저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 주식시장이 버블이며 경기침체가 올 것이라며 약세 입장을 유지한다. 시장 상황: 당시 S&P500과 나스닥이 사상 최고치를 경신했고 실적 시즌은 양호했으나 선행 PER 18배로 5년 평균(15배 안팎)보다 높다고 짚었다. 고용지표 비판: 실업률(U-6)은 7.9%로 하락했으나 쉬프는 경제활동참가율 하락(62.7%), 비경제적 사유 시간제 근로 증가, 실질 시간당 임금 감소를 들어 고용이 약하다고 주장했다. 경기 전망: 현재의 낙관은 거짓 낙관이며 감세·규제완화 기대에 의존한다고 보고, 시간이 지나면 경기침체가 온다고 전망했다. 주식과 달러에 문제가 될 것이라고 했다. 원자재: 유가가 2년래 고점을 찍었다며 원자재 새 강세장의 시작이라고 주장했다. 자산 배분: 신흥시장에 많이 투자하고 있으며 최근 미국 증시를 앞서고 있다고 밝혔다. 2013~2015년에는 미국 주식이 더 나았다고 인정했다. 밸류에이션/심리: CAPE를 VIX로 조정한 지표상 주식이 역대급으로 비싸고, 투자자들이 하락을 전혀 걱정하지 않는 과잉 낙관(비이성적 과열)이 있다고 봤다. 리스크: 미국 경제는 2007년보다 문제가 크며, 일반 대중은 여전히 시장에 참여하지 않는다고 언급했다. 합병 붐(Broadcom의 Qualcomm 인수 추진 보도)과 Apple 실적도 주요 화제였다.
다듬은 글
well if the rally that just won't stop today S&P 500 and Nasdaq surging to all-time highs driven by a combination of earnings news and merger news the session began benign enough after that October jobs report came in just below consensus we did see a sharp drop decline in participation the real unemployment rate the u6 edged down at 7.9 percent from eight point three percent that's huge in part because folks working part time for economic reasons plunged some almost three hundred and seventy thousand now we've got four point eight million of them and by the way this metric for the u6 the record low is six point eight percent back in October at two thousand we also got the IOM report on the service economy that came in at its highest level in 12 years and midway through the session Qualcomm began to surge on reports out of The Wall Street Journal that Broadcom was preparing a bit perhaps around $70 I think that would be a real lowball number but it does underscore the lot of names out there in play we're going to see a lot more merger mania and then of course its earnings we can't forget about that Apple's big beat last night investors now okay with chasing names as long as you're providing strong financial guidance by the way this earning season thus far has been pretty impressive according to fact said 81% of S&P 500 names have reported 66 percent of beat on sales 74 percent of being on earnings per share right now your forward p/e is 18 yes well above the five-year average was slightly above 15 nowhere near levels generally associated with major market crashes still though heading into the weekend many are fretting that maybe there's too much hysteria stocks of soaring valuations are out sighs this is sense of complacency and now merger mania here to discuss with me perma bull I'm sorry Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital peter it's been too long how you doing I'm good how are you look fantastic you looked and rested like the most interesting man in the world but what about this market how you feeling about it well look I think it's a bubble doesn't mean it can't get any bigger but you know you mentioned the jobs market today you know this is a continuation of the same weak employment trends that put Trump in the White House almost a million people left the labor force in October 3rd biggest exit it ever we have a new record for the number of Americans not in the labor force labor force participation dropped to sixty two point seven and then look at real hourly earnings actually went down they had to round it up to get it to zero so you have I think a third of the jobs created a third were waiters and bartenders and most of those are part-time jobs so this is not a strong economy I like what I'm seeing though when I see when I read these business reports when I read these earnings reports when I see durable goods or business investments coming on so there does seem to be a disconnect with the official BLS report but everything else all the other end evidence out there whether you consider its soft data or hard data points an economy where the Wills of Commerce are moving maybe not to as fast as you want them to move but they're certainly moving in the right direction well I think there's a lot of optimism unfortunately I think it's false optimism I think that had a Hillary Clinton one I think we'd already be in a recession and I think the reason that we're not is because people are convinced that maybe things are gonna get better that we're gonna cut taxes get rid of regulations and we're gonna have a lot of economic growth but I think people are overlooking an enormous problem that it's actually getting worse and I think once this false confidence wears off and and people start being a little bit more realistic I think we're still headed to recession maybe it's gonna happen a year later but this is gonna be a big problem for the stock market it's gonna be a problem for the dollar meanwhile look at commodities oil hit a new high today new two-year high I think that's the beginning of a trend alright so speaking of being realistic though realistically if someone was bearish over the last nine years or so they missed out on a huge opportunity to make a whole lot of money how this how does someone who's anxious about this market still reconcile the the need to make money in a market that has gone up yeah well I mean I've got a lot of money in emerging markets and they're actually outperforming the US market this year so the US market is not the only market that's going up now I will concede that I would have been better off had I invested in US stocks in 2013 14 and 15 those were years where the US did a lot better than the markets that I'm in but since the beginning of last year we've been able to beat the US stock market but I think that we're early on in the bull markets in some of these foreign markets again as I said commodities I think are just beginning new bull markets before I let you go give me the room yellows / red flag that the average invest should be looking for though that maybe this time to exit look well I think if you look at the amount of complacency relative to the overvaluation stocks have really never been this expensive and people have never been this sure that they're not going to go down in what metric well if you look at like the Cape for evaluations but then adjusted by the VIX and look at the fact that people are not concerned at all and believe me the US economy today has bigger problems that it had in 2007 before the financial crisis that people aren't this not arresting on zubrin's out there people aren't going in bars and watching stock on TV you know in other words the average person out there a lot of them still not even in this market well the average person is broke I mean partly part-time bartending that you know you can't really get into the stock market but I say there is a lot of irrational exuberance among professional investors people that are better managing money for a living I mean here we got let you go buddy okay bring you back more often I love hearing your point of view and I appreciate you coming in
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