DOGE could be a short-term headwind for bitcoin, says Miller Value Partners' Bill Miller IV

요약 보기

DOGE 정부지출 삭감은 단기적으로 비트코인에 역풍이지만 실제 삭감 규모는 적자 대비 제한적이라 장기적으로 비트코인은 금을 대체하는 통화 견제 자산으로 성장할 것이라 봄. 비트코인 이론가치를 약 100만 달러로 제시하고 기관의 비트코인 편입 흐름을 근거로 2~3% 배분을 권함. 매그니피선 7은 미보유, 대형 기술주 대비 중소형 가치주에 역사적 기회가 있다고 봄.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. wh why the cool down do you think of late in in Bitcoin 96 little over 96 is where it currently stands 96k well it's tough to call every 10% twist and turn in a new technology like this Scott uh but it seems to me like Traders and people that are more focused on short-term outlooks may be looking at Doge and saying well they may be actually eliminating some of this proplate government spending which is bad for something that effectively will be the check and balance on that but when you actually dig into the math on Doge and I think reality is eventually going to get in the way here and that if you just look at the US Aid situation right 60 billion let's say all of that goes away well that's only 130th of the deficit so you got to do that 29 more times and they're not going to be able to cut all of that and then when you actually look into what can be cut there's a real limit to it so I think in the short term Bitcoin is bumping up against some of that Outlook perspective but in the long term it's inevitable I see a a bunch of headlines regarding tariffs in Bitcoin asking the question should you stay away from crypto because of tariffs um what do you make of that and is that any of the reason for the recent weakness well tariffs at the end of the day are inflationary it's it's hard for me again to say what every Twist and Turn means but again we look at it from a value investors perspective uh so there's really two elements to the investment thesis here one is the conceptual valuation framework I mentioned before it's probably the new Monopoly or will eventually get to that level as a check and IM balance against proplate government spending and so gold has historically served that role Bitcoin is going to serve that role in a much better way as it's automated it's more transparent it's transportable and more secure and has a much more clear uh Supply protocol so from a conceptual valuation perspective Gold's valuation is 20 trillion Bitcoin at 2 trillion so that would imply a fundamental intrinsic value about a million dollars of Bitcoin today uh then second there's a game theory aspect to it Scott which is um you know at a two trillion market cap today uh it's approaching 1% of the global basket for financial assets and so if you don't own any Bitcoin today as an allocator you're now effectively short the best performing asset for the better part of the past two decades uh and then the other game theory way I think about it is the US monetary policy makers have an explicit goal to devalue everything you own that's priced in dollars by 2 to 3% a year so why wouldn't you take two to 3% of everything you own and stick it in a system entirely outside of the Fiat system uh and I think that's why a lot of companies are doing it you know if you look at the global landscape today and public markets a lot of companies are converging on a Bitcoin standard there are now 70 companies on publicly traded exchanges around the globe that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets everyone knows strategy and some of these other companies that are much larger but we have things like Tesla out there holding uh Bitcoin there's Marcato Libre Alliance Resource Partners is a Coal Company so there are people adopting Bitcoin treasury strategies more and more every single year and as other companies see companies do this and outperform they're going to want some Bitcoin so there's only a certain number available so 2 to 3% um maybe is is worthwhile you say um what jumps out to me too is the 0% that you have in the mag seven you don't own any of them no uh you look at their spending plans they just announced $300 billion of catbacks plans collectively over the next year so part of the investment thesis for a lot of the people buying these names is well they have effectively a massive marginal free cash flow margin on all their additional revenues which is going to flow to their bottom line well maybe not if they're going to need to invest all this money and other stuff and if you look at the valuation of small and mid and value names relative to the overall Market we're looking at historic opportunity I think for a lot of small and midcap names