저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
ARK는 비트코인에 대한 확신이 오히려 커졌다고 주장. 스테이블코인이 신흥국에서 달러 대체 수단으로 쓰이면서 2030년 목표가 $150만에서 20~30만 달러 하향 가능성을 인정. 금과 비트코인 상관관계는 낮고(0.14), 금이 선행지표 역할을 했다고 봄. 초기 투자자(OG) 매도 관찰. 비트코인은 인플레·디플레 모두에 대한 헤지라고 주장하며 사모신용 등 카운터파티 리스크 우려 언급. Michael Saylor 인용: 21년간 연평균 약 29% 수익률 기대, 변동성은 특성이라고 봄. 24시간 거래 특성상 지정학 이벤트 시 비트코인이 가장 먼저 반응한다고 설명.
다듬은 글
We do believe uh and our conviction has increased that uh Bitcoin is the first global digital private, meaning no government oversight, rules-based, most important part of it, monetary system in history. That is a very big idea. Cathie Wood is doubling down, not backing off. She says ARK Invest's conviction has actually increased.
Bitcoin isn't just another asset. It may be the first truly global private, rules-based monetary system in history. No central authority, no government manipulation. But she also acknowledges reality. In emerging markets, where people live hand-to-mouth, Bitcoin hasn't been the primary escape from currency collapse.
Stablecoins, backed by the US dollar, have stepped in as the practical insurance policy against devaluation. That shift, she admits, trims ARK's long-term bull case slightly. Their famous $1.5 million 2030 target could be reduced by $200,000 to $300,000. Then comes the interesting part. Gold has gone parabolic, yet Bitcoin hasn't followed.
If Bitcoin is digital gold, shouldn't it move the same way? Cathie points out something critical. Since 2019, the correlation between gold and Bitcoin has been surprisingly low. In other words, Bitcoin isn't just digital gold. It's evolving into its own asset class. From a broader market perspective, that divergence could actually be bullish.
Gold rallies when fear dominates. Bitcoin tends to explode when liquidity expands and institutional capital rotates back into risk assets. If macro conditions loosen into 2026, Bitcoin may not follow gold. It may outperform it. If you're finding value in these insights, like, comment, and subscribe as we continue bringing you more powerful clips from Cathie Wood's interview.
Now, what has happened in in the last year or so? Stablecoins have have been usurping one of the roles that many of us thought Bitcoin would play. Uh in the emerging markets, people who are living hand-to-mouth, meaning they don't have a lot of savings, they would much prefer the the dollar. And stablecoins are backed pretty much 100%
by dollar or dollar-based assets. Uh and so, that is their preferred um uh insurance policy against their own currencies devaluation and the loss of purchasing power and wealth. Uh so, from that point of view, in our long-term forecast, which our bull case for 2030 has been 1.5 million dollars, that would have taken 2 to 300,000 dollars off of that price target.
But, what else has happened in the last year? We've seen gold um really go parabolic. And Bitcoin has not done the same. Well, how can that be? It's digital gold, we thought. Well, if you look at the correlation between gold and Bitcoin, you'll see it's very low, especially since 2019. Uh since more traditional investors have become have been getting involved with it, the correlation is 0.14.
So, almost no correlation. Um but if you if you zoom out and you look at the longer-term price chart of Bitcoin, what you'll see is gold often leads, and certainly in the last [clears throat] two cycles, Bitcoin's uh performance. Uh so, gold is a leading indicator uh in in in at least the last two cycles.
Um we think the other thing going on is we're seeing a lot of OGs uh selling. Those who were very early on, very early adopters of Bitcoin, are selling. Now, why are they selling? Well, uh according to some of them, you know, Bitcoin has lost the plot. Too too much traditional finance is get uh financial players are getting involved.
Uh and from our point of view, all along, and this is in uh our collaboration with Dr. Arthur Laffer, known for the Laffer curve, uh he has said, "The more that Bitcoin becomes involved in the traditional financial ecosystem, meaning traditional financial institutions start adopting it, uh the the stronger his conviction will be that it is indeed uh the new global monetary system I described." So, our conviction has actually gone up uh as uh Bitcoin has gone down here.
Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation and deflation um because uh the chaotic part of this is and and it's ripping through the markets now. A lot of um a lot of traditional industries and and and companies uh you know, being brought the whole SaaS space, uh the disaster, as they're calling it. Um we think there is merit to that particular one, but I think you're going to see disruption all over the place um because the five innovation platforms that I mentioned are going to disrupt the existing world order.
And what does that mean? If these technologies are so deflationary, it's going to be tough for the traditional world that's gotten used to sort of the you know, the the 2 to 3% inflation um to adjust. Uh particular They'll have to embrace some of these technologies faster than expected. Uh so there, you know, the idea of counterparty risk, I think um is beginning to surface.
Uh we've we've seen it with First Brands. We've seen, you know, private equity and private credit, especially, is where there've been a lot of excesses. Um SAS, they they are too exposed to that. You know, are we going to see counterparty risk uh manifest more broadly? If so, Bitcoin doesn't have that problem.
Uh and so it is a a good hedge against deflation as well as inflation. Michael Saylor looks 21 years out and expects roughly 29% average annual returns. Not straight up, not easy. A serpentine pattern, massive rallies, brutal drawdowns, but trending higher over time. Volatility isn't a flaw, it's the feature.
He argues Bitcoin is the only global asset trading 24/7. If geopolitical chaos hits over a weekend, you can't trade stocks, real estate, or gold, but you can trade Bitcoin. That makes it the most liquid and the most reactive asset on Earth. Traders move billions into crypto exchanges because they can buy, sell, panic, and capitalize instantly.
When Bitcoin drops 5% on a Sunday, someone is panic selling and someone else is scooping it up at a discount. That capital isn't flowing into Nvidia, Apple, or traditional markets. It's flowing into Bitcoin. From a macro perspective, this 24/7 liquidity plus growing institutional adoption is why volatility remains high and why long-term upside remains intact.
If you're thinking long-term, the weekend noise doesn't matter. The trend does. Let's get more of his insights. 21 years, you know, and and I expect about 29% ARR over the next 21 years. Um I've always thought that we would have rallies and drawdowns, right? So I I see it as a serpentine pattern, you know, where it's just slightly less than 30% over time, but there'll be periods when it will surge and there'll be periods when it will draw down.
Uh that doesn't change. Well, you know, if something happens in the Middle East, Bitcoin will be the only thing you can sell. It'll also be the only thing you can buy. Mhm. And so that just means that a lot of people that want to trade on the weekend are transferring capital to crypto exchanges so that they can either buy or sell or sell, buy, sell, and buy Bitcoin four times between Friday at 4:00 p.m.
and Monday morning at 9:30 a.m. And yeah, if you're a trader, what does that make this? It makes it the most interesting asset in the world for you. If you're an investor over 4 years, what the heck difference does it make whether or not it gets bought, sold, bought, and sold this weekend? In fact, here's the difference it makes.
There's capital, hot money, that's flowing into this this ecosystem, into the Bitcoin ecosystem, that otherwise would not be allocated. Right? There's There's a trader. Someone's got $20 billion of capital and their choice is they can either leave it in the bank earning sofa or they can put it into the crypto exchange system and they can buy and sell and buy and sell and maybe they'll make 4% this weekend.
Mhm. Right? When Bitcoin crashes by 5%, there's someone buying while there's someone selling. So, people are like, "Oh, it fell 5%." Well, someone Someone woke up at 4:00 a.m. on a Sunday morning to buy it at a 5% discount. So, someone's going to actually make more money on the weekend than they would make holding holding conventional money for a year.
And that capital is not flowing into New York City real estate. It is not flowing into gold. It is not flowing into conventional derivatives. It's not flowing into Nvidia stock. It's not flowing into Apple stock. Why? Because you're not buying and you're not panic selling and rage quitting and buying and capitulating and you know, and leaping into the market on these volatility waves.
So, Bitcoin is most volatile because it's most useful. So, uh Bitcoin represents the global capital market and there are people doing things that you can't do that you could that you won't do that you don't choose to do, you don't wish to do, and they're doing it with that asset and that's what's creating the volatility, but it's also creating the gravitational or the magnetic field which is attracting all of the energy, all the financial energy of the world's being drawn into this space.
All of the political energy, you know, all all all of the digital energy, it's all being drawn into this space because of that utility. And uh I think you just got to make your peace with it. Either you're short-term and you're a trader. If If you're worried about what Bitcoin's going to be in 4 days or 4 weeks or 4 months, you're a trader.
Call yourself a trader and then you better have a trading methodology or or a trading excellence or be in the trading business or be, you know, neutrally hedged so it doesn't matter to you. You're either that or you're an investor, you got a 4-year time horizon and then it just doesn't matter. All you know, all you'd be thinking is, "Well, a lot of capital is surging into the space and a lot of attention is being given to the space that otherwise would not be given to the space because of those crazy traders and let's just let them do their thing because I'm an investor, I'm holding for the long term."
댓글 0