저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 빌 애크먼이 2020년 공포 발언으로 숏 포지션 이익을 얻고, 2022년에도 금리 인상 주장으로 헤지 이익을 노린다고 주장하며, 그의 발언을 이해충돌로 보고 경계하라는 취지다. 2020년 CNBC 발언 논란: 애크먼이 팬데믹 초기 '지옥이 온다'며 극단적 공포를 조성했는데, 그 직전 매입한 풋옵션으로 약 27백만 달러 투자로 27억 달러 이익을 봤다는 주장이 제기됨. 2022년 연준 관련 주장: 애크먼이 뉴욕연은에 발표해 연준이 즉시 테이퍼링하고 금리를 빨리 올려야 한다고 주장했다고 함. 영상은 그가 주로 주식을 보유한 헤지펀드 매니저라서 주식 폭락이 오히려 자신의 금리 헤지에 이득이 된다고 해석함. 애크먼 측 해명: 금리 상승에 대비해 헤지했다고 공식 밝혔으나, 영상은 이를 자신의 롱온리 주식 포트폴리오 방어가 아닌 이익 극대화 전략으로 해석함. 주장된 전략: 공포 조성 → 숏/헤지 매도 → 폭락한 우량주 매수 → 양쪽에서 수익. 힐튼(매수 시점 50달러대, 당시 약 140달러)을 예로 듦. 영상은 이 전략이 2019년 58%, 2020년 71% 수익률을 낸 퍼싱스퀘어의 성과와 연결된다고 주장. 투자 조언 성격 내용: 가격 결정력(pricing power)을 가진 '초내구성' 기업 보유가 금리·원자재 변동에 덜 취약하다는 애크먼 견해를 소개하고, 피자·치폴레 같은 필수 소비 기업을 예로 듦. 리스크·조건: 금리 급등 시 시장 급락 가능성, 연준이 경기침체 시 금리를 0으로 되돌릴 가능성 언급. 출연자 전망: 애크먼은 장기적으로 가격 결정력 있는 기업을 선호하며 단기 금리 상승을 헤지하는 입장. 영상 제작자는 애크먼의 공개 발언이 실제 의견이 아닌 이해관계 기반 의제라고 단정. (주의: 영상 내용은 제작자의 해석과 주장이며 사실 확인되지 않은 부분이 많음. 자막은 자동인식이라 오류 가능.)
다듬은 글
march 18 2020 billionaire hedge fund manager bill ackman calls into cnbc in a complete panic what would the president be asking the american people to do he's not saying you know he's not saying to storm the beaches at normandy right he's saying go home the infamous hellas coming interview shocks the markets it appears that ackman was distraught crying over the fact that the country and the world were falling apart right in front of our eyes but as time went on we discovered some facts that made us rethink bill's motivations turns out ackman wasn't crying because he felt bad he was crying because he couldn't believe how much money he just made off his puts puts that he bought weeks before his interview resulting in a 2.7 billion gain from a small 27 million dollar investment many questioned his integrity and motivations for pushing panic while holding bets that would profit off the panic itself now nearly a year later bill is in the spotlight again for something similar a prediction that if right could spell the beginning of the end for the u.s markets in a confusing set of tweets ackman had the following to say about the federal reserve he claims he gave a presentation to the federal reserve bank of new york in order to share his views on inflation and fed policy the summary of this presentation was that bill and his team think the fed should taper immediately and begin raising rates as soon as possible now think about this for a second why would a hedge fund manager who owns mostly equities want the fed to taper we've discussed this on this channel many times tapering would be the right thing to do but it would also mean that the stock market would take a massive nose dive of course it's hard to imagine that a billionaire hedge fund manager would quote do the right thing by ignoring his interests and pushing forth a policy that would ultimately result in heavy losses for him and his clients ten minutes later bill tweeted what we all suspected he was in fact short claiming that quote as we have previously disclosed we have put our money where our mouth is and hedging our exposure to an upward move in rates as we believe that a rise in rates could negatively impact our long only equity portfolio that's a nice way of saying i'll make a ton of money if the fed tapers this calls into question the integrity of the federal reserve as well why are they even taking a meeting with a hedge fund manager who has a vested interest in pushing a certain policy that would be like bill belichick presenting to the nfl leadership why his team should only play at home an outrageous proposal that in my opinion is a massive conflict of interest now to be fair not everything about this proposal is bad ackman has made his strategy clear for 2022 it's one that will make money either way the market goes if you listen to his latest interview his strategy is simple yet effective and it's one you can replicate for your own good oftentimes in the comments there are many who ask how to protect themselves against this threat of high inflation and here it is the emphasis of our strategy is owning these what they call super durable undisruptible companies right people are going to be ordering pizza and having it delivered and they're going to eat it and if for eight dollars you can feed a family of four with a the pizza pie that's a pretty good proposition and you get it delivered in 28 minutes by a smiling person it comes in a box that keeps it warm that's going to continue you know hilton um you know hilton's stock was down the most i think of anything we owned when the pandemic was announced we meaningfully increased our position the company in the mid-50s stock today's 140.
so when you own businesses that have very very attractive economic characteristics and they're largely immune not immune on a day-to-day basis but they're protected from interest rates moving up or down or commodity prices moving up or down i think that maybe single most important characteristic today is going to be pricing power you know if the cost of your inputs go up better be able to raise price not lose the customer and that is true for every one of our companies so there you have akmen essentially saying that the correct way to navigate the markets in the future is to own companies that have pricing power businesses that people will use no matter what even with inflation booming i agree with bill that individuals will continue ordering pizzas and chipotle ask yourself the question would you stop eating your chicken bowl if they raised the price by 10 sure you may be upset for a week or two but i truly believe most people would continue to buy but this is not the full picture there is something bill will not say publicly it's very likely that his preferred scenario is that the fed raises rates quickly this would crash the markets including the stocks he talked about but it will also make him a ton of money on the various interest rate hedges he has as well if this played out to his plan he would then sell those hedges taking the profits to buy up the beaten down stocks ultimately we know that the fed would push rates back to zero if a recession was threatened and again bill just as he did in the infamous 2020 short would make money from the fall and the eventual rise don't forget that while he was shouting hell is coming on cnbc he was exiting his short position and buying up hilton stock in the 50s hilton is now 140.
this was a strategy we've seen before this interview from march 18th 2020 showcases exactly this he shouts over and over again that hilton stock is going to zero but listen to what happens halfway through the interview it's quite an amazing clip these guys know exactly how to play the game with the media now you know take a look at hilton stock we're a major shareholder of hilton hilton is the canary in the coal mine this is an incredibly well capitalized amazing dominant global company that actually doesn't know many hotels it just collects royalties down from like 120 to 50.
okay it's going to zero okay along with every other hotel company in the world you know park hotels and resorts this you know stocks down from 33 to 4. this is a spin off from hilton why is it down from 33 to 4 because every hotel is going to be shut down in the country everyone hang on hang on just one second um you say hilton is going to zero i mean again i'm a major shareholder what i'm saying is if we allow this to continue the way we allow it to continue okay every hotel company in the world okay is done okay because no business can survive a period of 18 months without revenue okay and that's stick with me and that's what happens okay when if you operate the way we're operating now okay now let me give you so that's a very very bearish thought okay and i've been super bearish uh but i got bullish okay and the reason why i got bullish and i've been aggressively buying stocks including hilton today okay and i've been buying all the way down hilton restaurant brands starbucks you know walk your way through our pro the only stocks i'm not buying are companies were on the board and i'm restricted so that should confirm your suspicions the strategy is simple buy a short hedge start a panic sell the short hedge and buy up the beaten down stock profit on both ends this is exactly why ackman's firm perishing square was able to post a 58 return in 2019 and a 71 return in 2020.
i hope this video serves as proof that whatever you hear in the media from someone who manages other people's money is likely not their actual opinion but rather an agenda-based push to serve their own interests raising rates may be the correct thing to do but pushing the federal reserve to do it only after you have secured a short position seems a little outrageous to me let me know what you guys think in the comments below as always thank you for watching please don't forget to hit that subscribe button and check out my new channel in the description below
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