Derivative Market Traders | Michael Burry, Bill Ackman | Risk Pays Off

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Michael Burry와 Bill Ackman의 과거 CDS 기반 공매도(빅숏) 사례를 분석한 교육성 영상으로, 향후 시장 예측이 아님. 사례 1: Michael Burry - 서브프라임 모기지 채권(MBS)이 실제로는 부실했다고 보고 CDO 등을 통해 공매도. - 2005년부터 베팅을 시작했으며 2006년에는 펀드가 18% 손실을 봐 투자자 이탈과 유동성 압박이 발생. - 2007년에 베팅이 적중해 청산 시 큰 수익을 올림(영상 기준 설명 수익률 약 700%, 수수료 전). 사례 2: Bill Ackman (2020년 코로나 시기) - 2020년 2월 코로나 확산으로 시장 붕괴를 우려해 기업채 CDS를 매수해 하락 방어 및 수익 추구. - 3월 3일 투자자에게 포트폴리오 보호 조치를 알림. - CDS 보험료가 약 0.5%에서 약 1.5%로 3배 오르며 약 2.6억~26억 달러 규모의 평가이익 발생(영상 계산 기준). - 3월 중순 이후 절반 청산, 3월 23일경 전량 청산; 이후 수익으로 Hilton, Howard Hughes, Berkshire Hathaway 등 매수. - 해당 베팅 수익으로 2020년 연초 대비 약 16.5%, S&P500 약 -11% 대비 상대 우위라고 설명. 결론: 영상은 두 사례를 통해 CDS 구조, 유동성 리스크, 헤지 타이밍을 설명하며 현재 자산에 대한 매수·매도 권유나 향후 1~3개월 가격 전망은 포함되지 않음. 리스크 요인: 과거 사례의 수익률은 레버리지·옵션·CDS 특성과 특정 시기 조건에 따른 결과이며 재현성이 보장되지 않음. 파생상품 거래는 원금 이상 손실 가능성이 있음. 출연자 전망: 해당 영상 내 현재 시점 가격 방향 예측 발언 없음.

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01. Michael burry the hedge fund manager made famous by Michael Lewis's book the big short and the movie of the same name if you've not seen the movie here's a clip of how burry made his billions mortgage-backed securities is up prime loans tranches it's pretty confusing right does it make you feel bored or stupid well it's supposed to Wall Street loves to use confusing terms to make you think only they can do what they do or even better for you just to leave them the [ __ ] alone so here's Margot Robbie in a bubble bath to explain basically Lewis Ranieri's mortgage bonds were amazingly profitable to the big banks they made billions and billions on their 2% fee they call for selling each of these bonds but then they started running out of mortgages to put in them after all there are only so many harms and so many people with good enough jobs to buy them right so the banks started filling these bonds with riskier and riskier mortgages and venture that way they can keep that perfect machine churning right by the way these risky mortgages are called subprime so whenever you hear subprime think [ __ ] a friend Michael burry found out that these mortgage bonds that was supposedly 65% triple-a we're actually just personally full of [ __ ] so now he's going to show up the bombs which means to bet against now [ __ ] off Michael burry made his short bet by collateralized debt obligations CDOs basically betting against the mortgage-backed security market Bill Ackman makes his money betting against commercial bonds turning twenty seven million into 2.6 billion dollars how did he do it smash that like button and we're about to show you well he's a legendary hedge fund manager that manages about twelve billion dollars in assets six billion through a publicly traded stock that anyone can buy and it's listed on the English and Amsterdam markets and he manages about six billion dollars privately you might also have heard of him as the guy who tried to unsuccessfully short Herbalife a nutrition supplement company this failed bet from about 2013 to 2018 ended up costing his firm about a billion dollars this led to Ackman having terrible performance from 2015 to 2018 in fact his returns were negative each year and many investors actually began withdrawing from his fund Ackman was being counted out and he was motivated to turn around this performance in 2019 his fund returned a staggering 58% and he became once again one of Wall Street's favorite fund managers his fund since inception has returned eight hundred and eighty five percent compared to only two hundred and fifty nine percent of the S&P 500 this works out to about a fifteen percent yearly return for Ackman compared to only seven point five percent of the market so Ackman's powers were growing as we approached the crisis in early 2020 so what was Ackman's Big Short position and how is it different from the famous original big short position Michael burry a famous hedge fund manager was featured in a book called the big short and later a Hollywood movie in 2015 because of his famous trade that helped his fund return a hundred and sixty seven percent in 2007 and he closed his fun earning almost seven hundred percent before fees burry liked Ackman bought credit default swaps we will soon explain how these swaps work in a more thorough example but for now let's let Warren Buffett the legendary investor explained the basics well they can be a very destructive instrument I mean if you think about it you can't go out and insure my house against fire because you do not have an insurable interest as they call it in the trade because once you insure my house against fire and you may decide that you know that maybe dropping a few of matches might be a good idea however there is a key difference enactment speak short to buries burry started shorting mortgage bonds in 2005 and it took him until 2007 to realize his profits this was a big issue as investors worried when the fund lost 18 percent of their money in 2006 the position was such a liquidity drain that if buries other assets stayed flat his fund would lose 8% a year because of this client started withdrawing their money and burry had to cut his position by almost 2/3 as clients withdrew money it seemed that burry would have to liquidate the position at a huge loss to mitigate this risk he took draconian measures and he suspended all client withdrawals even with the suspension of withdrawals if the bet didn't pay off in 2007 and if it took another two years for the mortgage market to implode burry may have lost it all fortunately for him the bet did pay off in 2007 and he was able to liquidate his position at a humongous profit so imagine Bill Ackman now his trade is almost exactly the same as Michael buries except instead of taking about two years to pay off he got his pay off in about 30 days how did he do it let's go through was the big short number 2 in February 2020 ahran was increasingly concerned that the market was about to blow up because of the coronavirus he said the following when I did the math I said you know the laws of probability tell me this thing is going to be everywhere every one fifty percent of the world is going to get infected and I sort of rolled this thing forward and I said it's just it's just a matter of time at first he was so nervous that he thought about liquidating just all his assets and going a hundred percent in cash he then calmed down and he thought of a way to protect his portfolio without selling his stocks he then updated investors on March 3rd with an ominous message he said during the past 10 days we have taken steps to protect the portfolio from downward market volatility we have done so because we believe that efforts to contain the coronavirus are likely to have a substantial negative impact on the and global economies and on the equity and credit markets Bill Ackman like brewery used credit default swaps to make money the reason for using credit default swaps is actually a safer way to bet four defaults and bonds so even though the movies called the Big Short technically you're just buying insurance and in reality you're actually going long in the position so essentially as Warren Buffett says you're basically buying insurance on a home but you don't own the home so you actually just hope it burns down but if the house doesn't burn down you only risk losing those insurance premiums that you paid typically a usual short position has unlimited losses if the asset keeps going up in value so credit default swaps protect your downside risk so Ackman used credit default swaps as his weapon of choice to bet against the market will later show at the end his risk if the bet did go awry while burry bet against mortgage bonds Ackman turned his eye towards corporate bonds which were trading at historically low yields meaning the market determined that these assets were the safest they've ever been in corporate bond insurance was also at historic lows at only 50 basis points or 0.5 percent he felt given the effects of the virus the price for insurance would rise from 50 basis points to some higher number it eventually did rise to a price of about three times this 50 basis points or 1 point 5 percent but this begs the question how did Ackman then make a hundred times his money if the price for insurance only rose 1 percent or about three times so first if you'd like to calculate how a credit default swap is valued we have a free sheet on our patreon page showing different type of investor inputs but basically for credit default swap insurance to rise from 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent you would need the probability of bond default to go from about 1.5 percent to 5 percent this essentially just means that you would expect now 5 percent of all bonds to default so this happened but how did Ackman make a hundred times his money well he bought a lot of insurance protection Ackman said in his update letter on march 25th that he paid only 27 million for credit protection what he doesn't necessarily spell out is this 27 million has to be paid monthly for five years so per year that would be 324 million dollars so if the bet didn't pay off in a year he would lose 6% of all his funds money or 324 million dollars on just this one position but if we take that number of 324 million a year divided by the credit default insurance rate of 0.5% that turns into sixty four point seven billion of bonds that Ackman was buying protection on to give a sense of how large that is the u.s.

02. investment grade corporate debt market is just over six trillion so Ackman was essentially buying insurance against 1% of all these bonds the second part of our sheet is on the second tab and you can see how this value would go from about 1.6 billion to about 4.3 billion here is why so the first one is imagine you're an investor getting about 27 million dollars a month which is what Ackman was paying 27 million a month for 12 months times five years is about 1.6 billion the reason it is five years is a typical credit default swap contract is for five years the value of this holding is then discounted by what the US Treasury rate is which was around 1.5 percent so the present value is about one point five five billion however what happens now if the risk rises by three times and now you're paying insurance premiums of about seventy three million dollars a month seventy three million dollars a month times 12 months times five years is about four point three billion or about four point two billion discounted at the risk-free rate if you subtract the difference between the two present values the difference is an increase of about two point six billion dollars in value which is the profit that Ackman made so Ackman quickly had a two point six billion dollar paper gain because he can now sell this position to someone else who wanted to buy credit insurance quickly let's just see what would happen if the price for credit insurance dropped by half as can be seen Ackman's paper value would decline by about eight hundred million but Ackman was fairly confident with credit default swaps at record lows for investment grade bonds that they wouldn't go much lower therefore he didn't expect to lose this amount of money on march 18th when Ackman went on CNBC he had already sold half his position and he was able to completely exit his position by March 23rd right at the peak prices have declined somewhat since then but they are still quite elevated I can be seen credit default swaps are still at about 120 basis points for insurance well above the price that Ackman originally bought his position at what was even better for Ackman is that he exited his Big Short position around March 24th when the market was at its close or down about 24 percent he then began using this profit to buy his favorite stocks Ackman said he increased his stake in Hilton by 34 percent Howard Hughes by a hundred and fifty eight percent and he even bought more of Buffett's company Berkshire Hathaway this a hundred times profit on a twenty seven million dollar investment has led Ackman to be up sixteen point five percent this year compared to the S&P 500 which is down a bit more than eleven percent on the air and he's part of a trade that may inspire another movie and may go down as one of the greatest trades of all time let us know in the comments what trade you think was better Ackman's was certainly better on paper but burry definitely did a lot more research lachman's bet relied mostly on his keen sense of intuition