저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 2021년 1월 게임스탑 급등과 로빈후드 매수 제한 사태는 공매도 세력과 개미 간 대결이 감마 스퀴즈로 번진 결과이며, 로빈후드가 증거금 부족으로 지급불능 위험을 피하려 매수를 막은 것이라는 주장. [사건 경과] 2019년 6월 Deep Value가 게임스탑 1월 콜옵션 매수, 2020년 8월 마이클 버리 3% 지분, 2020년 8월 말 라이언 코언 약 10% 지분 확보, 2021년 1월 이사회 합류 및 주가 상승. [숏스퀴즈 메커니즘] 공매도 잔고 120~140%로 과열, 개미의 콜옵션 매수가 증권사 헤지로 주가를 밀어올리는 감마 스퀴즈 발생. 헤지펀드 숏 청산으로 다른 주식까지 매도 연쇄. [자금 지원] 1월 25일 멜빈캐피털에 시타델 약 20억 달러, 스티브 코언 약 7.5억 달러 등 약 30억 달러 투입. [로빈후드 논란] 1월 28일 로빈후드 등 일부 증권사가 게임스탑 등의 매수만 막고 매도는 허용. 발언자는 이를 증거금 부족 및 지급불능 가능성 때문으로 추정하며 과실 또는 임의적 결정이라고 비판. 피해 규모는 수십억 달러로 추정. [이해충돌·전망] 헤지펀드들이 레딧 개미에 밀려 청산 위기였으나 매수 제한으로 시간을 벌었다고 해석. 소송과 규제 판단이 필요하다고 주장. 사회자 측 발언(로빈후드 투자 여부 등)은 제외.
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it cost individuals hundreds of millions probably billions maybe even tens of billions and these [ __ ] should go to jail just a few weeks ago everyone from joe rogan to james gordon to your nana were closely following the story of gamestop even aoc and soon to be cancun crews were on the same page getting angry was trendy and sharing a hashtag delete robinhood was so much fun until eventually as it always happens the dust settled and the eyeballs of the public are all somewhere else but now that mr deep afrin value is facing a lawsuit while the big money is playing dumb is not the time to let go and let them have their scapegoats so to remind you what is at stake i would like to share with you this clip of a famous billionaire investor chamath palihapitiya who has been one of the loudest voices in the story explaining what has actually happened in june of 2019 a wall street bets user named deep value began buying long dated january 21 calls what that means is in june of 19 this person was betting that the stock would go up by january of 2021.
he spent fifty thousand dollars um which by the way today is worth about 25 million dollars by the way we should just highlight that there are forums where individuals that are trading stocks talk to each other and share tips and promote things to one another that's where this was taking place yeah and by the way those forums exist uh in the professional organized world too amongst hedge funds you know i've been invited to idea dinners where we all get together and we talk about the ideas that we have and we're all expected to do fundamental analysis but some of those ideas are actually momentum driven ideas and a lot of the biggest dislocations in the market just as a setup here have been because of momentum driven trading by organized capital okay so we've we've been stuck with this for a while so so this guy deep in value posts this and every month since he's posted a screenshot of his position and he's titled it gme yolo update august 22 2019 michael bury who is this guy famous from uh the big short who's the guy that caught the mortgage thing he discloses a three percent position in the company and he highlights that 90 percent nine zero percent of gamestop's 5700 stores are free cash flow positive that's like pretty good he urges a buyback and he notes that the company was trading at or near net cash levels so he's making a deep value oriented fundamental thesis as well june 19 was the original post august 22nd of 19 michael bury comes in and says i'm long then a year later august 31st of 2020 ryan cohen who's the founder of chewie takes an almost 10 position in gamestop about two or three weeks later on september 19th of last year a member of wall street bets writes a post on gamestop and he notes that gamestop has a hundred and twenty percent short interest which i'll get to in a second so hold on what what does that mean 120 short interest and he defends the company as a result of a few things he says number one there's a new console cycle coming just as jason mentioned number two consoles are are not going all digital immediately gamestop loyalty programs have 55 million users they have a strong balance sheet ryan cohen just bought a stake and the shorts were underwater and would be forced to cover if the stock ran up he predicted the convergence of all these factors would lead to a big squeeze now november 16th of 2020 ryan cohen writes a letter to the gamestop board and he urges the company to conduct a strategic review and share a credible plan to capture market share in the gaming industry he said that they need to evolve into a technology company that delights gamers and delivers exceptional digital experiences i'm just quoting here not remain a video game retailer that over prioritizes its brick and mortar footprint and stumbles around the online ecosystem november of 2020 someone in wall street bets highlights that a hedge fund called melvin capital was going long gamestop puts what does that mean that they are synthetically shorting the stock by buying the right to sell it at a different price in the future okay and that they had been longed that position for more than four years so all the way going back to 2016.
fast forward to now 2021 of this year january of 2021 game stop strikes an agreement with ryan cohen and adds him to the board of directors and gives two of his affiliates his former co and and cfo of chewy also two board seats they collectively you know bring their experience in e-commerce online marketing finance and strap planning the stock goes up 13 on that day and closes at about 20 bucks a share one day later and then over the next day after that so for january 12th and 13th of 2021 there's a ton of activity around gamestop in wall street bets and now in discord and in stock twits claiming that brian cohen is going to be the savior and then by january 14th so three days later the stock closes at 40 bucks so now it's up 125 so now comes the setup the pros versus the joes from january 12 to today there has basically been a battle by institutional investors on one side shorting gamestop and retail investors on the other buying the stock and also buying the right to buy the stock or what's called call options and this is what has created this crazy nonsense we've seen so on the institutional side after you know retail drives the stock up the institutional guys are like hey wait a minute you know ryan cohen's an idiot you know this company has [ __ ] these guys they have too many you know cyclical and secular tailwinds and they become so massively short that the infrastructure that's supposed to even count all the shares can't keep up and now they are short more than the actual number of shares that actually exist so now they're 140 percent short the joes retail they start to aggressively purchase all these cobble options and on january 13th and 14th this price keeps ticking up then a bunch of quant funds and momentum hedge funds notice all this activity and they also participate on the long side and then over the past seven trading days we have traded over 100 billion dollars of stock in gamestock which is well in excess of what retail can support so here's what's crazy to realize a bunch of value-oriented non-computerized non-quantitative hedge funds short retail notices a dislocation initially fundamentally but then momentum momentum-oriented buys other hedge funds realize also buy and this is what's created this massive short squeeze on january 19th citroen research a research firm that basically tries to you know find shorts in the market announces that they were short game stop and they gave five reasons why it should go to 20 bucks the stock was at 35 50 on january 19th then over the next two days gamestop calls hit an all-time high and it runs a two-day rally of almost 70 percent and this is what really starts what's called a gamma squeeze okay which is what we saw in the first part of this week so january 25th ken griffin stevie cohen they inject almost 3 billion dollars into melvin capital the firm that was short 2 billion from citadel and 750 from from stevie cohen stevie cohen had a billion in it from before and then now all of a sudden the squeeze keeps happening the squeeze keeps happening and then it starts to spill over to the rest of the market now all these hedge funds these original hedge funds they are getting called by the bank saying hey wait a minute you've run over your collateral limits you need to post more collateral we need more money in your bank accounts so now not only do they have to cover gamestop they have to cover all their other shorts so those go crazy and they have to sell their longs so now they're selling you know facebook netflix alibaba so those things are going down that accordion is what's been happening in the market in the last couple of days and then the coup de gras is what happened on january 28th of 2021.
brokerage firms and this is where jason we should talk about this like robin hood and interactive brokers because in fairness it wasn't just robin hood prevented their users from buying gamestop and a handful of other stocks they were only able to sell which resulted in such a one-way pressure it caused a 44 sell-off yesterday now that's been reversed today and so what it speaks to is a bunch of questions there are questions as to whether or not this was mandated by the platforms or the regulators given the fact that it didn't impact all the brokerage accounts it was a platform level decision so some organizations like robinhood banned it some organizations did not and it could be that some of these platforms that banned it is likely because and this is where we get to the insolvency question didn't have enough margin and so they knew that if they opened the doors there would be a run on the bank and there would be a run on robin hood and that's why they basically i believe had to stop um allowing people to trade if we had to summarize all of this in a nutshell that's what we know we know that it started out as people debating the true fundamental value of gamestop and it morphed into a momentum trade where a bunch of folks got dogmatic about a short a bunch of folks got dogmatic about being long and belongs one and in the middle what happened was a bunch of firms basically decided at some point to gate the ability for people to transact in all of this which i think caused a lot of economic disruption and that was because they didn't have the margin requirements and i think it's because they were insolvent when you buy a call when you as a user with david friedberg quinoa buys a call robinhood becomes synthetically shorted right robinhood doesn't have the share to sell you but it's giving it to you so they're technically short they got to go buy it okay so this is what creates this dynamic where robinhood knew they knew every second of every moment what was happening and more importantly what could happen at a minimum it's negligence and at a maximum it's the fix you can't say some stocks on certain days some stocks on other days some options over here some puts over there that means you're a [ __ ] if you were a reasonable manager of a business like this this conversation would have been happening at a board meeting it needs to happen quarters ago and in quarters ago what they would have said is hey guys we've run some scenario analyses we've done some sensitivity analyses here's what happens if all of these things can go against us that's a typical stress test that a bank has to do you prevented people from transacting in an open market and when people signed up to use the service that's what they thought they were signing up for and they thought that the risk on the back end would be managed you have to remember it's not that the individuals did anything wrong by buying or selling it's that robinhood did something wrong by not being able to manage their business accurately and then that then impacted the users to the tune of tens of billions of dollars that has to get adjudicated tens of millions of people that had their hard-earned money inside of robin hood was prevented from participating in trades that could have been executed other places because of an arbitrary decision by robin hood that they edited it was an arbitrary thing to stay insolvent how is that how is that jason an arbitrary decision do you think they want to make that decision jason that's me telling you that they were insolvent that's not them saying it this is what i'm saying right now communication was not perfect i'll agree jason it's beyond poor communication people were blocked out of their accounts like there was hundreds of mill incalculable amounts of economic loss that i don't know if that's going to wind up being true because all these trades are occurring now and the stock is rock is a rocket ship who's to say that oh no the effects of that decision they made to stop trading and specifically they didn't stop people from selling they only stopped people from buying so they shut down one side of the trade and the effect of that was we had these hedge funds from wall street they were on the ropes right i mean let's discuss who these guys are these are the apex predators of wall street they are in the business of shorting companies to destroy them i mean that is their business model and they are not academic traders okay who are just speculating on outcome they engineer the outcome the beautiful thing is you had these reddit kids these pirates who published this manifesto right on reddit basically being the heirs to occupy wall street they recognize look occupying like a like a physical space does nothing to these guys we are going to hurt them where accounts in their pocketbook we are going to get together and we're going to basically create a trade mob that's even bigger than their cartel and they did they got 2.7 million people taking the other side of this trade and then when the hedge funds doubled down they said you we're gonna double we're gonna triple down and the guy on reddit said listen he uh paraphrasing john maynard kane said we can be [ __ ] longer than you can be solvent and they were winning that was what they said right and they were winning the trade okay and melvin was dead busted and citroen was on his way to being dead busted and they had to go to big papa stevie cohn okay and ken griffin to get to get their rebuys to buy their rebuys to get back into the game okay and then they had these guys on the ropes they had them felted okay and then what happens just at the moment where they're gonna like basically bust them out of the game for good robin hood shuts down the buy side of the trade and so what does that do it gives these hedge funds time to regroup to unspool the trade to reposition and save themselves and to get out of the trade if they want to get out of the trade you can never take that 24 hour time period back no matter what robinhood does now the multiple conflicts of interest exposed by the story is just mind-boggling i believe we should all pay closer attention to how the story develops further and see if lady justice turns out to be just a [ __ ] i also encourage you to go and watch or listen to the full heated debate on this episode of all in podcast and see if you will be able to tell which one of the hosts has invested in robinhood
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