저자: Sudhanshu · 외국인
요약 보기
캐나라뱅크는 PBR 약 0.96배, PER 6.32배, 배당수익률 3.36%로 펀더멘털이 양호하다고 평가. 분기 순이익은 전분기 대비 약 10% 감소했으나 전년동기 대비로는 증가. 주가는 하락 채널 안에 있으며 200일 이평선 돌파·유지 전까지 구조는 바뀌지 않는다고 봄. 라케시 준준왈라 측의 1억 주 이상 매도는 다른 기회를 찾은 것일 수 있다고 해석. 종합적으로 장기 투자 관점에서 고려 가능하다는 입장.
다듬은 글
The biggest player of the market, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and Association, sold more than 1 crore shares of Can Bank and on the other hand, if we look at its chart, then this stock is trading near its biggest demand zone, so has such a big investor made a mistake or is it a smart move and in today's video, we will decode it with the help of technical and fundamental data of this stock and try to know whether this stock is worth buying at the price of Rs 125 or not.
So let's start the video. First of all we will discuss the fundamentals. This stock is currently trading around 125 and has a book value of 130. Meaning this stock is trading below its book value. PE is also showing the same thing, 6.32 which is quite low. If we look at government banks, the dividend is quite good at 3.36.
Now let's talk about its pros and cons. Again, this stock is trading at 0.96% of book value, which means this stock is quite cheap. Dividend or 3.36% is also a good thing and it has maintained 20.4% healthy dividend pay out means the company is profit making. That's why it is giving dividend. Now let us understand its benefits.
Interest coverage ratio. Interest coverage ratio does not matter much for the banking industry. Interest coverage ratio is for other industries. Because the job of the bank is to take and give interest. Contingent liability. Contingent liability also does not matter much in the banking industry. In other industries, contingent liability means that the case is pending in court.
If the company loses, it will have to pay the money. But what happens in the banking industry is that contingent liability means that suppose if a government project is financed or a project of a big businessman is financed, then they consider it as contingent liability. Interest capitalization will also be legalized for this.
It doesn't make any sense. Working capital day increase means it has increased from 268 to 432. So this also does not matter much because this is not a sales company that is selling soap, oil, spices etc. Now what happens is that suppose there is a company selling a product. So there is a time frame that we have made the sale and now after a month we will get our money back.
We have sold some goods. The money will come back to us from the company. So there is a time frame, it will come in 30 days, it will come in 6 months, it will come in 1 year. But this is not the case in the banking industry. Loans are given here. Now if the loan is given, it is given for 2 years, it is given for 10 years.
The home loan is gone for 30 years. So it has been given for the long term. So this also doesn't matter much. So there are no such big sexes here. Now let's talk further about P comparison. Now here you will see Can Bank which is carrying the fifth position among the top seven banks. The current market price is much below the 125 PE standard and if we look at the net profit, it is Rs 4575 crore which has decreased by -9.78% from the previous quarter and this is the point where the stock holders are in panic that the profit of the company has decreased this time.
Although the profit has been made quite well, we have seen a decline of about 10% and this is the point where people are getting panicky. Let us look further and see the quarterly results and revenue. So the revenue has increased in the March quarter compared to the previous quarter and if seen year on year also it has increased.
Revenue has increased but profit has decreased here. Meaning, business has been done but there has been no profit. Net quarterly profit should be seen. Now look at this. Now this will make it more clear to you. Net profit of Rs 4575 crore in the March quarter is about 10% lower than the December quarter and if we look at the last March quarter, it has come down by about 10% from there as well.
This time, if we look at the March quarter as well as the last quarter, it has come down below 10%. Profit margin revenue has increased and this is the reason why the shareholders are in panic. Now look here at the profit in PNL, if we see the net profit in PNL, now if we see it year on year, then year on year the profit here is increasing to Rs 19712 crore which was Rs 17692 crore in the previous quarter, meaning I understand that if we compare it quarter to quarter, then in this quarter the profit has decreased in the last March quarter, but if we compare it year on year, then the profit has increased, so it is not such a big problem.
There may be panic in this quarter. This cash flow data looks quite interesting. Here you will see that its cash flow was Rs 440 crore in March 20 and March 26 and Rs 54725 crore in March 25. Meaning this time he invested all his money in the market. He has only ₹440 crores. Last time he had ₹54,725 crores in his locker.
So now the money they have invested. Now he has not kept it in the locker. Invested it. Now once you invest, you will get returns on it and you will see its effect on the balance sheet in the next quarter or maybe after that or year on year, which is a good thing. Now let us understand the share holding pattern.
Here you will see that there is no change in the promoter's holding. But if we look at the March quarter from the June quarter, there has been a decrease in FFI by around 1.5% and DIs have increased their holding by around 1% from 10.91% to 11.91% and the public has also increased its holding by around 5%, meaning whatever FF FFI sold, DI and the public have bought it, so there does not seem to be any such problem in the overall fundamentals of this stock.
The fundamentals of this stock are quite good. Profit has declined slightly in this quarter. Due to which we have seen panic selling in this stock. Now let us understand its technical patterns. Earlier this stock was bullish. Then went to the consolidation zone. Then came the upper price rejection and we saw a big fall.
About 30%. After that this stock took lower price rejection. Then this demand zone was created here. There is a strong demand zone. You see, Price is getting rejection from here again and again. Lower price rejection is taking repeated rejections. 200 moving average on the top and this demand zone on the bottom.
He is getting rejection from here again and again. Now again it got rejection from 200 moving average and it can again take support near this demand zone. But one thing to note here is that a descending channel pattern is forming in this stock. You can see a clear descending channel pattern forming.
Time and again, the stock has created a narrow range by taking upper price rejections and lower price support. Now if this price action breaks its upper channel. If the lower price takes rejection and breaks the upper channel and simultaneously sustains above the 200 moving average on the daily time frame, then we can again see a rally in this stock and it can again go towards its previous stock.
But the structure will not change until it breaks the 200 moving average and sustains above it. Only we will not wait for the breaking of the descending channel pattern. We will have to wait for the 200 moving average to break for the structure to change completely. Overall, this stock is quite good from both fundamental and technical point of view.
It can be considered for long term investment. And as far as Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and Association are concerned, why did they sell more than Rs 1 crore worth of stock in this ? So one reason for this could be that this stock was currently in the consolidation zone. Maybe he saw a better opportunity. So they sold some stocks here and not because this stock has now come into a down trend or will go further down.
Well, do let me know by commenting how you liked my analysis and do not forget to subscribe to the channel to understand such technical and fundamental patterns.
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