저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
CPI가 큰 영향을 주지 않을 것이며 시장은 관세 이슈를 더 우려한다. 연준 금리인하는 4~6회보다 적을 가능성이 높고, 정부 셧다운·관세 재부과가 핵심 변수다. 밸류에이션은 S&P500 약 22배로 부담스럽지만 나머지 493개 종목은 약 19배로 합리적이다. 매그니피센트7은 30~35배에 달해 신중할 필요가 있으며, 경쟁 심화로 마진이 압박받을 수 있다.
다듬은 글
We want to bring in a regular guest who's got something special going on today. This is Jeremy the Eagle Seagal, professor emeritus of finance at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business, chief economist at WisdomTree. Tree, congratulations, Jeremy. A huge win for the Eagles and man, was that decisive?
Absolutely. I think the MVP should be given to the defense. I don't want to take away from Jalen Hurts. He did great, but wow, what a smack down. Unbelievable. nothing that that Mahomes could do and to see him flustered like that. That is I've never seen that before. Me neither. Me neither. That was something.
Anyway, congratulations and I I get it. The hat I would I'd probably wear that all year myself. Professor Seagal, let's try and figure out what's happening in the markets. We spoke earlier this morning and Joe made this point that he's feeling unsettled by all this not knowing feeling a little rudderless, I think was the term you used.
And I think that's fair. There's so many things that we're waiting to see. Not knowing exactly how things are going to play out with policy from Washington with tariffs potentially. How do you look at all of this and try and figure out what to do with stock market? Yeah. And I think the CPI in in an hour is going to be one of the least impactful that we've had over the last 6 12 months.
First of all, I don't think it's going to be a great one. There's there's seasonal biases that push up the January. So I think it's going to be at or maybe one tick above. Secondly, we have a whole new monthly cycle of data before the FOMC meeting on March 19th. So you know, it's always the latest one next month that tends to count.
And truthfully, I think that the market is now you know, more concerned about tariffs. Um than this the CPI. I mean, they're sort of reconciled to hey, maybe one cut, maybe not. I mean, that whole thing about four cuts is is down. I know Citybank is called for that, but that I think I think you're only going to get four or five cuts six cuts if you're going to if you're going to get some really weak economic news and I don't see that.
A second thing of course that's coming up is again the shutdown of the government. Um you know, he Trump has to get all the Republicans on board. You know, the Dems are all going to vote against it. So you know, he has to line all those up. So I think you know, that's that's factor one, but I think you know, the question of whether Trump's going to whether tariffs are going to be reimposed and at what level and what kind of level of retaliation.
I would put that as number one and I'd put the question of getting everyone in line. I think there'll be another continuing resolution because until they get the omnibus bill put up and passed, but they need to fight for that. And then of course looking at that data, but again we have 6 weeks until the meeting.
So if you're looking at positive factors, I guess it's still DOJ and the regulatory changes that have been brought by it. How much of that has already been factored in? I guess I'm DOJ is exciting. I mean, actually I think that that I think the market is looking very positively and surprisingly how much they think could be get done under Musk.
I mean, look what he did to Tesla. I mean, he had saved costs that virtually no no one no expert thought was possible. And you know, he was you know, they they gave him that that mega pay package that they never thought they'd have to pay and he made it. So you know, he he would be the man to do it and I think there's there's excitement about that.
But then again, I mean, how many how much you're going to save and what is that you know, I mean, you know, Trump wants to take taxes off of social security, off of tips. He really talked about making the salt deductions again full. I mean, that's a trillions of dollars. So you need to come through on some other side to get that passed.
That's going to be a a tough nut to crack, but I think you know, those I think those are the things swirling around. You know, how do we position politically? You know, we got to get the continuing resolution. Then we get an anonymous omnibus bill that includes border security, immigration and the tax cut extension plus some other tax cuts.
I think the 2017 tax cuts by themselves is easy to get through. I think everything else is going is going to be harder and that's that's where the fight is going to be. So Jeremy, we had someone say 125 basis point cuts. I don't know about that, but are you counting on any multiple expansion? Um and if not uh we're not cheap and and that that might not be a reason to stay out of the market that we're not cheap.
But what what do you say? Are we at 22 times earnings? What what what would you say? 22? 20 We're 22. But anything we get any advance we get is going to be from uh from earnings growing. Is there a reason to think that that the the environment we're in would would allow companies to grow at 10 or 15% this year?
Yeah. Well, you know, we have these two markets. We have the mag seven which is X techs X Tesla is selling for 30 35. And then we have the other 493 stocks that are selling more towards 19, which is to me very reasonable. I've often talked about 20 as an equilibrium PE. So really it depends on what happens to that section.
Um and you know, there we we had deep seek. We had that BYD announcement putting pressure I think on Tesla. Is that is that sector going to be the leader in the next bull market. So the question is overall people say 22, but we really have these two markets and whether mag seven can continue the momentum that it's had over the last five years, 10 years or whether we see the cracks beginning to form in some of the narratives on on the mag seven.
You wouldn't necessarily advocate putting any money to work right now. You want to wait and see the data, too? I would I would be cautious on the mag seven. I I I like the other the other groups. I mean, at 19 I like them. And then we you know, we've talked about a long time and certainly they haven't they've lagged.
You know, you go to mid cap and you go to small cap and you go to 15, 14, 13. You don't need much growth to get a a decent return on that. But as long as mag the mag seven continue 15, 18, they'll be the leaders. The question is now we see this competition could bring down margin. Will they be the leaders in the next 12 months?
I'd love to be able to give you an answer on that, but I think we just have to wait and see on the data.
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