저자: Kristian Peter · 외국인
다듬은 글
well there are three scenarios for how things are going to develop in the global economy North America this year my bisland is one of a u-shape recovery where the recovery is gonna be an annex a far below trend very anemic the optimist and the markets at least the equity markets the US are pressing in v-shape recovery we're very strong growth in the second half of the year into next year and of course there is a risk of a el of what I call a greater depression that's my baseline for the rest of the decade but not for this year I think that our forces are gonna lead us to a depression but the middle of the decade was not a prediction for this year essentially my view is that there's gonna be a you because this is a global shock both households and corporates will have to spend less and save more precautionary savings are going to go higher incomes gonna be lower and then the less capital spending buoyed by the corporate sector and the household sector debt to the leverage for housing capital spending is purchase of the office so you spend less you save more you do last attracts will be a global investment slump will be a global savings glut that's a recipe for very anemic recovery of the u.s.
of Canada of the global economy so the one thing that I think sets you apart from many others and that would include the vast majority of investors is this notion that this is a crisis that we all recognize that there will be a contraction the question is how long and how deep related to this crisis you believe that later in the decade is when there's a price to be paid that this potential for depression and deep slump happens much later is there anything between now and then that we governments could do to stave that off unfortunately fear that there are some major trends and in a recent publication I discussed what I call the ten deadly DS they're gonna lead us to a greater depression sometime later in this decade is only a matter of when not whether and I think that even if we're gonna do monitoring fiscal steamers or a forum I think the train has left the station the train rack is a slow-motion one it's not gonna happen this year but we have fundamental forces like a debt and deficits both traveling public on a lead to insolvency and funded by dt2 coming from demographics that become worse and revolved understanding but then I had initially deflates them and real body of that's gonna increase and that's gonna make more people more in solve and then was debasing currencies by doing effectively quantitive easing of large fiscal deficit that eventually with negative supply stock is gonna lead to inflation by the middle of the decade we've also the digital disruption because they have it for economic activity from China in Asia to North America will have to substitute labor with capital in firms gonna have to cut cost to save more and spend less and that's going to imply more automation more robotics we are in the process of the globalization of the capellini two years in China we are seeing this Democrat democracy backlash people are becoming scared are becoming more populist and the authoritarian populist government coming to power all over the world and we've also this dualistic is that edgy gravelly in us in China the cold war between the US and China is becoming colder is going to get very ugly we have digital rivalries cyber warfare is gonna get worse over the next few years this is the way or fur is gonna be is not there the conventional words the enemies of the western US whether China Russia Iran North Korea they cannot fight the US on the west with conventional weapons gonna use a symmetric warfare cyber war friend the way of weakening our economy society poverty or interfere with the u.s.
election and then finally we have also these what I call deadly man-made disasters pandemics and global climate change are not natural disasters even pandemics come from poor health condition destruction of ecosystem and so on let alone global climate change so yeah ten forces that are very fundamental that existed even before this crisis in each one of them in thinking about it is exacerbated and accelerated in varied Wars but is crisis and therefore will end up into a great enterprise so it's gonna happen this decade and policies cannot do much about it was actually policies of more stimulus monetary fiscal credit and otherwise I'm gonna actually exacerbate the debt imbalances they're gonna exacerbate the debasement of currencies yes and with negative supply shock coming from the globalization protection he's been populist and economic nationalist that's not increase the risk of stagflation recession and inflation the underlying today the risk is deflation in a couple of years we'll have risk of inflation like we had when we had negative supply all shocks in the 1970s so when seeing ahead a grade of the price on a theory so then I mean as you note if many of those things would have been a risk we're already a risk they are being exacerbated I just want to focus on one of the DS that's one of the first and that's the debt level personal and of course sovereign we are in way over our heads we were before this credit card before this great crisis in terms of how we get out of it is there is there a natural path that would resolve that because it doesn't seem clear with governments behaving the way that they are well in the last decade debt levels that went higher initially they lower financial crisis was too much private debt then we socialize the losses there was a massive increase in public debts estimates are the public and private debt as a share of GDP is now 350 as of the end of last year but this year might be closer to 400 in the advanced economies is 388 less than 300 in emerging markets or in China is also about 300 percent so that that rates are gonna become higher in last decade what saved us was with a decorator where I and was the rhetoric about the leveraging but there was not much deleveraging or caring that servicing ratios were low because we're short rates close to zero if not negative like in Europe and Japan and we're long rates alone now again the same thing is happening right now the policies of zero policy rates or negative or two we are leading to short and long rates to be low but they are love only for safe sovereigns and save people in the private sector you can have zero policy rate you can have bond yields close to zero or negative but credit spreads in the private sector of those that had indebted whether households a corporate large and small ones financial institution banks non-bank shadow financial institution in the country overall those credit spread can explode if you're a situation of excessive leverage and with an explosion of leverage in the private sector especially corporates in Shaba Bank say in US and parts of North America and therefore doesn't matter whether the bond yields are close to zero for safe governments or policy rates are zero credit spreads can blow up and if you blow up you have a crisis so now you have a deadly combination of rising debt level they're gonna explode and you'll have now pregnancy rate much higher than before yes some central banks are now buying corporate bonds and not just investment grade the Fed decided even to go into the risky junk bonds but it's only for the names of those were investment greater now just below that tons of other firms that are deep into the junk bonds and another be helped by the fact that cannot be by the fact just this morning announcement hurts major auto rental companies filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy you have major institution large and small they're gonna go bankrupt so we have a that Christ is gonna become explosive and with demographics and more spending on health care is needed to deal with pandemics will have unfunded liabilities from their care system that are unfunded like the West Medicare most of the wall that are phase you go the Mangala debt deflation goes prices are gonna fall in the short run wigs are fall in the ability of people to service them that is going to reduce that's what called a effect deflation candle a deal and more scenario so all these things that lead us to that crisis over time
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