저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 장기 주식 투자가 최선이며, 단기 변동성은 기회이므로 월 정기 적립을 유지하라는 주장. 주제 1 - 장기 주식 투자: 제레미 시겔 자료(200년 수익률 차트)를 인용해 S&P500 주식이 채권·금·달러 등을 장기적으로 압도한다고 주장. 장기 관점의 주식 투자를 최선의 수익 수단으로 제시. 주제 2 - 고배당주: S&P500을 배당수익률별로 1957~2012년 분석한 결과 배당수익률이 높을수록 장기 수익률이 높다고 설명. 다만 발표 흐름상 고배당 우량주를 강조하면서도 배당수익률이 극단적으로 높은 종목은 피해야 한다는 취지로 혼재된 설명을 함. 주제 3 - 인플레이션 방어: 1년 투자 기간에서는 주식·채권 모두 인플레이션을 막지 못하지만, 30년 기간에서는 주식이 인플레이션을 방어하는 좋은 투자 수단이고 채권은 그렇지 않다고 주장. 주제 4 - 단기 변동성 활용: VIX 지수(1986~2012)를 보여주며 전쟁·테러·그리스 위기 등 공포 구간에 패닉 매도가 나오고, 숙련 투자자는 저가 매수 기회로 본다고 설명. 다만 고점·저점을 알기 어려우므로 매달 정기 적립을 권장. 주제 5 - 워런 버핏 원칙: 사업 원칙(이해 가능한 사업, 지속적 영업 이력, 대체재 없는 제품=경쟁우위), 경영 원칙(합리적 자본 배분, 투명성, 제도적 명령 저항), 재무 원칙(자기자본이익률 등 지표), 시장 원칙(적정 가치 대비 매수 여부)을 소개하며 기업 이해 없이 투자하면 안 된다고 강조. 주제 6 - 한국 시장(이보벤스파) 전망: 월봉 회귀선 기준 평균 회귀 가능성을 언급하며 현재 지수가 평균 아래라 장기 매수 기회라고 봄. 조정이 더 올 수 있는 하방 시나리오로 약 94,000포인트 회귀 가능성을 언급하고, 이보벤스파 PER이 역사적 저점 수준(약 7배)이라고 설명. 발표자는 하락이 더 이어질 수 있음을 인정하면서도 적립을 유지하라고 권고. 출연자 전망: 발표자는 이보벤스파가 현재 평균 대비 저평가 구간이며 장기적으로 회귀할 것으로 봄. 단기 방향은 추가 하락 가능성을 열어둠. 리스크: 단기 추가 조정 가능성, 평균 회귀 시점 불확실성, 저배당 대비 고배당 전략의 한계, 특정 기간 데이터에 근거한 과거 통계 의존.
다듬은 글
you all doing? Today's video isn't about stock analysis, it's about real estate funds. Today's topic will be short and sweet: what we're going to talk about right now is the stock market crash, your portfolio must be melting down, and your portfolio is also falling quite a bit, but what can you do? So, what's the best way to invest?
Should we go for fixed income? Should we leave variable income and stay in real estate funds? Should we leave fixed income? What's the best way? We'll find out today by studying a bit of this book here, " Investing in Stocks in the Long Term," and also "The Way a Man Goes," to put these two books together and get a general idea of these great guys, great investors.
What's the best way to invest in the long term? Okay, so let's get to the video. So let's start by hitting the nail on the head: number one, investing in stocks in the long term is the best way to make money. So look at this chart, the long-term creation of Emicidio showing the 200-year return on the appreciation of S&P 500 stocks, which he used here with other securities like bonds, gold, and the US dollar.
So, we see stocks overwhelmingly outperforming others in the long term, even fixed income. So, number one, investing in stocks using a long-term perspective is the best way to make money. Number two, considering high dividends, it's almost as if we know a Brazilian grandpa here who became a billionaire with his investment strategy of a retirement portfolio—investing in good dividend-paying stocks.
Could it be Luiz Bacci? Of course, this simple, incredibly kind, and charismatic guy here. So, what does this chart show us? The return on S&P 500 stocks classified by dividend yield from 1957 to 2012 showed the following: the higher the dividend paid by the company, the greater the return on its shares in the long term, and the lower the dividend paid by the company, the lower its return in the long term.
So yes, Luiz Bacci is right: good dividend- paying stocks... In the long term, dividends outperform bad dividend-paying stocks, and the best way for you to invest is to invest in stocks with lower yields. I'll show you now: the lower the yield, the higher the return, and the higher the yield, the lower the return.
This graph also shows the difference in return compared to lower yields. There are companies with yields over a thousand on the stock exchange, and you're putting your money into them. Do you think that in the long term you'll have a good return on the stocks? No way! This is statistically proven: with lower yields you can get a return.
At some point, the market looks at the lower yield and says, "This stock here is undervalued." And then the return goes into your pocket. Investing in stocks protects against inflation. Yes, protecting yourself is the best way to invest in stocks in the long term to protect against inflation. Emicidio brought this up in his book, and he presents two investment horizons of one year and 30 years, and here is the compound annual return of the stocks.
Regarding bonds and securities, and here the variation in inflation during the investment horizon, in a one-year investment, nothing protects against inflation, not even bonds. Now, thinking about a 30-year investment horizon, which we talked about with Luiz Bacci who has the retirement portfolio, the retirement portfolio, 30 years is normally the time you work to retire, so yes, stocks in the 30-year investment horizon are a great investment against inflation.
And here below we have bonds, and it's not a good investment, okay, moving on, number five, short-term volatility is the opportunity. This graph shows the OVIX volatility index from 1986 to 2012. The big peaks here are those big moments of economic turbulence, such as invasions, the invasion of Iraq, terrorist attacks, and so on, the Greek crisis.
These moments generate volatility because they generate uncertainty for investors. And then what do they do? They start selling their stocks at any price, at rock-bottom prices. Those who are more established investors, who study the financial market better, see the opportunities in this volatility and start buying stocks at rock-bottom prices.
And selling up there at a premium price, so the volatility in the short term generates a little money. If you know how to work with it, in recent years buying when you're high and selling when you're low has proven to be a profitable strategy in the short term. The same has proven true regarding buying during market dips and selling during peaks and peaks.
But the real deal is that high is high and low is low, you understand? So we don't know when the market is high and when the market is low, and that's why people talk about their contributions, like constant month after month, putting in a little bit, because doing it this way you can't risk catching a big drop after having made a large contribution.
So you keep making your monthly contributions calmly. In the long term, these short-term activities are eliminated by the huge return you will have in the long term. Okay? And now bringing this book here, "The Way a Scammer Invests" by Grandpa Obus, the greatest investor of all time, and what are his principles?
The four principles for us: business principles, management principles, financial principles, and market principles. ...and to break them down a bit, they question themselves based on this principle to see if the company has a certain competitive advantage and to see if it's worth investing in it, and what the business is.
It's simple and understandable, so to invest you have to understand the business. You don't understand the business, how are you going to study and know if the company is at a good value or not? Does the business have a consistent history of operations? Does the business have a favorable long-term outlook?
What does that mean? Is the product necessary? Is the product desired and without substitutes? This shows a competitive advantage. Management principles: Management is rational, that is, how invested capital is reinvested in the company for it to grow or returning the money to the shareholder through dividends, and its manager does this efficiently, both reinvesting and bringing dividends to the shareholder.
And management is transparent to shareholders, so transparent management builds more investor confidence. Management resists the institutional imperative, and what did the banker mean by the institutional imperative? It's the tendency of corporate managers to imitate the behaviors of other managers, however foolish and irrational they may be.
Financial principles: what about the return on equity? No, Lulu, sweetheart, this is easy for us to find on the website. For example, it was based on the fundamentals, which is what ROI is, the return on equity. I found high values for you to invest in cleaning. This is already a good indicator. Of course, you'll also look at the indicators.
Calculate the owner's profits, look for companies with high profit margins for every dollar retained, ensure that the company has created at least one dollar of market value. Principles and markets, what is the value? If you've ever wondered, for the companies you're going to invest in, the business can be bought as significant points in relation to its value.
Do you know if you 're buying your companies at a good value, or if you're paying for a car? And so, the financial success of investors is directly related to the extent to which they know their investment. This is a distinguishing trait that separates investors guided by the business from those who rush and run away, those who are constantly buying and selling.
And so I ask you now, to what extent do you know your investment? And now, this graph here is the graph of the return to average of the Ibovespa on the monthly chart. So, to help us understand that first graph I mentioned of the S&P 500 line, let's now apply it to our Ibovespa. Obviously, this is a linear regression that I've drawn, which creates a trend channel.
So, the red here is the Ibovespa's long-term average. What does regression to the mean mean? It means that from time to time, the value of stocks returns to the average, both up and down, but the tendency is for it to oscillate around this average. So, how can we analyze this graph? Look, below the average are great points to buy because you will gain returns in the long term that are well above the average, and extrapolating from its extremes, like when the 2008 subprime crisis went too far—the market was super excited, very speculative, and then it generated the big crisis—and it was up here.
It returned, the average turned low, and it went on oscillating. This point in 2016 was perhaps the best. It must have made a lot of people rich who started investing here at that time. It was very much at its extremes here at the bottom, the big valuations here before March 2020, it went overboard, there would have been a normal correction, then the pandemic crisis hit, and then it messed everyone up, and so on.
What happened now could be an explanation for this big drop that we've been seeing since July/June. This year, there's still this big correction, and we don't know where it's coming from. What are the reasons? Maybe it's very much at its extremes here, and if it returns to the average, this here, looking and analyzing, if it will return to the average, it could reach 94,000 points, oh my God, and then this correction will continue here on the monthly chart, it could continue until it comes to the 72-period moving average, which is very close to the average.
Look here, if it has good entry points, only here, but here below I brought the chart of the historical PL of Bovespa, oh my God, this dashed line here, what's happening? The PL of the Ibovespa is currently at its lower extremes. Historically, if you consider that the 2008 crisis was much worse than the current crisis, the Ibovespa is quite similar in value to the P/E ratio, around seven for seven months.
So normally, the trend here is for it to increase its average in the long term. It should have corrected to around 12, but it's down here at around seven. So, the P/E ratio is very low. The Ibovespa is returning to its average, and I think that when it returns to approximately 94.3, our portfolio will fall even further.
But anyway, what can we do? We have to study and find better entry points, and continue making our monthly contributions. And when it returns, I think with these [unclear] points, it's possible we'll have huge gains in our portfolio, gigantic appreciations in the long term, right? It's possible, but what I think is this: maintain your monthly contributions because we ca n't predict at that time.
What time will the next correction happen? So, keep doing your thing, I know that in the long run, this tends to always return to the average. So you'll grow in the same way that it's been growing since 1995, bringing returns to those investing in the stock market, investing in stocks. So, did you like the video?
Then give us a like! And are you a long-term investor, a short-term investor, do you like this volatility to earn a little money every day, or are you thinking about your retirement? Hmm, tell us then, okay? Okay, big hug, God bless you, until the next video, bye and... And then... And then... Andthen... [ Music]
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