저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 시장이 과매도 상태이므로 공포 매도는 피하되 현금 비중을 늘리고 방어적으로 대응하라는 취지. 현 시장 상황: 다우 하락 전환(약 -0.73%), 연준 발언 이후 반등분 반납, 주택·은행·소비 관련 지표 악화로 펀더멘털 훼손 우려. Gundlach 논쟁: 채권 투자자 Gundlach가 약세장 진입과 즉시 매도를 주장했고, Cramer는 그 의견을 존중하지만 전면 매도에는 동의하지 않는다고 함. 2007년에도 비슷한 경고가 있었으나 시장은 이후 상승했다는 점을 언급. 방어 전략: 분산 포트폴리오 유지, 금·고배당주(배당 지급 여력 있는 기업) 보유 권고. 현금 비중은 늘리라고 조언. 반등 조건: Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Google, Netflix 등 대형 기술주 하락 중단과 ETF 환매 압력 해소가 필요하다고 봄. 연준의 정책 전환은 1월 회의 이후에나 가능하다고 전망. 리스크: 연준 정책 실패 가능성, 셧다운 등 정치 불확실성, 기술주 악재(Qualcomm-Apple 소송 등). 출연자 사과: 자신이 Gundlach를 비판했던 발언을 사과하며 이번 논쟁을 정리하려 함.
다듬은 글
Jimmy there yeah absolutely I think it's an important discussion one of you have to have and everybody's making some feel like the points and it's a very soft moment the idea of selling right now I can't say that I disagree with that because I think the market for our things I'm just not the level that I would do I think that you could get another bounce but I also want to point out and I'm going to be very straight about this you had a call on this week Jeb Rama and I in temperately was critical of him and he's proving to be very right and I just want to get that off my chest because I'm sorry about what I said it was not right the heat of the battle moment most I've seen since the city really the Great Depression recession where there's just a lot of different temperaments and I just kind of want to cool things myself by saying I should have said what I did yeah I mean he's obviously you know negative he said they were in a bear market we're down were I agree with them I've been recommending the people I actually have never recommend that since 2007 I bought some CDs myself obviously painters older than I was then I think gold works but most importantly I'm cognizant of what kevin O'Leary said which is that the mixed message was hard do I want to be like what Josh said depend upon the Fed I don't really know I know is if we had it this week micron bandit sense your bed carnival crease bed FedEx bad enough number of different retailers of the bed housing is terrible the banks are bad I don't know what oil fella what does the bed and what's working with Procter and Gamble yeah I mean this whole notion of of what the Fed has done this week Jim you've been critical of the Fed everybody knows that what do you make of of Powell versus Williams today with Steve it seemed to temporarily cool off the market but then we pretty much gave those gains in fact now we're negative by 73 on the Dow oh look I think actions speak louder than words that did hike I also felt that what when this constant like we are listening I don't want them to listen I went through to repudiate I wanted to say you know what the companies are really starting to say different things now I know that their issues even on this panel about how much homework that the Fed does and that's fine all saying it's the company's I speak to which may be different one basically do have really seen a pretty quick down six I think people don't think that there can be this to get decline but what are the banks telling you landing starting to go down housing is just terrible so we know I'm in a world where the fundamentals have deteriorated and therefore I think it's not just said of it I think the tenement is terrible but tennis strokes fundamental got there do you do you worry that you know gun lock said we're gonna be in this bear market and it's gonna last for a long time that is that the greatest fear at this point that maybe it's exacerbated by fed a policy error but that this ugly market that we're in could actually last for longer than we think well you know look I think Jeff is unbelievably good and I of course watched every minute of it craft and he's like the best Bond guys in my bond guru forever what what what I've reacted to was more of that I know that people who say get out now if I had a lot of people who watch me said you know I just heard gone long really respect them of which I do he's saying just get out now and I I don't want to do that in 2007 we were in tremendous Democrats get there a lot of their song okay and I was in favor of it someone wanted a show said you're yelling fire in a crowded theater here and I said dear is burning and the market was substantially higher then proceeded boosted so my clip is this i I don't want people to be scared I think if you need more cash I think you need to be a lot more defensive I did say that I want to buy I'm actually on the same side of the trade of the man I respect Jeff come on that's why I say I am sorry and I apologized and I tend not much of that frankly but he's you know the idea of the five years made people that who watch my show say I guess you oven we should tell everything I don't want people to do that I do want them to be much more cautious and I wish I wasn't more cautious but you know no disrespect the guys really good and he raised a good point but when you say that the nuclear winter part I just know that a lot of people get scared and I want them to be calm they graduate decisions quite enough but not that this wholesale sell I mean if you are diversified portfolio you're sitting there with McCormack and you got some Proctor you got some gold and you got some of these you know higher yielding stocks where they can pay the dividend you're gonna make some money and I just I just don't want to people to panic under understood and I'm sure Jeffrey's appreciative of what you said Jim I've communicated to him directly so I hope it takes by email because I feel badly I respect it he's a great guy and it's the heat of the moment I make some mistakes and when I sense and I want to be a man have to own up to it because that guy doesn't deserve it let me let me ask you this we play off the top of our show you know all of these issues that the market is facing and it's the shutdown its madis walking out the door and slamming it behind him it's the it's the Fed it's everything yes we're oversold right you've said it yourself but what is the catalyst what is the catalyst to stop this selling well I think that there will be in hot money yet and we need people to believe that you know what the stock is the park it has come down enough that the selling dries off the redemptions and and we get a lot of accidental high yielders we get companies that we know that can pay the dividends that are suddenly yielding a lot we would love I don't want to be too Fed dependent since we would love for pal to change his mind but I think they can change his mind but that's unfortunately not going to be for a couple of months not gonna be the January meeting to be that's wit but we need Apple Facebook Amazon Google Netflix the cloud Kings also stopped going down if they won't go and stop going down and till the ETF's that are selling them all business things the redemption stop and you'll know I mean but every one of those has a Facebook downgraded Apple with the sauce John for talk talk to Qualcomm Apple lawsuit terrible who knows what's going on with yet but I think out what it's doing well but nobody really cares we have to see the selling is a sponsored started bringing us down decline or the velocity the decline and I really don't know yet what happens I do feel that we saw when Williams was a little more I would say a term that we could get about but that's not what does that that's not what's about selling stocks as the fundamentals aren't this bed and right now we got so much bad news about the economy from these major companies that you have to let it run its course and can I blame anyone that stones overshadowed by what is another Asian countries go to mr.
Goldman Oh 2050 stocks are real run mr. phantom and I need to see people stop being desperate yeah right now they're desperate to get out Jim you're a gentleman thank you so much for calling in I really appreciate it I'm gonna reiterate I apologize I never mean to say anything of people I respect I do not mean to be as impressed I was okay yeah you enjoy your vacation you
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