저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
Lynch는 시장 하락은 역사적으로 반복되므로(93년간 10% 이상 조정 약 50회, 25% 이상 약택 15회) 대비해야 하며, 하락은 좋은 기업을 싸게 살 기회라고 주장한다. 기업을 이해하고 부채 없는 기업이라면 하락 시 매수가 유효하다는 사례(Kaiser Industries, Taco Bell)를 든다. 기업 이익은 연 약 8% 성장하므로 주가도 약 9년마다 두 배가 될 것이라고 본다. 변동성 자체는 기회라고 강조한다. 주식은 장기 투자 관점으로 접근해야 한다고 결론짓는다.
다듬은 글
today we are learning from one of the greatest investors in history Peter Lynch was a legendary mutual fund manager of Fidelity mellin Fund he achieved a 29% annual return absolutely crushing the stock market over 13 consecutive years during that period he managed to grow the fund size from $18 million to $14 billion afterwards he retired early at 46 years old and now Mr Lynch is sharing with us how to make millions during a stock market crash a very important thing to know in today's economic conditions you should study history and history is the important thing you learn from what you learn from history is the market goes down it goes down a lot the math is simple there's been 93 years of century this is easy to do the Market's had 50 declines of 10% or more so 50 declines in 93 years but once every 2 years the market Falls 10% we call that a correction that means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years the market Falls 10% of those 50 declines 15 have been 25% or more that's known as a bare market we've had 15 declines in 93 years so every 6 years the Market's going to have a 25% decline that's all you need to know you need to know the Market's going to go down sometime if you're not ready for that you shouldn't own stocks and it's good when it happens if you like a stock at 14 it goes to six that's great you understand the company you look at the balance sheet and they're doing fine you're hoping to get to 22 with it 14 to 22 is terrific 6 to 22 is exceptional so you take advantage of these declines they're going to happen no one knows when they're going to happen it would be very people tell you about it after the fact that they predicted it but they predicted it 53 times and uh so you can take advantage of the in the market if you understand what you own one of the things I find a rule I a couple rules I want to throw I find useful excuse me is a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much how you know how much further can it go down I remember when Polaroid went from 130 to 100 people said here's this great company great record if it ever gets below 100 you know just buy every share you know and it did get below 100 a lot of people bought on that basis saying look it's going $1 135 100 it's now 95 what a buy within a year it was 18 and this a company with no debt I mean this a it was just so overpriced it went down uh I did the same thing in my uh I think my first or second year of fidelity Kaiser Industries had gone from $26 this year to 16 I said how much lower can it go it's 16 so I think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever on the New York on the American Stock Exchange of Kaiser Industries at 14 I say you know it's prob from 26 to 16 how much low can to go well at 10 I called my mother and said Mom you get to look at the sker industries I mean how much lower can it go it's gone from 26 to 10 well it went to six it went to five it went to four it went to three and uh now I unfortunately this happened rapidly I would probably be still caddying or being working at the stoping shop but I it happened fast I was able to this was compressed U and at three I figured out you know there's something very wrong here because Kaiser Industries owns 40% of Kaiser steel they own 40% of Kaiser Aluminum they own 32% of Kaiser cement they own of broadcasting they own kais of sant gravel kais of Engineers they own Jeep they own business after business and they had no debt now I learned this very early this is might be a breakthrough for some people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt it's It's Tricky some people can approach that it's a it's a real achievement but they had no debt and the whole company at three was selling it about 75 million in that point it was equal to buying one boing 747 I said there's something wrong with this company selling for 75 million I was a little premature at 16 but uh I said everything's fine and eventually this will work out and they what they did is they gave away all their shares to their shareholders they they passed out shares in kais men they passed out shares in kais aluminum they passed out the public shares in Kaiser steel they sold all the other businesses and you get about $50 a share and but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact the stock had gone from 26 to 16 and then it g to 10 what would you do when went to nine what would you do when went to eight what would you do when went to seven this is the problem that people have is a sell socks because they didn't know why they bought it then it went down and they don't know what to do now do you flip a coin do you walk around the block you know what do you do are you concerned about the volatility in the U financial markets today do you think something needs to be done okay to reduce it I I I love volatility I I think I remember when uh 1972 the market went from uh uh down dramatically and Taco Bell went from 14 to they had no debt they never had a restaurant Clos and uh I started buying at seven but I kept on to it and it went to one and uh it was the largest position in mellan in 1978 when it was bought out by $42 by pepsicola and I think it would have gone to 400 if they buy it out I think volatility is terrific I think it is very I think these callers are very important I don't think the market going up 80 points one day and down 80 the next uh is a good thing for the public I think that's not a very good thing but I think all these cers and all these other things to keep the volatility down each day is important but the Market's going to go up and down of the human nature hasn't changed a lot in 25,000 years and some event will come out of left field and U the market will go down or the market will go up so I volatility will occur markets will continue to have these ups and downs I think that's a great opportunity if people can understand what they own if they don't understand what they own they can own mutual funds trying to figure out mutual funds they own and keep adding to it over basically corporate profits have grown about 8% a year historically so corporate profits double about every 9 years the stock market ought to double about every 9 years so I think the next Market's about 3,800 today 3700 I'm pretty convinced the next 3,800 points will be up it won't be down the next 500 points the next 600 points I don't know which way they're going so the market ought to double in the next8 or nine years it ought to double again in the8 or nine years after that because profits will go up 8% a year and and stocks will fall that's all there is to it October's always been a special month I remember in 1987 I was very uh you know I was very convinced the market was in no was not not in trouble and I didn't worry about things and Carol and I had planned this great golf vacation to Ireland we're going to visit one course and say a little house and visit another go all along the west coast of Ireland play golf and we left on a Thursday night and uh the market went down 55 points that day which was not too good and uh the next day we got to Ireland because of the time difference we completed our day and I get back to the hotel and I called in the market had gone down 112 on Friday I said to Carolyn uh you know I think if the if the market goes down on Monday uh you know we're going to have to go back and uh and so we might we stayed there for the weekend and uh and on Monday the market went down 58 points and my fund went from uh I think 12 billion to 8 billion and uh that gets your attention you know in a two two working days you know I said by the end of this week I'd be uh have no fund now there wasn't a lot I could do I mean here I was on Monday because the market didn't open you know by 12:00 it was in Ireland it was still uh 7:00 in New York so we did spend that day and we uh we did we played around golf the morning and then we went somewhere and sort of watched the market uh deteriorate and uh and uh I did come back there wasn't nothing I could do I mean just nothing I do about it it uh but I think my shareholders they called up and they said what's Lynch doing they said well he's on the sixth hole and he's uh you know he's even pared now but he's in a trap this could be you know this could be a triple bogey here this could be a could be a beginning and uh I don't I don't think that's exactly what they want to hear so I could do something about this damn thing so I came back home and suffar with everybody else and and uh fortunately uh I was very consistent uh my uh the market went down when I ran mellin 13 years the market went down nine times and every time the market went down Mell went down it was nine for nine and uh you know because it's it's very it's very important there another one of these numbers you got to write down if you put $1,000 in a stock all you can lose is a th000 I've done that several times and uh but if you're right you can make 5,000 10,000 20,000 so this business you don't have to be right one out of two times you can be right one out of four as long time the times you're right you know the company's doing well you know they're doing a great job and you add to it or at least you don't sell it which is terrible tragedy so you can make more money on the upside so I just I just row those out and I'll will now flip a coin to tell you where the market will go to 4,000 this year or next year heads means it goes up is a two-headed coin uh the market will go up in the next year that's that's all I ever know about the stock market you'll be very pleased in 10 20 30 years stocks will beat the hell out of money markets they can beat the hell out of bonds this is important whether you're investing for a four-year-old a 14-year-old or a 74y old you have to say what am I going to do when the market goes down because I've had audiences like this larger audiences and I'll say how many people in the room are short-term investors I've never had anybody ever raise their hand I mean everybody in the world is a long-term investor until the market goes down
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