Dan Ives Says He Was Dead Wrong About Tesla | Annual Production Capacity | Next Generation Platform

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Tesla 4분기 실적 콜에서 2024 생산 가이던스 부재와 가격 인하 우려로 주가가 하락했으나, 장기 보유 관점에서 Tesla는 매력적이라는 주장. 자동차 총마진(규제크레딧 제외) 17.2%는 Gary Black 예상(16.1%)을 상회해 마진 바닥 신호로 해석. 단기 주가는 금리의 콜옵션 성격, 장기는 미래 옵션(FSD, Optimus) 가치에 달려 있다고 설명. 2024 차량 성장률은 30% 미만 예상, 2.35M 생산능력 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. a top Wall Street analyst Dan I says we were Dev wrong expecting musk and the team to step up like adults in the room and give a strategic and financial overview of the ongoing price Cuts margin structure and fluctuating demand instead we got a high level view with another train wreck conference call for the street cutting the price Target to $315 from $350 how does Tesla dare to think long term I am back with my whole stock portfolio in Tesla's stock that today is a huge buying opportunity if one is willing to hold Tesla stock for 5 to 10 years and look Gary black criticizes Tesla a lot and he cares so much about the short term He does care about longterm too but I think he does care more about short-term and medium term and look what he's saying Q4 results were better than expected but Management's decision to not provide 2024 production guidance and uncertainty about Tesla's 2024 pricing philosophy and tax rate will likely cause further weakness which happened and check out this post from yesterday according to Gary Black Automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits is the most important metric we should be watching in Tesla's earnings Troy estimated 15.7% Gary Black 16.1% Wall Street 16.7% the actual number was 17.2 % and Gary says that this is a sign that gross margins have bottomed but he LS negative comments about high interest rates and car payments being too high will cause more pricing uncertainty so potentially more price Cuts Elon suggested that the Next Generation vehicle will enter production in late 2025 in Austin and he indicated that Optimus bought first deliveries could also begin in 2025 but generally this is the reaction from most people guys let me be clear zero Optimus shment next year the way I think about Optimus is Tesla is an extremely Innovative company especially if Elon stays at Tesla for a long time there will be products in the future that Tesla uh will work on that right now we have no idea about some of them will fail some of them will succeed widely Optimus could be one of those that succeeds and I think Kevin here nailed it in the near-term Tesla stock is merely a call option on interest rates meaning if interest rates go up Tesla stock down if interest rates go down Tesla stock up in the long-term Tesla stock is a call option on the future and if you are optimistic about the future why wouldn't you be optimistic about Tesla then Dojo could be another one of those things now I don't really put dojo in my Tesla valuation model I think there's a chance that it will succeed in a big way but Elon did admit on the earnings call that it's a lot long shot but keep in mind Elon says the odds of success are low for many of his ambitious Ventures but they eventually succeed anyway Tesla was one of them and I stayed away from Tesla until early 2019 because I agreed with Elon I did not really uh well the main thing for me is my risk tolerance is not exactly very high and if I don't see the company making profits if I think that there's a very good chance of the company going bankrupt or not even a a great chance but let's say a 10% chance the company is going to go bankrupt do I want to be all in in that company probably not but if I think that there's less than 1% chance that 10 years from now I will lose money owning a stock but at the same time having very high ODS at the stock doubling tripling quadrupling fxing Elon thinks that there's a good chance that Tesla will be the world's biggest company which would make it bigger than Apple which would make Tesla stock more than 5x and I don't think that the biggest company will stay just at $3 trillion in terms of the market cap so that naturally implies a lot more than just the stock going up five times and if Tesla really figures out full Cale driving and on top of that if Tesla figures out Optimus V Sheila musk seems to really believe in if these two things happen it would be hard to imagine how the stock would not more than 10x so my logic goes okay I hold the stock for 10 years less than 1% chance of me ending up with less money but there's so much opportunity and I'm betting on the world's smartest most talented engineer with an incredible track record of doing the impossible over and over and over and over again now I personally think that one of the best things that can ever happened to a man is to be deeply in love with a woman and almost every such man will be familiar with astrology so let's talk stock astrology this is a moving average and generally speaking every time Tesla stock drops below that moving average it has turned out to be a great idea to buy it especially if it drops about 30% below that moving average and currently 30% below the moving average would be 15 $3 per share and that's one of the wayes that I use to determine is Tesla stock right now based on the sentiment and based on what Traders think is it a big discount in the short term we're getting there we are not quite fully there but we are getting there and of course I am buying Tesla's stock oh but man I am not buying anymore I am all in already I cannot buy anymore this stock sucks if you bought Tesla stock and you have not held the stock for 6.4 Years yet why are you complaining literally just looking at Tesla's history there is a period of about fiveish years where you could out bought Tesla stock and then lost money five years later and some people sold and they missed out on 10x gains so if I have a strategy and I am EX in based on that strategy I do not want to change that strategy in the middle of it because the market feels a certain way now mind you when I say I believe there's less than 1% chance of me losing money being in Tesla stock in the next roughly 10 years it does not mean that losing money is impossible I literally mean there's a less than 1% chance of that happening it is not impossible and in my case if I could find another company very I found the same odds I would then just buy a 100 companies like that but I don't think that exists and my background is being an entrepreneur and when you start a company you face incredible risk I have never started a company with a Chance of failure being less than 1% the risk is always 5% 10% maybe 20% but if the numbers make sense then it makes sense to follow the numbers is Tesla going to release the Next Generation vehicle yes is that vehicle going to crush the competition absolutely is it possible that that project may be delayed has every single project by Tesla uh has it been delayed well um I would keep my expectations in line with what happened before and despite these delays in the past did Tesla still annihilate many of the expectations that for example the Tesla bear had absolutely is the world going towards EVS yes which means naturally even if Tesla doesn't really do much growth will still be enormous currently everyone is looking at 2024 volume and there's no guidance from Tesla right now on the volume or margins which is what Gary blad believes is driving the stock down today currently the consensus for 2024 is 177% growth in terms of deliveries and Tesla's management refused to close the door on feature price C on the conference call yesterday which to me indicates if Tesla changes its strategy a little bit and just goes really deep with advertising and gets really Innovative with it there are going to be a lot more sales and the stock is likely to go up and Tesla did talk about advertising a little bit on the call now specifically on 2024 guidance this is what Tesla said our compan is currently between two major growth waves the first one began with the global expansion of the model free and Y platform and the next one we believe will be initiated by the global expansion at the Next Generation vehicle platform in 2024 our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023 as our teams work on the launch at the Next Generation vehicle at gigafactory Texas in 2024 the growth rate of deployments and revenue in our energy storage business should outpace the Automotive business that business is not going to be valued highly until the actual revenues will be really high it's going to get there but it's going to take some time Tesla by the way has 2.35 million in annual installed production capacity if Tesla produces that many vehicles and deliveries are good uh it's possible for Tesla to grow 30% year over-year but I don't think that uh Tesla is quite expec ing that in 2024 I will be updating my Tesla valuation model on patreon if you are inside then you know that I have been always expecting less than 30% growth for Tesla uh volume in 2024 so seeing these lower expectations from Tesla is not surprising to me at all Tesla said that in Q3 our Global Production reached a record annualized run rate of nearly 2 million vehicles in Q4 and Tesla's full fed on bringing the Next Generation platform to Market as quickly as possible with the plan to start production gigafactory Texas this platform will revolutionize how vehicles are manufactured big words