Uber Stock Surges 44% YTD! 🚀 Bill Ackman Bought—Should You?

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우버는 자산경량 모델, 네트워크 효과, 효율적 규모 등 중간 이상의 경제적 해자를 갖췄으나 전환비용은 약함. 로보택시가 최대 위협이며 우버는 파트너십 전략을 취함. 재무는 영업이익률·FCF 우수, 주식보상·희석·부채는 우려. DCF 분석 결과 FCF 성장률 15~20% 가정 시 예상 연수익률 10.5~15%로, 목표 수익률 15%에 못 미쳐 지금은 매수하지 않겠다는 입장.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Hey everyone, my name is Suslav and in today's video we're going to be talking about Uber and lately I've been hearing a lot of chatter about robot taxes and how they could be a real threat to Uber's business and even break its mode. So yeah, we're going to take a closer look at that and we'll go over Uber's mode, its financials, and by the end of the video, I also try to figure out what a fair value for the stock might be by using the CF valuation.

02. And now here is something interesting. Uh, as you can see here, since the start of 2025, Uber stock is already up around 45%. And guess what? Bill Eman, one of the biggest names in investing, just recently bought into the stock. So, what's going on here? And does that hype actually make sense? Let's break it all down.

03. All right, let's talk about Uber's mode. Uh, starting with cost advantage. Uh, so this means being able to offer services cheaper than the competition and Uber has an asset light model. Yeah. What does it mean? Well, uh they don't own the cars or directly employs the drivers. That keeps their fixed costs low and allow them to scale fast without spending tons of money.

04. That's very important. And as they've grown, their revenues have gone up much faster than their costs. Yeah. It's very important here because they are finally profitable. Yeah. And thanks to this scale and better cost control, Uber can now deliver rides and meals more efficiently. Yeah. And I'd say they have some kind of cost advantage mode.

05. And uh here's but yeah, it's a big butt. Part of that comes from using independent contractors instead of employees. What does it mean? Yeah, if if regulations change and they are forced to treat drivers as employees, their costs could jump a lot because right now, well, Uber doesn't have to pay things like health insurance, paytime off, or other employee benefits.

06. Yeah. And that saves them a lot of money. Yeah. So, they would need to employ them and it would be much more expensive. And for Uber's investors, it's definitely something we need to watch moving forward. Okay. Uh now let's uh talk about network effects. And this is when a service becomes more valuable as more people use it.

07. And that fits Uber perfectly. Yeah. Think of it like this. Yeah. More riders attract more drivers. Yeah. More drivers mean shorter weight times and better service, which brings in even more riders. It's a powerful loop. Yeah, but uh that's a limit because studies say that weight times under four minutes are ideal.

08. So adding more drivers doesn't always make a big difference. Yeah. And that's how competitors like Lyft have managed to stick around. Yeah. Offering a pretty similar experience. And still Ubers tried to strengthen its network by adding food deliver and freight. a driver who's waiting for a ride can do deliveries instead, which is which keeps them busy and helps them, you know, earn more and making them more likely to stay, let's say.

09. And also customers using Uber for rides might try Uber Eats, too. Yeah. So, overall, I'd say Uber has a solid mode here. Next up, we have efficient scale, meaning a company operates in a market uh that can't really support many players. Yeah, that's exactly the case with Uber. Yeah, because well, in many cities, it's either Uber or just other mine rival because Uber already has a huge base of riders and drivers.

10. It keeps utilization high and drivers stay busy. Yeah, riders don't wait long. and new players would struggle to match that. Plus, Uber can absorb big costs like insurance, licenses, and tech development. Yeah, costs that could crash a smaller startup, I would say. So, yeah, Uber's size and market position make it hard for new entrance to compete actually.

11. Let's look at intangible assets. Uh, mostly brand, tag, and partnership. And Uber has a strong global brand. In some places, Uber is basically a verb like Google. Yeah. They also run a massive realtime system with dynamic pricing and have collected tons of data on traffic, demand, and rider behavior.

12. And on top of that, they've secured deals with airports, cities, and big events, giving them exclusive pickup zones and stronger local presents. and all of that, you know, this kind of thing gives them an edge over its competitors, I would say. And when it comes to switching costs, actually, it's the it means how hard is it for users to move to a competitor?

13. And honestly, this is Uber's weakest mode. I would say it's super easy to switch between apps. Riders and drivers just go with whatever's cheaper, faster. Yeah. And Uber has tried to lock people in with perks like the Uber one subscription which had I think 25 million members right now something like that and it offers things like ride discounts and free delivery from Uber Eats.

14. Still compared to the other modes this one's not very strong I would say. So overall I'd say Uber has a narrow but meaningful mode. Uh the strongest part is definitely the network effects. Uh the other advantages are there but uh you know they are not bulletproof and could be disrupted down the line.

15. And what about robotaxis? Well, they could be a real gamecher and a big threat to Uber's business. The idea is simple. Uh no human drivers. And that's the core of Uber's current model. Yeah. And robot taxes remove that. Companies like Whimo from Google, Tesla and Cruz from GM are leading the way, but Whimo already runs driverless rides in places like Fenix and San Francisco.

16. And Tesla's testing its first robo taxi fleet in Austin. Uh, Cruz had a setback, but is still in the game. And um you know if robotaxis take off they could beat Uber on price offer more consistent service and even skip Uber's app entirely by using their own platforms and Uber's response instead of building its own tech it's partnering with others like Whimo and Moshula and the idea is to be an open marketplace for robotaxis and not the manufacturer.

17. Yeah. So that way Uber avoids huge research and development costs but it also puts them at risk uh if partners go solo or team up with someone else. Yeah, that's a huge risk I would say. And for example, as for Tesla, yeah, they reportedly show no interest in partnering with Uber, which could limit access to one of the most advanced autonomous fleets.

18. So yeah, robotaxis could either make Uber more efficient or leave it behind completely. And as I said, it's a huge risk. Yeah. For investors. Now, let's move to the financials. I like using stock.com for this. They've got a super useful tool called the Insight Score. Basically, it rates companies from 1 to five in areas like profitability, growth, financial health, management, and so on.

19. A score of five means the company is doing great, and a one means there are some red flags. It's a quick and super easy way to get a snapshot of how the business is doing overall. And Uber scores four out of five, a meaningfully strong rating, I would say. So, let's go into more details. Starting with margins.

20. As you can see here, uh these numbers alone don't tell us much. We need to compare them with Uber's closest competitors. And we also want to know if these numbers have remained stable over time. And for competitors, as you can see on this slide, I've chosen Lyft, uh, Door Dash, and Just Eat Takeaway.

21. And feel free to pause if you want more details on them. And now, let's look at gross margins here. And, uh, as you can see, uh, Uber's and Lift's margins are very similar. Yeah, the green and orange lines and Door Dash and just take just eat takeaway have significantly higher gross margins. Yeah. Why is that?

22. Well, for Uber, the biggest revenue source is mobility. Essentially, rides booked rates up. Yeah. Basically meaning taking me or you from point A to point B. And this type of business has lower margins. Yeah, and Lyft is entirely mobility focused as well. Yeah, the key takeaway here is consistency over the years in case of Uber.

23. Yeah, they've been consistent. So, it's it's it's a good sign I would say and it's reassuring. Now, let's talk about operating margins. It includes all businesses like marketing, research and development, administration and operations and so on. So, not just direct service costs. And as you can see here, Uber clearly leads in operating margins.

24. You might be wondering why. Well, Uber's larger scale technology efficiencies and diversified revenue streams allow them to spread costs more effectively. Yeah. And here we can see Ubis in action actually. Yeah. This trend continues with net margins here as well. Yeah, and Uber consistently outperforms its competitors over the years and that's definitely a good sign.

25. And regarding free cash flow margins, as you can see here, Uber is dominant. Yeah, competitors like Door Dash and Lyft show lower or more volatile margins due to aggressive growth, spending, and smaller scale. And uh zooming out even further, Uber's free cash flow, yeah, as you can see here, has surged dramatically here, leaving competitors far behind.

26. So Uber isn't just ahead. It's in a different financial league now. Yeah. Generating substantial cash and this resilience is crucial. Yeah, I have to emphasize that. Yeah, especially given uncertainties around robotexes as we've discussed. Yeah, so they are in a good position here. And now let's shift to management.

27. A significant concern is their high stockbased compensation relative to uh free cash flow. As you can see here, last bought around 22% of their free cash flow went to employees as stockbased compensation. Substantial figure I would say. But this alone isn't the whole picture. We need to examine the overall share count.

28. And Uber's share count increased about uh 2% as you can see here. And historically uh historically Uber's share outstanding have risen steadily. Yeah, as you can see in this chart. And what does it mean? Well, as shareholders, uh we face dilution owning a smaller piece of the company each year, which is concerning as something critical to watch moving forward.

29. So, what about their return on invested capital? Well, this metric currently stands impressively around 37%. But this wasn't always the case. Yeah, historically Uber reported persistent losses. And it's unclear whether this high ROIC is sustainable. Yeah, that's definitely something we need to watch moving forward.

30. And turning to growth, these numbers are impressive. uh and Uber's net income, as you can see here, has skyrocketed. This profitability milestone results from strong trip growth, improved cost management, and beneficial one-time accounting gains. I will be closely watching whether this impressive growth remains sustainable.

31. And regarding financial health, Uber's total debt is roughly double its uh total cash. As you can see from this chart, you know, it's an uncomfortable position to be in. However, if we go back, uh the current ratio is above one. Yeah, as you can see here, meaning Uber has more current assets than liabilities due within a year.

32. Yeah, suggesting it should manage short-term obligations without issue. So, that was the financials. Uh now, let's shift our focus to two of the most important key performance indicators for Uber, which are gross bookings and uh take rate. Okay, so first gross bookings represent the total amount customers spend on Uber services whether rides or food delivery.

33. And in Uber's most recent results, actually gross bookings reach a record high and have steadily climbed indicating strong demand for its services. So that's definitely a good sign. And second, the take rate, the percentage of each booking Uber retains after paying drivers. And it has also been trading upwards, you know, in comparison to its previous years, currently sitting at around 27%.

34. So rising uh gross bookings coupled with an increase take rate demonstrate that Uber is not only growing but also capturing a larger share of revenue from each transaction. And this combination is a very positive sign for Uber's overall financial health, I would say. And finally, let's move to the valuation.

35. And given Uber's strong recent performance in generating healthy free cash flow, we'll use this metric for valuation purposes. And free cash flow represent actual cash remaining after capital expenditures available for share buybacks, debt repayments or strategic investments. And uh comparing uh Uber's price to free cash flow ratio here as you can see to its competitors, Lyft appears cheapest while Uber falls somewhere in the middle with roughly 20 25.

36. Yeah. However, Uber's 2-year average for this metric is around 30 indicating current valuation might be relatively attractive. But still valuation isn't solely about current ratios. We must also consider expected growth and uh to get a clear picture. Let's perform a quick uh discount free cash flow valuation to determine whether Uber's current stock price makes sense.

37. All right. So I run a simple DC evaluation using a fiveyear projection of Uber's free cash flow. And uh by the way, if you've been enjoying all the charts and data I've shown in this video, they're all from stockunalog.com. I use it every time I analyze a stock. And honestly, it makes the whole research process way easier.

38. And uh if you want to give it a try, there's a 10% discount through the link in the description. Plus, they offer 30-day money back guarantee. So, there's really no risk in testing it out. and it's a great way to support the channel and a great tool to seriously level up your own research. Okay, now back to our analysis.

39. And as I mentioned earlier, I'm using free cash flow for this valuation. And yes, stock unlock lets you choose from a few different options here. But uh what uh we are doing here, this one made the most sense, I would say. So I'm going with free cash flow. All right, let's crunch some numbers. I searched the internet and found that the expected annual return over the next five years is around 20%.

40. So I try to put it here and well that seems quite strong to me. Personally it's very challenging to predict this accurately because Uber doesn't have a long history of profitability or positive free cash flow. And uh do I think this type of growth is achievable? Well, if we scroll down and uh looking at uh this projected chart below, it's not out of reach, I would say, but I would prefer being a bit more conservative here.

41. So, let's set it at uh rather 15%. And now this chart seems more realistic to me. So, let's stick with uh these numbers. And regarding uh the price ratio, let's assume it will remain roughly where it is right now around 25. And based on these assumptions, we are looking at an estimated 10.5% annual return over the next 5 years.

42. But even if we assume a more optimistic, let's say 20% free cash flow growth, the expected annual return moves to around 15%. And that's actually right my desire desired return. And let me clarify this one. Yeah, as individual investors, we should aim for returns higher than say S&P 500. And that's why my target is set around 15%.

43. So what are my thoughts? Well, I'm not buying Uber at this price because 20% annual growth rate of free cash flow, you know, over the next 5 years is it's too high for me. And additionally, there is significant uncertainty around the future of robotexes and the impact this could have on Uber's business.

44. And for me, it's too much risk. I'm staying away from this business for now. But hey, that's just my opinion. Always make sure to do your own research and let me know in the comments what you think about Uber. All right, that was my take on Uber. If you found this video helpful, please make sure to hit the like button, subscribe, and as always, thanks so much for watching and I'll see you in the next one. Bye.