저자: UNIVERSITY OF MOTIVATION · 외국인
다듬은 글
i think the public can do extremely well in the stock market on their own i think the fact that institutions dominate the market today is a positive for small investors these institutions push stocks unusual lows they're pushing unusual highs for someone that can sit back and have their own opinion the single single most important thing to me in stock market for anyone is to know what you own i'm amazed how many people own stocks they would not be able to tell you why they own it they couldn't say in a minute or less why they don't actually you really press them down to say the reason i own this is the suckers going up and that's the only reason that's the only reason they own it and if you can't explain i'm serious you can't explain to a 10 year old in two minutes or less why you own a stock you shouldn't own it and that's true i think about 80 percent of people that own stocks and this is the kind of stock people like to own i'm trying to convince people there's a method there are reasons for stocks that go up coca-cola this is very magic it's a very magic number easy to remember coca-cola is earning 30 times per share what they did 32 years ago the stock has gone up 30-fold bethlehem steel is earning less than they did 30 years ago the stock is half its price of 30 years ago stocks are not lottery tickets there's a company behind every stock the company does well with stock as well it's not that complicated people get too carried away and first of all they try and predict the stock market that is a total waste of time no one picks up they try to predict the interest rates this is it if any of our critic interest rates right three times in a row they'd be a billionaire certainly there's not that many billionaires on the planet it's very you know i took i had logics i had a syllogism and uh i studied these when i was in boston college they can't be that many people who can pick interest rates because there'd be lots of billions and no one could predict the economy i had a lot of people this room were around in 1981 and 82 and we had a 20 prime rate double-digit inflation double-d digit unemployment i don't remember anybody telling me in 1981 about it i didn't read i studied also i remember every time we got the worst recession since the depression so what i'm trying to tell you it would be very useful to know what the stock market is going to do it'd be terrific to know that the dow jones average year for now would be x we're going to have a full scale recession our interest rate's gonna be 12 that's useful stuff you never know it though you just don't get to learn it so i've always said if you spend 14 minutes a year on economics you've wasted 12 minutes and i i really believe that now i have to be i'd be fair i'm talking about economics on the broad scale predicting the downturn for next year the upturn or m1 and m23b and all these all these m's the uh i'm talking about economics to me is when you talk about scrap prices when i own a lot of stocks i want to know what's happening used car prices used car prices going up that's a very good indicator when i own hotel stocks hotel accuracies you know chemical stocks so i know what's happening the price of ethanol these are facts the lumen inventories go down five straight months that's relevant i can deal with that home affordability i want to know about my own uh fannie mae my own housing stuff these are facts you get they're equal artifacts in these economic predictions and economic predictions are a total waste and uh interest rates alan greenspan is a very honest guy he will tell you that he can't break interest rates he can tell you what short rates are going to be the next six months try and stick them on what the long-term rate will be three years now they'll say i don't have any idea so how are you the investor supposed to repeat these rates to have the federal reserve campaign so i think that's uh but you should study history and history is the important thing you learn from what you learn from history is the market goes down it goes down a lot the math is simple there's been 93 years of center this is easy to do the markets had 50 declines of 10 or more so 50 declines in 93 years but once every two years the market falls 10 we call that a correction that means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly we call it a correction and uh uh so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years the market falls 10 all those 50 declines 15 have been 25 or more that's known as a bear market we've had 15 declines in 93 years so every six years the market's gonna have a 25 percent decline that's all you need to know you need to know the market's gonna go down something if you're not ready for that you should know it stops and it's good when it happens if you like a sock at 14 it goes to six that's great you understand the company you look at the balance sheet they're doing fine you're hoping to get to 22 with it 14 to 22 is terrific 6 to 22 is exceptional so you take advantages they're going to happen no one knows when they're going to happen would be very people tell you about it after the fact that they predicted it but they predicted it 53 times and uh so you can take advantage of the volatility market if you understand what you own so i think that's the key to element another key element is that you have plenty of time people are an unbelievable rush to buy a stock i'll give an example of a well-known company walmart went public in october of 1907 1970 went public already had a great record and had 15 years performance great balance sheet you could wait 10 years saying you're a very conservative you're not sure this walmart can make it you want to check if you see them operating small towns you're afraid they can only make them in seven or eight states you want to wait for they go to more states you keep waiting you can about walmart 10 years after they went public they made 35 times your money you bought it when they went public you would make 500 times money but you've been waited 10 years after walmart in public made uh 30 or over 30 times a month you could wait three years after microsoft went public made times now if you knew something about software i know nothing about software if you decided software you would said these guys have it i don't care who's gonna win compact ibm i don't know who's gonna win japanese computers i know microsoft ms-dos is the right thing you can buy microsoft again i'm repeating myself stocks are not a lottery team there's a company behind every stock you can just watch it you have plenty of time people are in an amazing rush to purchase security they're out of breath when they call up you don't need to do this it's uh the uh you need an edge to make money too people have incredible edges and they throw them away i'll give you a quick example of smith klein this is a stock that had tagged him you didn't have to buy smith klein when tagman was doing clinical trials you didn't have to buy smith flying with tag met just talked about in the new england journal of medicine or the british version lancet you could have bought smith flying when tagmet first came out a year after came out let's say your spouse your mother your father you're a nurse you're a druggist you're writing all these prescriptions tagamet was doing an amazing job of curing ulcers it was a wonderful pill for the company because we just stopped taking it he also came back it wasn't with my crummy product that we took it for a buck and it went away but it was a great product for the company but you could have bought it two years after the product was on the market he made five or six times a month i mean all the drugs all the nurses all the people millions of people saw this product and they're all buying oil companies you know we're drilling them so it happens and then three years later or four years later galaxy even a bigger company's a huge company british company brought zantac which was a better at that time an improved product you could have seen that take market share do well goodbye blacks on tripling so you only need a few stocks in your lifetime they're in your industry you
Comments 0