저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
ARK Invest의 Monte Carlo 모델을 인용해 2029년 테슬라 주가 600달러(영상 내 2,600달러 표기는 자막 오인식 가능성) 전망을 소개하고, 로보택시 사업이 핵심 근거라고 주장. 자율주행 소프트웨어가 인간 운전보다 안전하다는 ARK 연구와 중국 협상, 30일 무료 FSD 제공 등을 근거로 제시. 발표자는 다음 실적발표에서 로보택시 일정 확인 시 강세 관점을 신뢰한다고 언급하나, 실제로는 약세 시나리오(2,000달러 이하)에 베팅하겠다는 자막 내용도 포함.
다듬은 글
$600 per share in 2029—that's what the investment fund Arc Invest recently published it believes Tesla shares will be worth in the next 5 years. As of the date of this video recording, Tesla shares are worth around $250, so that $2,600 represents a more than 10-fold increase in just 5 years. It's worth noting that Tesla's all-time high is around $400, a figure that falls far short of $2,600.
However, according to the investment fund Arc Invest, this figure is entirely achievable. And who is Arc Invest? Arc Invest is an investment fund created and led by CatFood, an investment fund manager that gained international recognition thanks to its significant investment in Tesla between 2016 and 2017 when the stock was trading at around $1 per share.
Since then, Tesla shares have multiplied almost 17 times. So this fund manager probably knows Tesla better than most Wall Street analysts. By the way, I've included a link above on the right to a video I uploaded very recently showing the 10 stocks this investor has the most confidence in for the coming years, all with the potential to multiply tenfold or more.
Getting back to the topic at hand, in this video, Ark Invest has presented a valuation model estimating that Tesla shares could reach $600 by 2029. This figure was reached through a Monte Carlo analysis, which is simply a simulation used to model the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot be easily predicted due to the intervention of random variables.
In other words, the analysts at Ark Invest entered many variables as input data, and this data generated random scenarios to create different futures in which Tesla shares would move within certain price ranges. But Ark Invest hasn't just told us that Tesla could reach a value of $2,600, but they've gone even further, showing us a pessimistic scenario where Tesla shares could be worth $2,000 or less with a 25% probability.
On the other hand, we also have an optimistic scenario where Tesla shares could be worth $31,100 or more, also with a 25% probability. Look, between you and me, if Tesla shares reach $ 2,000 in 2029, I'd sign up for the pessimistic scenario right now. As I mentioned, the share prices for the neutral, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios come from a Monte Carlo analysis in which they introduced a total of 45 variables, which they randomly modified until they obtained scenarios where Tesla shares would move between $350 and $500 in 2029.
Note that the most negative scenario is the one in which Tesla fails to develop autonomous driving software to a level where a car can... Driving without human intervention, and yet we have a potential 40% revaluation in 5 years, which is good, less of a problem. However, in my opinion, Tesla will achieve this milestone.
I don't know when it will be, but they will eventually achieve it, and the analysts at Ark Invest think exactly the same. In fact, they say that it's most likely that robotaxis will exist within 2 years at the most, and they practically don't consider the possibility that this new business won't develop in the next 5 years.
As you can see in this image, 58% of the simulations assume that the launch of robotaxis will be in 2020, 38 % assume it will be in 2026, only 4% in 2027, and practically negligible in the remaining years. This idea that the robotaxis business will exist in the future isn't something to be done on faith; neither I nor Ark Invest pulled it out of thin air, but rather there is a lot of data that increasingly supports it.
The justification for this business being entirely viable is that Tesla already has the vehicle it will use for the robotaxis network ready and plans to show it to the world next August. However, be aware that, as I mentioned in my last video (which, by the way, if you haven't seen it, I'll link to it above on the right), this presentation of the robot taxi prototype could be postponed until October.
Although Tesla hasn't confirmed this yet, on the other hand, Tesla has begun talks with very important companies in China to enable the autonomous driving software in that country—a very important fact, since approximately 30% of Tesla's sales are in China. We also shouldn't forget that Tesla has already shown us some screenshots of the application they are developing to manage the entire robotaxis system, an application similar to Uber's.
And, most importantly in my opinion, Tesla has given away 30 days of autonomous driving software to all Tesla vehicles in North America and Canada, something like 40% of the total Tesla fleet. Do you think that if Tesla or If they weren't completely sure that the Autonomous Driving software works practically perfectly, they would give a free version to practically every driver who owns a Tesla vehicle.
Imagine the negative news there would be if the software started malfunctioning and cars started crashing into each other; it would be a reputational disaster. And well, apart from two or three negative news stories, I honestly haven't seen anything out of the ordinary. Thanks to this deployment of Autonomous Driving software in a lot of Tesla cars, Tesla is accumulating much more data than its competition and therefore has a huge advantage that is constantly growing in the race for full autonomous driving.
And as I already mentioned, the Autonomous Driving software drives in a very safe way. According to the Ark Invest study, Autonomous Driving software is five times safer than a Tesla driven by a person and up to 16 times safer than the average car on our roads. This graph shows the number of miles each vehicle travels before having an accident.
A Tesla driven by a person... Autonomous driving software has an accident every 3 million miles traveled, roughly 5 million km. While other autonomous driving companies like Guimo or Cruz have accidents much sooner, it's worth noting that Guimo already performs better than the average driver in the United States.
This means that not only does Tesla's autonomous driving software drive better than the average human, but there's also another company that has created software that drives better than humans. In other words, the robotaxi business is entirely feasible in the future. Let's now look at the details of revenue, margins, income, and all the other metrics that AR Invest provides to reach that $2,600 per share target in 2029.
But first, it's important to emphasize that this investment fund has left out a lot of Tesla's business lines from its analysis, some of which could be super important in the future, such as the humanoid robot. Keep in mind that this does n't mean they don't believe in this project; in fact, AR Invest thinks that in the future Tesla will become a leading company in the manufacture of...
robots and the provision of related services, and also how they won't have them working in their factories, saving costs of between 3 and 4 trillion dollars by 2029. But they also think that this entire business, which they estimate at 24 trillion dollars a year, won't develop in the next 5 years. As is normal, we'll go little by little; first autonomous driving, and then we'll get into humanoid robots.
They also haven't taken into account the profits from the Seven Truck, which they think won't be very high in the next 5 years. They also exclude the supercharger network, which they think will be reoriented to prioritize charging robotaxis, and therefore the revenue generation will be practically nil compared to that of robotaxis.
They also don't consider licensing the autonomous driving software to other manufacturers, even though they are already in talks with some of them, basically because they don't believe that in the next 5 years these manufacturers will be able to develop the necessary hardware at scale for Tesla's software to work correctly.
And they also don't take into account what they call Artificial intelligence as a service is basically something along the lines of Amazon Web Services or Google Cloud, which they do n't believe will be very relevant in the next 5 years. To give you an idea, Arch Invest has only considered these five Tesla businesses: electric vehicle sales, robotaxis, human-driven taxis ( a business like Uber), car insurance sales, and energy storage products in 2029.
According to Arch Invest, Tesla could generate $1.2 trillion in revenue, distributed as follows: 63% from the robotaxis business, 26% from electric vehicle sales, 10% from energy storage products, and only a residual 1% from car insurance sales. But when it comes to converting this revenue into profit, the picture changes considerably.
Of the $440 billion in gross daily revenue (GDR), 86% is due to the robotaxis business, as it is expected to have huge profit margins. And, as expected, the robotaxis business would account for a significant portion of the total. 88% in Tesla's market capitalization means that if robotaxis don't start in the United States in the next two to three years, this valuation makes no sense.
One thing I want to clarify is this 2% weighting of the energy sector, which may be quite surprising because it's currently growing much faster than electric vehicle sales and looks like it will continue to do so in the future. But AR Invest thinks that for the robotaxis business to work, Tesla will need to manufacture a lot of electric vehicles and therefore will need to allocate a lot of batteries to these vehicles.
Therefore, the energy sector will have to prioritize supplying batteries to these vehicles and not to other Tesla projects, such as Megapacks. In this table, AR Invest shows us an example of how to interpret all the scenarios in its valuation model. I invite you to pause the video to compare the bearish and bullish scenarios where Tesla shares would be worth between 2,000 and 3,100 respectively, which, as you know, As I said before, I'd confidently take the bearish position in Tesla's upcoming earnings presentation, which is just around the corner.
It's expected that they'll reveal a great deal more information about their robotaxi business, and also confirm or deny whether we'll actually see this robotaxi event in August or October. So, if you don't want to miss any details of this earnings presentation, all you have to do is subscribe to this channel, which is completely free, and that way you won't miss any of my videos and you'll be up-to-date on all the Tesla news.
I hope you enjoyed this video, and as always, I'll see you in the next one. Bye!
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