저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 향후 몇 달은 횡보할 가능성이 크지만, 악재는 대부분 반영됐고 인플레이션 정점 통과 가능성이 있어 새로운 강세장이 곧 시작될 수 있다는 낙관론. [시장 전망] 향후 몇 달간 시장은 횡보할 것으로 봄. 6월 16일을 중요한 저점으로 봄. 강세장 시작 가능성은 몇 달 내로 언급. [연준 금리] 연준이 75bp 인상을 두 차례 단행할 것으로 예상. 이 정도 인상은 이미 시장에 반영돼 있다고 판단. [인플레이션] 상품시장에서는 인플레이션이 이미 정점을 지났을 가능성. 임금 인플레이션도 완화될 것으로 봄. CPI와 PCE 디플레이터도 특히 식품·에너지 등 상품 가격 약세에 힘입어 둔화될 것으로 전망. [공급망] 공급망 차질이 실제로 완화되고 있다고 봄. 뉴욕연준 7월 기업 서베이에서 지불가격·수취가격 지수가 크게 둔화된 점을 근거로 제시. [경기 전망] 이번 국면을 중간 사이클 둔화(mid-cycle slowdown)로 봄. 일부 지표로는 경기침체처럼 보이겠지만 공식 리세션으로 기록되지는 않을 것으로 봄. 고용시장은 여전히 강하다고 평가하며, 소매판매와 산업생산은 2개월 연속 감소했다는 점을 언급. [리스크] 인플레이션이 장기화되거나 경기침체가 본격화되면 전망은 빗나갈 수 있음. 시장은 이를 예의주시 중. 강세 전망을 확정적으로 말하지 않고 자신의 의견으로 한정하며 겸손한 태도를 강조. [출연자 입장] 시장의 악재가 상당 부분 선반영됐다는 입장을 유지하며, 경기침체 가능성을 주장하는 쪽도 존중한다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
ed yardeni the president of your jenny research he joins us now not new to be more optimistic than most i think people i hope have listened to our conversations over the last few weeks uh but a new bull market may be underway in a few months that is a bold call and then some ed well what i think is that uh for the next few months we're going to probably be moving sideways and i think over that time period a lot of the bad news has been widely anticipated is going to occur we're going to get two hikes by the fed 75 basis points each and that's i think pretty much in the market but i think along the way we're going to continue to get evidence that inflation has peaked at least in the commodity markets and then along the way i think we'll see that some moderation and wage inflation and then i think we're actually going to see cpi and consumption deflator inflation moderate and a lot of that could be led by weaker commodity prices particularly food and energy so again the bad news i think has been discounted i think the market would like to see some good news i think last week it was amazing how well the market held up in the face of disappointing cpis and ppis uh i think the market is looking past those i mean it it this comes with big ifs right you you have to have inflation yeah of course you have to have inflation peaking not being protracted right because then if and you can't have a recession either or anything really around the margins of that too if the market starts to sniff some more of that out that you got a problem yeah well it's kind of like walking on a tightrope where one end is being held by the bulls and the other one is held by the bears and they're sort of we are in the middle of a tug of war here uh thinking about where the market's gonna go from here yeah but the bear is shaking the tightrope now right ed the bear is like shaking the tightrope anytime at any time it feels like it's nice and smooth bears like start shaking the tight rope and you're like wobbling all over the place in the market well i think you could see that on a day like today it doesn't take much to get the market to wobble uh but i think uh again june 16th uh i think we made an important low um uh with a lot of ifs as you said uh but the the the the big issue for me is inflation and i i think that we are going to see moderation inflation i noticed that the new york federal reserve survey for july which is the first business survey that's out so far actually did show a moderation in both the prices paid and prices received indexes significant moderations and also evidence that the supply chain disruptions are really abating so you basically see this whole episode as nothing more severe than a mid-cycle slowdown am i right at this point you're absolutely right i changed my mind along the way uh but uh from what i see now we've had a very strong labor market the payroll numbers remain very strong on the other hand last week we had retail sales down at two months in a row in industrial production two months in a row and yet the market looked past that as well so again i think the market is increasingly tuning into a potential for a a mid-cycle slow down it will look like a recession by by some measures but i don't think it'll ever make the official books as a recession uh but with inflation it feels like you're declaring victory in the game and we're only in the first quarter no i wouldn't we got a lot of game we got a lot of game to play and the and the opponent inflation and the fed is formidable god i i would never declare victory here the the market is all all-knowing more often than not and so i'm i'm certainly aware of all the risks that are out there i'm just pointing out that uh the market is discounted a lot of bad news and over the next uh the rest of the year some of the bad news will play out but it's already discounted and there's probably going to be some good news on the inflation front so i'm by no no means am i being uh you know arrogant here and claiming victory uh quite quite the opposite i remain humble in front of this market for sure i understand but if you if you truly believe that this is nothing but a mid-cycle slowdown in in some respects in essence you're declaring victory that we're not going to have a recession and thus your thesis can play out that's kind of where i was going that's why all i'm declaring is that's my opinion of where we are right now in the likely outlook for the economy there's a lot of people who think we're going to have a hard landing a significant recession so no i again by no means am i saying that i'm right and they're wrong
Comments 0