저자: MaxKeiser · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 비트코인이 금을 대체하는 안전자산이며, 금 가격은 부채 증가와 달러 방어를 위한 시장 조작에서 풀려나면 오를 것이라는 주장. 비트코인 가격 전망: 첫 목표는 코인당 10만 달러이며, 이는 시가총액 약 1조 달러 이상 수준이고 궁극적으로는 약 7조 달러 규모로 금과 가치를 다툴 수 있다고 봄. 현재 팔 이유는 없다는 입장. 금과의 관계: 금 커뮤니티와 비트코인 커뮤니티의 대립은 불필요하며, 금 가격 침체는 달러를 지키려는 세력의 공매도(네이키드 숏셀링) 때문이라고 주장. 비트코인이 월가 구조를 무너뜨리면 금 가격 억제 장치가 사라져 금이 자유롭게 오를 것이라고 봄. 이 경우 금 가격은 4,000~5,000달러 범위가 가능하다고 언급. 짐 리카즈 주장 비판: 리카즈는 전 세계 부채를 청산하려면 금 가격이 1만 달러가 되어야 하며 금본위제 회귀가 필요하다고 주장. 발언자는 이를 1930~50년대 사고방식이라고 비판하고, 같은 논리를 비트코인에 적용하면 코인당 수백만 달러도 가능하다고 주장. 비트코인 블랙홀 및 초비트코인화: 법정화폐와 주식, 채권의 자금이 비트코인으로 빨려 들어간다는 개념을 제시하고, 미국 달러가 비트코인 대비 초인플레이션 붕괴 중이라고 주장. 현재 법정화폐 붕괴가 리카즈가 말한 위기이며 이미 진행 중이라고 봄. 안전자산 평가: 비트코인은 희소성, 대체 가능성, 휴대성, 선호도 등 금의 특성을 모두 갖추고 있으며, 여기에 경제 구조 자체를 바꾸는 요소가 더해져 금보다 우월하다고 주장. 리스크 및 조건: 리스크 언급은 없음. 주장의 전제는 비트코인이 월가 시스템을 실제로 무너뜨린다는 점이며, 근거는 주로 이론과 비유에 의존함. 방송 시점은 2017년 12월로 과거 발언.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin will outperform everything, including Warren Buffett, says Max Keiser – Part 2
Max Keiser: Where do I see it headed? Well, I think the first major stop will be 100,000 dollars per coin. That would take it into the realm of being a percentage of gold in terms of valuation. Above that, we'd be above the trillion-dollar valuation mark. The total goal is roughly seven trillion dollars in total valuation. I think we're going to get up there and start challenging gold on the valuation side.
Interviewer: So you wouldn't sell any right now?
Max Keiser: No, I wouldn't. No, no.
Interviewer: Okay, let's compare it to gold, because people love pitting these two together. In a recent piece you said Bitcoin is like Moses for gold. How so?
Max Keiser: Thanks for bringing that up. The contention between the gold community and the Bitcoin community shouldn't be there. We should be working together and getting along. Initially the gold people hated Bitcoin, but they've been coming over one by one. Royce Bagg over at Gold Money, a good friend of mine, is coming over to the Bitcoin side. He's not only offering crypto on Gold Money now. He said he's doing more crypto per day than gold, so it's eclipsing the gold business.
But here's what I mean. Why has gold been in such a slump for so many years? There's a huge body of evidence suggesting it's being held down by forces that want to keep fiat money in place and the dollar strong. They attack gold and silver in the markets with a lot of short selling, including naked short selling. This has been well documented, and they've been keeping the price down because gold is a threat to the dollar.
Bitcoin doesn't have anything in place to do to it what they do to gold. So if Bitcoin succeeds in killing Wall Street, the whole machinery that keeps the price of gold down will evaporate, and gold will be free to rise. Take Patrick Byrne over at Overstock.com, who was a victim of naked short selling and fought it for years. He's starting a platform called tZERO, with settlement date zero, which will totally kill the back-office, bloated fee structures of Wall Street. That's great for gold, because you want to get rid of the machinery keeping its price down.
Interviewer: Where could gold head if that weren't the case?
Max Keiser: If you look at the gold chart, it should in theory track the growth of debt. That relationship was severed about seven years ago. Gold suddenly went flat and entered a bear market, but debt kept growing at a 45-degree angle. So gold should at least be back where it should be without all this manipulation. That would imply a gold price of, I haven't checked my numbers recently, but at least four or five thousand, somewhere in that range.
Interviewer: You also brought Jim Rickards into it in a tweet. You said he says gold needs to get to ten thousand to clear global debt, and you said to substitute Bitcoin.
Max Keiser: Rickards is the biggest nemesis of Bitcoin and the gold bugs in this space. We keep our debates friendly, but underneath there's a lot of tension, because he realizes his whole worldview is being crushed, and Bitcoin is about to kill everything he believes in and holds sacred. He makes the point that world debt is in the multi-hundred-trillion range, and the way to clear it is to go back to what's been done many times before: go back to a gold standard. I remember the Bretton Woods agreement, where they architected a global currency grid and backed dollars with gold, with a historic relationship between gold and world trade. He says that to clear this debt, you'd have to raise the price of gold and make things reserve-backed again, buy gold, and that this would bring in the inflation needed to stop the horrible deflation going on. When you bring those two forces together, you're talking about a ten-thousand-dollar-per-ounce gold price.
That makes a lot of sense analytically, and it would be great if we were living in the 1930s, 40s, or 50s. Jim seems stuck in that period. He hasn't crossed over into the 21st century, which is a nice place. Using that same logic, if he were to clear everything in Bitcoin, he'd come up with a multi-million-dollar price per Bitcoin.
There are two concepts I want to bring to your attention. One is called Bitcoinization, and the other is the Bitcoin black hole. The Bitcoin black hole means Bitcoin is sucking in all these horrible fiat money, stocks, bonds, and securities. It's drawing cash out of all these fiat-based assets. In fact, the US dollar is in a hyperinflationary collapse against Bitcoin as we speak. Rickards said we'd see how Bitcoin performs in a crisis. The crisis is right now, and Bitcoin is performing brilliantly today. The crisis is that fiat money is collapsing. That's the crisis Jim Rickards predicted, and it's happening now.
Interviewer: So for you, Bitcoin has replaced gold as a safe haven?
Max Keiser: Bitcoin is equal to gold as a safe haven without any question, and you can argue it's superior. It fulfills the four major characteristics of gold that Isaac Newton and Aristotle believed were key for a reserve currency: scarcity, fungibility, portability, and desirability. It has all of those, and it also has something added, which is that it's transforming the very nature of economics itself. It's like a Ouija board, oh my god, it's so much fun. We've got to cut it off there, but I appreciate you joining us.
Interviewer: Thank you so much, Max. My pleasure. Thanks for having me. We'll have more for you, so be sure to stay tuned.
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