Jeremy Gramm's mind, when watching movies about Steve Jobs during IBM's heyday, Apple... It was a startup that had just begun. Just as Apple overtook IBM to rise to the top, there is now praise that Tesla has risen to the highest ranks among established automakers. One of the reasons I am introducing this article to you today is that recently, those who had previously judged, analyzed, and given low marks to Tesla with a very cold eye—including Adam Jonas—are turning their backs on it.
While Tesla's stock price may fluctuate in the short term and struggle amidst a downward market trend, Gramsom and others who speak positively about the company's value in the coming years are now giving Tesla the highest possible score. It is a very welcome article that has come out tonight, and it is not just anyone who has spoken favorably about Tesla and continues to sell it persistently—it is Cash Woo, not some "money tree lady"—but a truly cold, sharp, and critical critic.
He is someone whose arguments have always been based on facts and reality. Yet, recently, he has evaluated Tesla by saying that he had seen and judged it wrong in the past, calling it akin to a " diaper"—he probably used that expression in English. He is the one who made Tesla what it is today, and we must continue to pay attention to it.
Just as we discussed Elon Musk as a genius entrepreneur in a previous video, perhaps we ourselves are significantly undervaluing Tesla amidst the recent volatile stock price fluctuations. I would like you to remember one thing: whether you invest in Tesla, F, or Nvidia, the fact is that successful legendary investors have reaped great wealth by investing with a focus on the big picture and long-term insights, rather than dwelling on minor fluctuations and shakes.
I know many of you are feeling quite down lately because Tesla's stock price has dropped so much. I hope you find some comfort in this video. And as a tip, I believe it is essential for you as a Tesla shareholder to watch how far Tesla's rebound, starting on Monday, continues. If you found our video helpful, we are leaving now.
It will be coming up soon: Jeremy Grantham's talk on the current stock market and the US economy. Now, if you just search for "Faith Reading Books" on the Mizuno YouTube channel, you will find "Minho Reading Books on Mind-Based Stocks." It is searchable. Today, I uploaded a very good video titled " This is how legends determine their selling timing." Many of you are currently subscribed.
Apart from the Mizuno channel, I hope you will also subscribe to "Visual Reading New Stock Method Books" so that you can make the DNA of these geniuses your own. Now, let's wrap up by continuing with the news regarding Jeremy Grantham from just two months ago. Thank you. Claims have emerged that the current stock market is in the fourth super-bubble situation since just before the Great Depression.
This is the claim made by Jeremy Grantham, a famous American investor who predicted the dot-com bubble of 2000 and the global financial crisis of 2008. Let's hear the details. Reporter Lim Jong-hyun, what claims did Jeremy Grantham make? He claimed that this is the fourth super-bubble, following the late 1990s and the severe bubble in the US housing market in 2006.
He also predicted that the collapse of this bubble cannot be prevented. In an interview, he diagnosed that the current bubble is very complex yet appears fine on the surface, noting that unlike the past where it occurred in quite narrow sectors, it is showing different patterns occurring across the entire spectrum.
Regarding the legal framework, what are the causes of its occurrence, and when is the collapse expected? Did you predict this? The Federal Reserve's excessive stimulus policies were cited as the primary cause of the bubble. That is why warnings have been issued since at least 2015 that signs of a bubble forming in the stock market were visible.
Furthermore, it was added that just as the dot-com boom heated up the stock market in the late 1990s, the recent AI craze is driving up indices. Therefore, while it appears that this AI craze will continue to push up the overall stock market for another couple of quarters, it was also predicted that ultimately, the law would not be able to prevent a collapse.
Indeed, hasn't the US stock market been very hot recently? Yes, during the past month of June, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq soared by over 6%, marking their fourth consecutive month of gains. In the second quarter, they jumped by as much as 8% and 12%, respectively. The Nasdaq surged by 32% in the first half of the year alone, marking its biggest rise in 40 years.
The market believes that interest rate decisions and the release of second-quarter earnings reports from major companies will be key factors during the Federal Reserve's schedule this month and coming September. This is Lim Jong-yoon from SBS Biz.
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