저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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2023년 세계 경제 위기 가능성과 대비책을 다룬 영상이다. 결론: 달리오는 부채 증가, 달러 약세, 무역전쟁, 정치 불안이 겹친 2023년 경제 붕괴 위험을 경고한다. 핵심 주장: 현재 경제 여건이 대공황 이전과 유사하며, 부채 확대와 화폐 발행이 핵심 문제다. 정부 채권 가치 하락이 SVB 같은 은행 붕괴를 낳았다는 사례를 든다. 금리·인플레이션: 금리가 인플레이션 아래면 구매력이 상실되고 채권 가치가 떨어진다. 중앙은행의 긴축은 불균형을 바로잡으려는 조치다. 중국·지정학: 미중 무역분쟁으로 미국 일자리 최소 30만 개 감소, 기업 시가총액 1.7조 달러 손실 추정. 미중 전쟁 위험이 커지고 있다고 경고한다. 대응 전략: 현금은 안전한 투자가 아니며, 인플레이션 연동채·금·실물자산·암호화폐 등 분산 포트폴리오를 권한다. 비트코인은 전액 투자가 아닌 소액 헤지 목적으로만 보유하라고 조언한다. 생활·재정 리스크: 거주지 위험(부채·군사력·경제규모 등 18개 지표 국가 평가)과 비상자금 점검을 권고한다. 출연자 전망: 달리오는 2023년 붕괴 가능성을 경고하지만 확정 시점은 말하지 않으며, 예측이 빗나간 적이 있다고 스스로 밝힌다. 비트코인: 과거 비판해 왔으나 현재 소량 보유 중이며, 이는 분산 목적의 헤지라고 설명한다. 삼성전자·SK하이닉스 등 국내 종목과 SOXL·TQQQ 등 레버리지 ETF에 대한 언급은 없다.
다듬은 글
what is money worth what is the supply demand Ray dalio the billionaire investor and founder of Bridgewater Associates is warning that the world is facing a major economic crisis in 2023. dalio has been studying economic history for decades believing that the current economic conditions are eerily similar to those that preceded the Great Depression he argues that the world is facing a perfect storm of factors that could lead to a collapse including Rising debt levels a declining dollar a trade war and political instability dalio is not the only one who is warning of a potential crisis other experts have also expressed concerns about the state of the global economy if dalio is right the 2023 crisis could have devastating consequences for the world it is important to be aware of the risks and take steps to prepare for the possibility of a major economic downturn the development of debt and the printing of money internal strife brought on by economic disparities and the challenge to existing Authority posed by increasing power are three key factors impacting the present it is essential to know historical cycles and the five major forces that govern everything nature technology internal and foreign conflict and money and debt you just touched online the largest amount of debt offerings and monetization of debt what is money worth what is the supplied demand the dominating power is currently in Decline due to contemporary events including technological disruption money Printing and pandemics the grand cycle of the rise and fall of Empires and Reserve currencies repeats predictably every six stages with phase six being war and collapse the government sold a lot of debts which led to many people buying government bonds and when interest rates Rose the value of that debt increased leaving the bank broke due to fractional Reserve banking this is how Silicon Valley Bank collapsed the bank made a secure investment in government bonds but as the bonds lost value and clients requested their money back the bank encountered a liquidity crisis bringing to light the problem of organizations throughout the world holding assets that they borrowed money for but are now losing value although the future of falling value is difficult to foresee it may be assessed on an intermediate or longer term basis the government's capacity to create money for individual recipients and to sell bonds can result in currency depreciation and a substantial default risk for debts holding organizations when interest rates are below inflation purchasing power is lost and inflation can lower the value of bonds holding on to debt can be harmful since it could result in not being paid or being paid with printed money by hiking interest rates and tightening monetary policy the Central Bank seeks to correct the imbalance brought on by low interest rates which causes inflation favors borrowers but harms lenders and creditors too many claims a little inherent worth for financial assets create a situation akin to musical chairs too many claims and little inherent worth for financial assets creates a situation akin to musical chairs first Ray dalio predicted the financial collapse of 2008.
the coveted epidemic he said will put significant financial pressure on the American economy for years to come 72 year old billionaire investor who made Bridgewater Associates the biggest hedge fund in the world is now warning of a new economic disaster and wants you to be ready during a live streamed q a on Friday dalio stated I think we're at risk of a war with China mainly as a result of misunderstandings dalio pointed out that his forecaster just predictions and he's been incorrect before but based on historical Trends over the previous 500 years he asserted such calamities out unavoidable in his most recent book principles for dealing with the changing World Order dalio point that American efforts to make China and its culture more American would ultimately backfire and Spark a confrontation that might escalate the trade spat between the two countries which the Trump Administration launched in 2018 and has already caused American businesses to reduce employee pay reduce profit margins and increase consumer prices in only its first year the trade War lost Americans at least three hundred thousand jobs according to Moody's Analytics research according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York analysis from the previous this year the trade conflict caused American corporation's market value 1.7 trillion dollars dalio's comments about China have prompted recent controversy after telling CNBC last week that China's human rights policies were akin to those of a strict parent he clarified his comments in a LinkedIn post I was attempting to explain what a Chinese leader told me about how they think about governing Dalia wrote I was not expressing my own opinion or endorsing that approach in that post he expressed hope that the US and China could back away from the precipice of conflict what I think and what Bridgewater does are of minuscule importance relative to the rapidly growing risk of U.S war with China he wrote I hope that thoughtful attention will be paid to that issue and that Mutual understandings will increase and inclinations to fight will diminish having adequate money for security can help you attain a balanced investing position then think about Regional implications including Financial stability internal strife and the danger of world war Bridgewater Associate's success is attributable to their approach of concurrently searching for opportunities in uncorrelated high-yielding assets which results in excellent portfolio diversification and the capacity to earn profits without suffering significant losses regardless of what happens dalio said on Friday he has a simple principle for approaching future events if you worry you don't have to worry and if you don't worry you have to worry worrying he said prompts you to take a close look at your own personal risks and encourages you to take action on them one risk for example could be location meaning the physical place where you live and work dalio's book contains a health index that rates roughly a dozen Nations on 18 factors like debt burdens military strength and economic output it's intended as a resource for readers to assess risks and form strategies on where to live and invest according to Forbes he plans to launch a website housing real-time versions of the data moving is often a hassle but dalio said it's worth considering under financially worrying circumstances flexibility is key he added similarly he advised measuring your financial risks in inflation-adjusted terms instead of today's dollars if you have cash in a savings account for example it's probably accruing value at a different rate than your other Investments since it's being taxed by inflation but that doesn't mean you should exclusively choose other Investments over a savings account account or vice versa amid chaotic times dalio said you need your emergency savings to be funded by a safe well-diversified portfolio dalio's first step to a strong portfolio is assessing your current investment strategy if you have one to figure out how many weeks you could financially survive if you lost your job it always pays to find out the worst case scenario uncover yourself from that dalio said then make sure your money isn't all in one place cash is not a safe investment dalio told CNBC last week as inflation hit a 31-year high in the U.S instead he suggested on Friday build as diverse a portfolio as possible ranging from inflation index bonds which dalio recommended above regular bonds to physical assets like gold your portfolio could even include digital assets like cryptocurrencies in May dalio told coindesk that he personally owns a small amount of Bitcoin despite years of criticizing crypto the reason dalio said on Friday it's a hedge bet made solely for the purpose of diversification I urge those who like Bitcoin or those who like gold no not to make it an all or none decision he said people may approach situations with an open mind by removing emotions from the picture gaining perspective and accepting truth via meditation knowing the patterns on a chessboard and The crucial bits of information in the financial markets can help you navigate the cycle and make smarter decisions the speaker analyzes the complicated relationship between China and Taiwan highlighting the need to defend freedom and taiwan's interest while also taking into account China's Viewpoint and taiwan's part in the American containment policy instead of complicated subjects like financing human nature individuals need to comprehend the principles and foundations of history and cause and effect linkages to be able to navigate the world so what does the future hold will the world collapse in 2023 only time will tell the stakes are high the future is uncertain but you can weather any storm by being prepared
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