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Well welcome back hello everyone for Monday's video today we're making a slightly special video always a graphical analysis of bitcoin trading but we're also reading a news because obviously I wanted to make a slightly more dynamic video given that the bitcoin situation is always the same at this point so let's think a bit about forecasts and in particular I wanted to read you a news item which is the one relating to Tom Li, the co-founder of Industry Global Advisors and who says he continues to have a positive opinion.
He obviously concerns the bitcoin market with regards to the end of 2018 and continues to affirm that the target of 20,000 dollars 25 thousand dollars is even possible by the end of 2018 so December 2018 let's go and see in this video if this prediction by Tom Li can actually be valid. It's possible that bitcoin can really reach this price level by the end of December 2018 let's move on to the graph to see exactly how valid this price forecast is and here we are in front of the cool guys let's see if our dear and beloved Tom Li actually does.
You're right, even in this case, we'll see if the possibility of bitcoin rising to those price levels of 20,000-25,000 dollars by December 2018 is actually valid. In the meantime, just a hint at the situation. You see, we're still in this cyclical phase that should end by the end of July. Basically, bitcoin isn't showing signs of falling, it's not even showing signs of rising, so it's remained stable at last week's levels.
So, it still has to make a decision, it has to give itself indications of where the price can rise. So, we know that above the previous maximum, so 6,000-7,000 if Milan is 57,000 dollars, obviously we'll have to do another forecast analysis because another cyclical phase would be possible, so completely detached from the previous one.
At the moment, however, let's stay on the previous view, then bitcoin could go to 20,000-25,000 dollars. In the meantime, let's do one thing because those of you who follow me know well that when we go to do analyses in relation to time, let's say long periods, between frames, it must also be correlated, it's therefore quite long.
So, what do we do? Let's put ourselves here on the famous weekly timeframe. In the meantime, you see that we're in that famous blue rectangle. I've been indicating for over a month that it was the arrival point of bitcoin, in short, it could actually have happened here this minimum right at the beginning of this phase or we should still make another one, we'll see after that what can happen then Tommy Lee says ok then we go back to 20,000 dollars per hour 20 thousand dollars that he marked guys and and here above the maximums so he says ok let 's go back here let's make a nice rectangle here it is it's possible that this thing happens let's also see on a timing level at the December level because he actually talks about December in 2018 so this pattern would have moved into this phase here here it is and here we would be right in December straddling December clearly it is January 2019 December 2008 in 2019 so we should see bitcoin is starting or then a zigzag phase probably built from this point that could here do this type of movement according to Tom there obviously that these are forecasts you know well how he thinks about forecasts you see that here in short the part bullish is very deep, in short heavy from one point and here to get to the highs again we will have to witness this type of mechanism let's understand what type of obstacles Ditko could encounter every now and then the positive things in fact a fairly important cyclical closure like this one which should last about 5-6 months which is lasting 5-6 months then presupposes a start in effect like a rocket and this this view of tomb there would obviously marry with cyclical analysis which predicts after the closure of a very long cycle the restart of a fairly large cycle and therefore in first news that would marry this more exactly and the cyclical closure that we are waiting for here is a cyclical closure of a larger cycle therefore a phase obviously that would then give space to a substantial rise at least culpable then it had to we don't know but it certainly should be quite important in its at least in its first part and therefore this is the first positive news the second positive instead is that this bearish phase that began on February 7, 2018 does not actually have a great slope I know that perhaps many of you think In short, the market has collapsed because the numbers actually obviously presuppose enormous differences in terms of absolute value because we have gone from 20 thousand to the current 6,700 dollars.
This is a lot, but in graphic terms, bitcoin does not have a pronounced bearish cycle if we refer clearly to the apps of the past few years because you always have to think by comparing two categories that are comparable in statistical terms, so if bitcoin in this case has risen by 1700 percent and then meta events, yes, certainly an excellent decline, it is a big decline but certainly not comparable to the previous rise.
This is also what the graph tells us, moved to a semi-logarithmic scale, as you can see, because it is flattened precisely to show us that in fact, at a percentage level, this decline has not had a great strength compared to the previous rise. It must be read in this way, so it does not mean that the market has not fallen, but it has fallen, not enormously, so even this fact that this bearish cycle, the first in years, which should end soon and has not had a great impact from a market point of view, a great impact from a market point of view.
So, a technical analysis chart on prices, making them really collapse, so to speak, to 2,000 dollars and 1,000 dollars, and so this is another positive point that could be linked to Tom II's prediction and confirm it further. And then finally, the last positive point that I would like to highlight is that in fact, in all this time from February to today, cryptocurrencies have essentially entered the market, or at least announced entries.
Don't miss the point. Many institutional investors, many large financial institutions, have wanted them, so there are news on the horizon of non-serious interventions that could actually lead to a market recovery. I am referring both to the creation of ETFs regarding bitcoin, which would be great news for the entry, for example, of land for the management of eternal portfolio positions.
So, ETFs are a great tool, a very important tool for those who are small investors, unlike futures, which are obviously fantastic but only accessible with 100,000 euros. Basically, guys, so for a while, large institutional investors, so all this news presupposes that this phase of the market is possible.
Bitcoin could actually be this one that Tom is still highlighting and is holding firm saying that he will be able to do it. Finally, let's do an analysis, but of an objective nature, so let's analyze the objective data now. You know well that beyond our ideas, so the assumptions are these that I told you, in fact they could be, but beyond everything else, then in the management of, let's say, the financial portfolio of each of us, what is needed is that it is important to look at the chart.
You should never take positions until the chart and therefore essentially of interests of the markets because we talk about the chart but then it means the price of the stock. The price of the stock has not given clear and unequivocal indications to take a trend of a racist nature from a weekly point of view, you see, and it is a weekly chart, it has an enormous impact and importance, guys, the lateral bearish trend therefore certainly does not have from this point on, it does not have a very significant slope phase, but in these lows which are all the double bottoms, triple bottoms, essentially they are reading now I tried to make them bigger, here is this, this line to make it look a little more important, here it is and and so far they are reading, so here they are reading these double bottoms.
But what happens instead from the point of view of maximums because the maximums from the initial phase of the cycle are seen by moving the trend are descending, you see, so we have descending maximums and equal minimums. This is a famous fan pattern, therefore a triangle, so when the market reverses, only above the break of this line that you see this pink line if I'm not mistaken is pink, we'll make it orange so it's more visible and you can see it much better.
So only above this level here will we be able to witness a break of this, of this banner of this figure which is a kind of triangle. You see the omitted one of the same color so maybe you can identify this figure. So either one or the other level will be bulwarks that Bitcoin will then have to attack, so either the passista phase with the racist phase.
So this discussion obviously this prediction by Tom Li has value if only 6 the market pushes above this dynamic descending trend line and then in any case above 10,000 dollars because only from a statistical, mathematical point of view, only above the previous maximum can we talk about a trend reversal.
Then Obviously it's not a point where you can take a position because maybe the market will have risen a lot, almost doubled, but surely the real confirmation will be above 10,000 dollars, so first at the first massive obstacle and this phase, this piece of prices here, the guys, which is around 8,000-9,000 dollars, is right here in the middle, there's the 50-period moving average, the descending trend line, in short, there's Robben's wrath of God of many, many obstacles and then the famous 10,11 thousand dollars which are truly a massive obstacle for VIP Coin in this phase, in fact, I have that obviously the market will not go above this level, talking about predictions like Tom's is practically useless, that's all, but today we saw that in fact Pitt Coin, after seeing this cycle, could actually start this thing, so you always have to keep an eye on it, here's a communication, an idea, an opinion.
These predictions are obviously opinions that would then have to be confirmed, but then you always have to look at the chart to see if something like this is actually possible, so It is possible from the point of view of news like the ones I told you before, so we could easily get there by December, but two obstacles are truly imposing, and they are the first one here, let's see if I can search with an ellipse, here it is, the first one here, this phase here, and then the second one immediately after, so they are practically attached, they are there, nothing prevents bitcoin from doing this type of mechanism anyway, how are we going to see it?
First, there will probably be signals on the futures that will increase in volume significantly on the increases, at the moment there are none, according to our country, the accumulation index will obviously indicate an accumulation of bitcoin whales, and at the moment this is not there yet, do you remember the famous Wells accumulation index trend and woe 1.0 trend which obviously indicates that there is a congestion bar also on the volumes of the whales, so until that part of the congestion is done, it is difficult for the market to have space in the meantime to clarify and not confuse ourselves too much with the forecasts of humble fingers, the first thing to see is obviously the overcoming of these levels which are currently very far away, there is neither an increase in volumes on the Futures an increase in positions on the wallets of the large whales and we are still in the cyclical closing phase but then Tom will be really right in front we saw this this video a bit of a forecast, a bit of technical analysis so a bit also to lighten this continuum on the chart because it doesn't make sense so Tom will be right time will tell us obviously the markets will tell us however I have indicated some points of food for thought that are really really important that can also accompany us throughout this very hot Italian summer that will perhaps take us to the end of August so to quickly summarize these points are those three that I told you are positive so the end of the cycle is the fact that there is all this news etc.
etc. that the slope of this cycle is negative is not very important in percentage terms and then however I also indicated the obstacles of bitcoin towards this start for this prediction of Tom there they are not let's say obstacles to the imposing and I also indicated what we need to look at to understand if something is changing is moving so the volumes of the large whales as always the volumes of the futures that I will publish to you constantly and if they were to obviously change because at the moment Guys, they are always the same useless things, they never change, and so if these things were to change, we will see it in the trading telegram channel.
Subscribe to the channel because, among other things, there will be a very short in- depth video on an opportunity that has arisen in the market of the decree on a token very recently, and so I would then like to share this opportunity with the telegram channel with a video dedicated only to you, but probably published within this week, hoping to have time for today.
That's all, guys, subscribe as always, share my videos. I'll say goodbye and see you on Wednesday, bye.
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