저자: ShankarNath · 외국인
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결론: 피터 린치의 투자 전략을 인도 소형주에 적용해 스크리닝하면 유망 기업을 고를 수 있다는 소개 영상. 린치 전략 개요: 이야기 중심 투자, 포트폴리오 구성·지속 점검, 종목 선정 기준 8가지로 구성된다고 설명. 종목 선정 기준: 시총 500~15,000크로어 소형주, PER이 자체 5년 평균 및 업종 평균보다 낮을 것, 순이익 5년 CAGR 15% 이상, PEG(배당조정 Peggy) 0.75 이하, 부채비율 25% 이하(금융·장치산업 예외), 기관 보유 20% 미만 등. 스크리닝 결과: 약 1,040개 → 최종 32개 기업으로 축소. 이 32개 종목은 3년 CAGR 46%, 5년 CAGR 약 20%를 기록했다고 주장. 린치식 접근의 한계: 기업 분석과 장기 보유 의지가 중요하다고 강조하며 스크리너만으로는 부족하다고 함. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
it's often said imitation is the sincerest form of flattery which is probably why many investors try to model their portfolios around what a warrant Buffet rake junjanwala or monish babri are investing in in fact Mr pabri openly admits to be a Buffett cloner and confesses to have copied many parts of his investing framework and partnership structure in fact a study was conducted in 2008 where Berkshire Hathaway's entire Equity Holdings was cloned over a 31-year period the compiled data shows that if an investor had simply mimicked this portfolio then he or she would have beaten The Benchmark in most years and would have exceeded the S P 500 by 11 on an average and 11 percent Alpha is something to die for and Buffett did that over 30 years which somewhat proves the adage Shameless cloning works but it works best when you clone the best and so in this video we shall direct our attention to one of the world's most weird money managers as I Look to replicate what Peter Lynch has done so efficiently and profitably for many years my research will focus on the Indian stock market as we look to extract a list of domestic stocks on the basis of Peter's way of investing I think you like this video so let's begin Peter Lynn's investing strategy is detailed in these two books one upon Wall Street and beating the street now I've read these books a few times and I think his investment approach can be broken into three simple Parts one a compelling story two how should one build a portfolio and Third how to select the ideal stocks let's start with point one and Peter Lynch is someone whom we can call a story investor a story from a company's standpoint revolves around two things one what is the company going to do in the future and number two what is going to happen as a result of it now if the story is good that is the company has high growth expectations and qualifies for a potential petal in stock of course getting the story right is no easy task can investors have to be familiar with the company the industry strengths the competition the valuation Etc a lot like how we analyzed the life insurance industry in a previous video and if you haven't subscribed to our Channel yet then kindly do so because a is free and B you don't want to miss out on more videos like the ones we've already posted like identifying coffee can stocks finding cash Rich companies at attractive valuations and a simple small cap strategy that can potentially jump up your returns by 16 or more but stories can be deceptive and to have a better understanding Peter Lynch categorizes them into six major storylines so there are slow growing companies the large but growing stalwarts fast aggressively growing companies which are amongst his favorites and then there were the more tactically oriented cyclicals The Comeback Kings or turnarounds and of course asset plays which completed the entire story metaphorically speaking the second pillar of Peter Lynch's investment strategy is around portfolio building and its monitoring while Peter Lynch was not a Buy and Hold person he did strongly Advocate a long-term commitment to the stock markets which means his strategy actually borders more on practicality and is pretty okay with investors rotating companies depending on market conditions in fact Peter Lynch encourages investors to pick stocks across different sectors and to also review Once Holdings every few months to verify if the company's story is still intact or there has been any dramatic changes in the investment thesis the third and final pillar of Peter Lynch's investment approach is his stock selection criteria and thanks to these two books I found eight areas that need to be factored when searching for fast growing companies the first is market capitalization and Peter Lynch has a preference for small cap companies because of their longer growth runway in fact he used to say this and I quote big companies have small moves and small companies have big moves now Mr Lynch doesn't Define in his book what's the minimum or maximum size of a small company but from an Indian context let's assume this would be between 500 and 15 000 crores which should give us about 1 000 small cap companies to work with the second selection criteria is the price earning multiple or the p ratio now an important metric like this cannot be looked at in isolation which is why Peter Lynch prefers to study it over several years along with its industry average to see if the company is indeed a bucket and therefore we'll be applying two filters in our stock selection criteria the first one requiring the current p ratio to be lower than the company's own five-year average p ratio and the second filter is to have the company's current p ratio to be lower than the industry p ratio the third criteria is earnings growth and there is some confusion here with many articles preferring growth in net profits and others leaning towards growth in earnings per share but irrespective Peter Lynch prefers companies that are growing their earnings at a rate of 15 to 25 percent and that's what we'll do in our selection criteria as we seek out companies with a five-year net profit cagr of at least 15 percent so I've been working the numbers and after applying the market cap filter it gives me a sufficiently large Universe of 1040 companies once I apply the two p ratio filters that is the industry p and the historical five-year average PE this universe shrinks down even further to 234 companies and the 15 earnings rule gets us down to just 123 companies now many investors like to add or subtract filters on top of the ones that we have already discussed for example if I were to add a return on Capital employed filter of 15 then my list of companies will shrink even further from 123 to 86 companies but before doing anything of this sort let's go back to the remaining stock selection criteria the fourth selection criteria and an important one is the pe2 earnings growth ratio which is otherwise known as the PEG ratio to understand this let's look at three companies from three different Industries Infosys limited ultratech cement and Hindustan Unilever now Infosys is currently at a price earning ratio of 28.6 and averages an earnings growth of about 10 percent so 28.6 divided by 10 gives us a PEG ratio of almost 2.9 similarly Ultra Tech and hul have a PEG ratio of 2.5 and 4.7 respectively so two things here firstly while a comparison of P ratios between these three companies would have made no sense as they are from different Industries the pack ratio was able to bring them together on a uniform measurement scale and secondly a number like 2.9 2.5 4.7 is something Peter Lynch would not have approved of as a part of his own stock selection screener in fact in his book he says and I quote the p ratio of any company that's fairly priced will be equal to its growth rate which is another way of saying that companies which are at a peck ratio of less than one are generally undervalued in fact Peter Lynch employs a slightly modified version of the PEC ratio which is a dividend adjusted PEG ratio or Peggy for short and as was the case with the PEG ratio companies with a Peggy of less than one are flagged as undervalued so in a screener I have taken a slightly conservative Peggy of 0.75 which brings the potential list of companies from 125 to 102.
now a hundred odd companies is a good list to work with and I think it is at this stage that an investor should come off the screening process and start analyzing every company for its strengths financials market share business risk competition Etc all right so point five is about having a strong balance sheet and Peter Lynch is particularly referring to the amount of debt in the company's books this is where a debt ratio of less than 25 percent is recommended but this need not be a firm rule for example this 25 rule need not be applied in financial companies like Banks and nbfcs and also in capital intensive Industries like power transport Steel Etc where companies anyways carry a lot of debt the sixth criteria is institutional ownership and Peter Lynch has a preference for companies where this number is bit on the low side so as a filter we are looking for companies where the combined percentage of domestic and foreign institutional holding is less than 20 percent and finally the seventh and eighth criteria is based on Peter Lynch's experience where he lists out the kind of businesses that he prefers and generally avoids but remember he said that in the 1970s 80s and 90s so some of these points might sound a little odd in 2022 but here we go in terms of favorable characteristics Lynch preferred companies with a boring name companies that are operating in boarding industry idly a spin-off because these receive little attention Niche companies that control large parts of the market companies whose products are always in demand and if there is any Insider buying that's happening with the stock similarly some characteristics Lynch doesn't find favor with include going after hot stocks in hot Industries companies with big unproven plans profitable companies who are diversifying via Acquisitions which he also calls diversification and where One customer accounts for 25 to 50 percent of sales Etc so these eight strategies form the basis of Peter Lynch's stock selection and if done well then these can form the basis of your small cap multibagger strategy all right now let's apply what we have learned so far in a stock screener so I am using screener talked in here and this is the closest I could get to Peter Lynch's stock selection formula I've Incorporated six of the eight filters leaving aside only 0.7 and 8 which were more preference based and a bit subjective this gives us a grand total of 32 companies which is way tooer than the 1000 plus companies we had when we first started by filtering the small cap companies now outside of the market cap e ratio Etc which are anyways a part of the selection criteria I found a number of interesting characteristics for instance the median EV to ebitda which is a valuation metric I dearly follow was a mouth-watering 5.1 likewise 32 companies had a median five-year sales growth of 12.5 percent and operating margin of 17.2 percent Etc in fact I was a little surprised and I'm still in a bit of shock when I figured that the small portfolio of 32 stocks had delivered a three-year cagr of 46 percent and a five-year cagr almost 20 percent so there seems to be strength in this process and for your benefit I have attached the screener Link in the video's description for you to double with it I also came across a screener on equitymaster.com and a few articles on economic Times those links have also been attached in the video's description so to sum it up Peter Lynch offers a practical approach to investing that can be adapted by different investors to suit their needs what we have discussed today is suitable for investors who prefer fast growing companies that are available at reasonable valuations but I don't want a screener to de-emphasize perhaps the most important point of his strategy which involves considerable Hands-On research focused fundamental analysis multiple and regular iterations and is long-term commitment to the stock market I sincerely hope you will use this presentation to improve your own investing strategy and if you have any questions please type them in the comment section once again thank you for your time do like this video do subscribe to my channel and I'll see you next week until then foreign
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