저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리의 16억 달러 약세 베팅 보도는 명목 노출 기준 수치이며, 과장된 공포로 해석할 필요는 없다는 취지다. 버리가 S&P500 및 나스닥100 기반 풋옵션에 각각 약 8.66억 달러, 7.39억 달러를 투입했다는 SEC 보고가 보도됐고, 이를 포트폴리오의 90% 이상이라고 전한 기사도 있다. 진행자는 16억 달러가 실제 투입 자금이 아니라 계약의 명목가치(notional exposure)일 가능성이 크다고 설명하며, 옵션 만기·프리미엄·실제 지출 금액을 함께 봐야 한다고 강조한다. 버리가 주택시장 붕괴를 맞힌 전력이 있다고 해서 앞으로도 시장 붕괴를 정확히 맞힌다는 보장은 없다고 경고한다. 과거 몇 년간 버리가 주식시장 폭락을 예견했지만 시장은 오히려 상승했고, 최근 해는 주식시장에 매우 좋은 해였다고 언급한다. 시장은 합리성을 오래 유지하지 못할 수도 있다는 격언을 인용하며, 개인투자자가 버리의 숏 포지션을 따라 할 필요는 없다고 조언한다. 진행자 본인은 공매도나 옵션 거래를 하지 않으며, 특히 특정 기업의 하락에 베팅하는 것이 사람들의 일자리와 생계에 피해를 준다는 이유로 불편함을 느낀다고 밝힌다. 결론적으로 버리의 약세 베팅은 실제 규모가 과장됐을 수 있고, 시장 방향에 대한 단정은 위험하다는 것이 영상의 핵심 메시지다. 버리가 시장 붕괴를 맞힐 가능성도 틀릴 가능성도 모두 열려 있다는 중립적 태도를 유지한다. 영상은 특정 자산의 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 목표가나 기간을 제시하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
Michael burry has made it into the headlines yet again the man from The Big Short which is a pretty good movie actually where he bet against a market the housing market that no one really saw coming made a bunch of money became Super Famous and now everybody follows him and sees what he's doing at all times because everyone assumes that he's just insanely smart because he got something uh right that a lot of people weren't actually looking at but I don't think that that's really how it works you probably shouldn't be he's probably very very smart person but just because he got something right like that that could actually conflate with you and actually make you think you're smarter than you are and then you go on to make mistakes if you think that you can't be wrong or you're just early so it is something to be careful of but he's back in the headlines for shorting the stock market apparently this was the headline uh saying Michael burry of big short Fame just bet 1.6 billion dollars on a stock mark market crash and if you read that headline it seems insane like oh my God Michael burry 1.6 billion dollars that's crazy that's insane money and he bet that against the stock market oh my God but in reality he didn't necessarily bet all of that money and take this huge position uh I'm not an options expert or Trader I don't mess with options at all especially betting on things going down and puts and shorts and stuff I don't want to mess with that at all but there's some things going on where it's just not this 1.6 billion dollar number isn't necessarily the amount of money that he put in I think it's the like the notional value or nominal value of his contracts but if we look here you can see saying uh Murray is making his bearish bets against the S P 500 and NASDAQ 100 according to security Exchange Commission filings released Monday a very fun Scion Asset Management bought 866 million dollars in put options the right to sell an asset at a particular price against a fund that tracks the S P 500 and 739 million input options against a fund that tracks the NASDAQ 100 and apparently that is more than 90 percent of his portfolio which again I don't think that that's true I think he put a lot of his portfolio into these puts but it's not 90 percent and uh I mean I don't know the exact numbers and how much money but I'm sure someone could find that if you dig deep enough but to break down kind of the math behind this type of stuff I like this here so this is you know someone on Twitter uh the Michael Berry stock Trader but you can see this saying uh you know Michael Berry short of the market 1.6 billion saying the same things and it's 93 of his portfolio uh but Bill Leclair says this is reporting notional uh derivative exposure I can buy 10 390 spy puts expiring Friday each costing 2 cents for 200 and would give me 448 million dollars of notional exposure the numbers can be uh kind of moved around and looked like a lot much larger position than it actually is in this example you know you put in 200 for 440 million dollars worth of uh exposure now I'm not an options expert or Trader I don't go into any of that stuff so to know the ins and outs of everything here you know it's it's beyond me it's far beyond me but basically what I would take from this is that Michael burry is 1.6 billion dollars the big number that everyone's looking at to say oh my God he shorted the stock market with 90 plus percent of his portfolio it's the end he was right about the housing market this is the end the stock market's crashing it's over oh my God it's just not something to be that crazy about because of how like what are his contracts what's the expiry how much do they cost what money they put in what is the exposure that he has because of that so there's a lot of questions to ask than just looking at the 1.6 billion saying that's it the Market's over it's done we've had our run it's time to hang it up stocks are crashing and I think that you know Michael burry being this famous guy who got the housing market thing right right some a market that crashed that nobody was expecting to crash he got that right and he was even had Kickback against investors and people who he was using their money to short the market they didn't want to be involved in it they were mad at him because he was losing a lot of money up until the market crashed because the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent that's a saying for a reason and it's why I don't mess with shorting or options at all you know maybe if you have some fun and throw a little bit of money around and see what happens uh but I don't mess with any of that especially shorting just because I don't like betting on things going down even if it's an obvious trade betting on something to go down feels really bad it feels bad to bet on something to go down where people get hurt right if a company goes down in value and it's collapsing goes bankrupt stuff people lose jobs people get hurt and it's just not worth it right it's not worth being in that space and celebrating people losing their jobs and getting hurt well you make money it doesn't make sense I don't like that I would rather bet on something going up in value where everybody wins right everyone working for the company gets to make more money gets to secure their job you get to make money because the stock goes up because your asset goes up so I'd much rather do that than short anything but as for Michael burry shorting the stock market not necessarily 100 True he's definitely you know bought some puts and who really knows the exact number maybe he's put a lot of money a decent amount of money like tens of Millions dollars maybe even hundreds of millions of dollars but it's not billions of dollars and you know could he be right maybe could he be wrong maybe who are you who actually knows uh and just because markets went up a lot the S P's had a very good year the NASDAQ has a great year uh doesn't mean necessarily that betting against them is the good the best thing to do then because like you said the stock market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent so if that stuff starts turning around and going up again now you're losing tons of money and no one wants to really deal with that right so we'll see how this all plays out uh it is something that retail investors I don't think should follow Michael burry's example uh seeing him talk about this and seeing like when he got this one thing right that no one else saw was gonna happen and he made a ton of money he's got to be right that is a very dangerous mindset to have because you stop looking at things objectively and start looking at things just because someone was uh very smart in the past and got something right doesn't necessarily mean that they're going to do that again and matter of fact it almost means the opposite we've seen Michael burry calling for the last few years that Stock's gonna crash things are going to be terrible oh my God it's over it's game over good luck sell everything but they didn't crash they went up actually one of the best years for the stock market was this year so you know just because he is smart and got something right a little while ago doesn't mean he's gonna get every caller right that's gonna do it for this video as always don't just smash that button and subscribe and I'll see you guys in my next video
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