저자: 미상 · 외국인
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찰리 멍거의 투자 원칙을 네 가지로 압축해 소개하는 영상이다. 핵심 결론: 멍거식 투자는 복잡한 공식이 아니라 '어리석지 않은 것을 꾸준히 지키는 것'과 능력 범위(역량의 원) 안에서 투자하는 것이 핵심이다. 원칙 1 - 이해 가능한 기업: 능력 범위 안에서만 투자하고, 모르는 것은 피한다. 독서와 사색(장시간 걷기 포함)을 통해 지식을 쌓아야 한다. 원칙 2 - 해자(경쟁우위): 깊이 있는 실사 후 수년간의 부진에도 흔들리지 않을 지속 가능한 경쟁우위가 있어야 한다. 기술 기업은 해자 예측이 어렵다는 점(블록버스터 vs 넷플릭스)을 언급하며, 브랜드(코카콜라, 디즈니, 스타벅스)와 원가우위(GEICO)를 예로 든다. 원칙 3 - 신뢰할 수 있는 경영진: 정직성과 능력이 있는 경영진이어야 하며, 인적 실수를 버틸 수 있는 기업이어야 한다. 원칙 4 - 합리적 가격과 안전마진: 적정 가격에 사고 안전마진을 확보해야 한다. 기회비용(무위험 금리 포함)을 중요하게 고려하고, 기회가 드물게 올 때는 크게 베팅하되 좋은 기업을 골라 오래 보유하는 것이 멍거·테리 스미스식 접근이다. 영상은 멍거의 다요인 사고와 기회비용 중시를 강조하며 마무리한다. 영상 자체는 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시한다.
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and we're just gonna go live someone has sent in a question and they have said you often talk about charlie munger's rationality do i talk about anything else i mean it's pretty much what our brand's based on anyway you often talk about charlie munger's rationality what would manga look for if he were to invest in startups i'm not going to talk just around what he would look for in startups i'm going to look i'm going to talk about what he would look for when investing in general publicly listed companies it'll apply to startups too but where it doesn't i will actually state that it doesn't if i were to go in detail we could be here for a while but really the whole thing in our manga is around keeping it simple and so i've cut it down to really four main things there are other things he mentions too let's get into it these four things are number one be capable of understanding the company stay within your circle of competence and i mean manga has this pretty well known quote i mean he has a lot of quotes but he says knowing what you don't know is more useful than being brilliant acknowledging what you don't know is the dawning of wisdom so essentially what he's saying is you know identify your circle of competence and use your knowledge when possible to stay away from things that you do not understand yeah i mean avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance so this principle really relates to another one one of uh manga sayings where he says people are trying to be smart all i'm trying to do is not be idiotic but it's harder than most people think and another quote which is it is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid instead of trying to be very intelligent so how do you stay in your circle of competence well one would think from if if we were to think from first principles you'd have to develop this circle of competence from somewhere how well pretty basic read more to learn more about a particular company industry or market no secret that monger and buffett read 500 pages a day and the importance of just sitting and thinking to complement the reading because you're consuming all this information for hours and hours but then where is it like what are you doing with it so you're storing it but then you need to process it so after the reading these guys are actually known for either sitting and thinking alone for hours or going for very long walks as well and i've mentioned this before cal newport talks about this in deep work this sort of meditative like or stoic like practice where you just go on a long walk and if you're tackling a tough problem whether you're a investor computer scientist whatever it may be in life whether you're a startup founder if you're tackling something during the day you'll actually often get the solution as you're on your walk obviously without technology just you and your thoughts and you know people cannot just sit still they have zero attention span in a modern day i mean mungo is clearly implementing cal newport's deep work long before cal was even born and there's a great saying that most of uh along the lines of most of man's problem comes from his inability to sit in a room alone so number two what manga would look for is it must be a business with a moat an intrinsic and durable competitive advantage because once you've done your in-depth diligence and committed you know that even a few years of bad performance won't lead to a loss of sleep peter thiel talks thoroughly about this and how he looks for startups with a monopolistic like characteristic i wonder how technological substitution as with horse carriages going to cars compares to possible brand or taste substitutions like coke in terms of how easily either can get through moats and now what i mean by that is would a product like coke which cannot really be suppressed through tech have a stronger long-term moats even coke zero couldn't beat coke as a product and you look at blockbuster they had a video moat but netflix came flying over with technological innovation took over so it's tougher to predict most moats in tech companies and startups for instance are you saying that you could have looked at google 14 years ago when their monopoly characteristics are obvious and predicted their earnings in 2021 i mean i doubt it come on guys but in tech notes i mean the only way i kind of see it there are a few ways one is probably if it's a b2b sas with a mission critical solution and a high switching costs a few other things have to go right as well probably have emotes um but if we were to just look at companies in general not tech or startups alone if we're talking about we're talking about coca-cola talking about disney we're talking about starbucks i mean you know a parent wants to just put on a video for their kid uh where's the first place they even go to it's just you know instantly they just think of a disney movie so similar with coke when you want a soft drink brand motor is very important as with starbucks you also have cost mode so we're talking about you know um cost advantage and what springs to mind here is geico uh which obviously uh made warren buffett's favorite stock and the ultimate key to geico's success is its rock bottom operating costs so they have a cost advantage which virtually no competitor can match and um yeah that that leads to a moat the third thing manga would look for is the company should have trustworthy management and of course this applies to startups and just any and every company even if it's publicly listed integrity and talent goes a long way a company should be able to withstand human error because eventually someone's going to come along and screw this company up i mean you want a company that can handle that and get back on its feet within a few years examples that spring to mind instantly peter kaufman what a human being ethics and integrity and talent instantly springs to mind number four and the final it must be a business you can buy for a price that makes sense and you buy at a sensible price with a margin of safety to mitigate any potential risks mungo in the berkshire annual meeting 2003 said in engineering people have a big margin of safety but in the financial world people don't give a damn about safety they let it balloon and balloon and balloon so look i mean this margin of safety concept is about making it likely that you have the odds significant in your favor by trying to find a substantial cushion in terms of the odds manga doesn't believe that this happens very often particularly when it is in your circle of competence and the other investing filters are in place since finding a significantly mispriced bet doesn't happen often when it does happen manga says you should bet big investing is where you find a few great companies and then sit on your ass and also if you are investing at the precede stage especially for startups it doesn't apply in this case uh if you're for example throwing just a 25 000 ticket at a pre-seed round as an angel that doesn't count you're not really there's no evaluation methodologies to use you're just betting on the team to figure it out and this is where the power law comes in and the dartboard analogy that iman and i talk about where as a angel investor or vc you're throwing 100 darts at the dartboard hoping one of them or two of them stick the ones that become large companies or unicorns but if you're looking at publicly listed companies it's beyond the scope of this video if i were to really summarize in a couple of words manga has previously responded in the 2016 daily journal annual meeting and he said obviously it's relevant what the return you get on your bonds is that affects the value of other assets in the general climate i.e equities obviously your opportunity costs should cover your own investment decision making if you happen to have a rich uncle who will sell you his business for percent of what it's worth you don't want to think about some other investment if the opportunity cost is so great considering everything else you should forget about it and most people don't pay enough attention to opportunity cost bridge players know about opportunity cost poker players know about opportunity cost but in an mba faculty members and other important people they hardly know their ass from a plate of hot squash and people continue to question him at this annual meeting around valuations and he simply just ends with we don't use numeric formulas that way we take into account a whole lot of factors it's a multi-factor thing and there are trade-offs between factors it's just like a bridge hand you have to think of a lot of different things at once there's never going to be a formula that will make you rich just by going through some horrible process if that were true every mathematical nerd who gets ace and algebra would be rich so you have to be comfortable thinking about a lot of things at once and correctly thinking about a lot of things at once and we don't have a formula that will help you and all that stuff is relevant opportunity cost of course is crucial and of course the risk-free rate is a factor and among many other things which i agree with going back to the point we said earlier circle of competence reading becoming a multi-disciplinary thinker as manga and kaufman talk about these are all important things to have in your mental toolbox you can say to pull from when assessing companies in a multi-factor process he is very similar to terry smith of fun smith who says buy good companies don't overpay do nothing and terry smith who's known as the english warren buffett as among us says sit on your ass you're paying less to brokers you're listening to less nonsense and if it works the tax system gives you an extra one two or three percentage points per annum so yeah time is a good friend i hope that helps and this is not investment advice peace you
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