저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
데이터센터 수요로 메모리 반도체 기업(Micron, SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital)의 마진이 역대급으로 올랐고, 장기 공급계약으로 이익이 수년간 잠겨 있어 주가가 더 오를 수 있다고 주장. 메모리 공급 부족이 지속되고 과잉 투자는 당장 오지 않을 것이라 보며, Micron은 자선재단을 통해 매수했고 추가 상승 여지를 봄. 반면 Microsoft는 단기 차익실현 가능성을 언급하고 장기 보유 쪽으로 견해를 밝힘. 근거: 마진 Seagate 52%(전년 37%), WDC 54%(41%), SanDisk 85%(26%), Micron 85%(39%); Micron PER 약 7배(FY27), SanDisk 약 8배.
다듬은 글
ka. Well, folks, my friends, I'm just trying to save you somxplain. So call me at 1-800-743-CNBC. Tweet me @JimCramer. This market surprises me almost every day. This weekend, in my regular analysis piece for CNBC Investing Club members, I marveled at how the same memory stocks keep going up and up.
Many have stayed away because they think they have already missed these movements. So, I have to ask: what if not? So, today the Dow fell 273 points, a decrease of 0.52%. The Nasdaq lost 0.36%. It's actually been a pretty unpleasant session, mostly due to rising oil prices and interest rates. I want to explain how these great movements happen and why they may not be over yet.
In the foreground are companies that produce memory and data storage products used in data centers. SanDisk has grown 653% since the beginning of the year. Seagate jumped 261%, Micron jumped 254%, and Western Digital jumped 211%. These movements are simply incredible and definitely crazy. These memory manufacturer stocks have become risky.
For decades, they were risky stocks with ups and downs. There were periods of impressive growth followed by terrible declines that wiped out all your profits and more. I've always found management teams in this business to be financially suicidal because they built too much in the good times, sowing the seeds of their own downfall when things got worse.
I've always been reluctant to recommend them to you because of these wild cycles of ups and downs . And then data centers came along, and the world said everything changed for them. The demand for memory chips now seemed endless. All of these companies have learned a collective lesson. This time they're not building too much.
They want the deficit to continue. Memory is in such short supply that Elon Musk is sounding the alarm, saying it has become a major obstacle to the growth of data centers. Meanwhile, memory manufacturers have adopted new business models with long-term agreements that lock in huge gross profits for many years to come with customers.
They essentially only build to order. They've raised prices to the point where Apple is complaining that it's making your new phone more expensive. Can we trust these companies and their stocks? Now some of them are buying up huge amounts of shares on the open market. SanDisk is conducting a $15.5 billion buyback.
Seagate said it will carry out a $ 5 billion buyback announced this year. Western Digital authorized a $ 4 billion buyback earlier this year. They take this money and give it to you, the shareholders, instead of investing in new capacity. Only Micron does not conduct buybacks. Darkly. Previously, these were smaller- cap stocks, but in the two years since the serious deployment of data centers began, everything has changed.
I want you to hear about these impressive achievements. When SanDisk spun off from Western Digital 18 months ago, it was a $7 billion company. It is now a company worth $262 billion . Market capitalization grew from $21 billion to $225 billion over the same period. House of pleasure. Western Digital was worth $17 billion, and now it's worth $185 billion.
Only Micron was significant at 106 billion, and now it's a trillionaire. It was easy. And you wonder why I think it's worth owning individual stocks alongside index funds. You might think that these memory stocks have already gone too high. This is a common opinion we hear. But their profits, which are huge, are largely locked in for years to come thanks to these deals.
Seagate's gross margin in the last quarter was 52%—a record. Last year it was 37%. Western Digital's gross margin was 54%, compared to 41% a year ago. This is incredible stuff, people. SanDisk's gross margin increased from 26% to 85% year-over-year. Micron reached 85% versus 39%. These are monumental numbers, staggering, unheard of.
I remember if Intel could achieve a gross margin of 64%, that would be amazing. Now listen to what these guys are doing. It is difficult for people to comprehend this endless demand for memory. They don't believe that customer deals will hold up. Their biggest fear is that Samsung will break agreements and build factories to flood the market with supply.
Of course, it could happen, but not anytime soon . Building factories takes too much time. And look, that's why Micron is selling for just seven times its expected fiscal 2027 earnings. SanDisk trades at eight times forward earnings. If we look at fiscal year 2028, Western Digital has a score of 16, and Seagate has a score of 17.
Overall, these stocks are cheaper than the market because no one believes them. No one. Well, maybe some. People make fortunes. Last week, we bought a stake in Micron for a charitable foundation because I truly believe that this industry has changed for the better. With that in mind, I admit that I'm uncomfortable buying stocks that have risen so much.
Luckily, we bought them at a deep discount, as at that time they were trading at the prices of Korean Samsung and SK Hynix, not Seagate, Western Digital, or SanDisk. The timing was perfect. Club members should be satisfied. Although at the time I thought I was risking everything, and of course I was worried that they might continue to fall.
You see, I do n't really know anyone who would be comfortable buying stocks at such a peak. I consider Micron more of a growth stock than others. So I can convince myself that maybe it wasn't just the production restrictions that caused the price to rise. But we all know that this memory deficit has to end someday.
I do n't deny that. However, I have doubts about the timing of any downturn. I think Micron could double again before the boom ends. So, in my opinion , there is no slowdown in the operation of data centers . I know it's a risky statement, but these long-term deals are simply spectacular for Micron's margins.
Hey, and by the way, listen here. Later this week, we're heading to Micron to interview CEO Sanjay Mehrotra at their R& D facility in Idaho. Great, it's short for "factory." Not really, but I like it. I think it will be interesting. Don't miss it. I'm already waiting, I can't wait. This has to be it, it will be incredible.
Of course, we know I need to get steel-toed boots. I think I have them . Of course, we know that there is a lot of resistance to the construction of new facilities right now. Uh, there may be some memory limitations. However, I think there are many cities that want them. Such stories are too positive.
They don't fit into the negative narrative. Believe me, the media loves to report on the negative because it attracts attention, or at least that's what they think. When I see their numbers, I have to question them. But I am an exception. I'm also concerned about something that Michael Lynn Trainer, CEO of CoreWeave, said in an interview last week: that we can't possibly avoid overbuilding.
Double negative , sorry. How do we know when to stop if the demand is so high? Why do we even have to think about this now? And yet, I don't see excess construction happening anytime soon. So why not own one of the shares of memory companies? As I said at our investment club meeting last Thursday, you should watch the recording.
Old-timers always say that the phrase " this time it's different " is the most dangerous, because nothing really changes. And that's why Seagate, Western Digital, Sandisk, and Micron won't be able to change their nature. However, that attitude has scared you away from some of the most incredible profits I've seen in my career.
These are the same people who would never buy a Caterpillar. They would say : "I told you so." When Cisco reported and gave a weaker forecast, instead of thinking that it was a buying opportunity, I think. I would buy Cisco right now because of this negative. I don't think Caterpillar is a cyclical company at all right now.
By the way, their conclusion— again, these “ old-timers”—about situational awareness, you know, that case with the crazy, but not very creditable manager. They say he wasn't burdened with debt. They simply said he picked the wrong stocks. I'm saying that we need to free ourselves from these limitations and understand that sometimes things really are different.
Sometimes the opportunity is too big and you can't afford to miss it. No, this is not some nonsense. Oh, he's selling , man, go away. Very smart. But this whole shift to data centers has created a “ gold rush” that will turn many previously successful stocks into long-term growth leaders. This is a very rare metamorphosis , but it does happen.
Data centers, as we know from Amazon's experience, can be huge profit centers. The opportunities for these companies are so vast that it is not even worth thinking about curbing their expansion. There's too much money at stake, which means they need these components. Ask Jim Cramer about that. The best part is that with the exception of Nvidia and maybe AMD, these memory chip manufacturers are perhaps the most essential in this entire infrastructure.
Musk is right. Memory has become a "bottleneck" for these four companies. Well, you know what? This is pretty good if it stays that way . Of course, it's not their fault that the product is in such demand. The bottom line is that I recommend owning at least one. We chose Micron for the charitable foundation because of its growth, but others are less risky because they continue to return money to shareholders through share repurchases.
Ultimately, these steps are real. And while I admit I'm not the first, I don't really think I'm too late. Hey, why do n't we switch to Tony from my home state of New Jersey? Tony. Yes, and what do you think about Honeywell? Okay, Honeywell, I, I feel like I got pretty beat up here with this promotion.
I thought the division would be useful. Honeywell Aerospace was a complete disaster and I don't blame myself, I blame management. Uh, although I don't know why I should have trusted them. But Honeywell , regular Honeywell, listen, this is Demoupapoulos doing a good job. I'm saying when it drops, when someone else lowers the rating, and it's at 220, then I'll tell you to buy it.
Although I have it myself. Bill in Massachusetts. Bill. Jim, quick hello to Sean. Even when I have problems with my phone, he makes sure I get on the air. I'm a member of the club, and I really like it, bro. Man, I'm glad to hear that, Sean. I also congratulate the club. We, we had a pretty good meeting last week, and I'm glad you're a member of the club.
I would like others to join. Okay, what's new? Jim, being a member of the club is a pleasure. I just wanted to thank you for Vertiv Holdings, and I wanted to buy some more. What do you think, bro? Um, I think Vertiv is going to have a very, very strong year, and I'm not going to argue with you on that.
I think the order book is incredibly solid. Let's move on to Andrew from Ohio. Andrew. How are you, Jim ? Buya, Andrew. What is happening? So, Microsoft has obviously already priced in a bunch of AI benefits. At these levels, is it a buy, hold or perhaps time to take profit ? Okay, now, in the short term, you can take profit because the stock has jumped sharply, and I don't like parabolic movements.
In the long run, I think that might be a mistake , and I'll tell you why, because that quarter was so great that I really had to change my perspective from a soft supporter to a more determined one. And Satya Nadella, Amy Goode—they're great. What can I say? Let's move on to John from California. John.
Hello. John, what happened? I can tell you, it's 88. I like it. Thank you. I didn't even know I was alive then. That's good. What's new? In April, you talked about Abbott Labs. Labs. I thought you thought they were being punished. I did my research. They reached 81. I entered at 84. What should I do with what I have now?
Okay, people think this acquisition, you know, maybe it's not that good, but I disagree. I said Abbott is good. It's a pity that we didn't buy a couple of pharmaceutical stocks for our investment portfolio , which didn't make it to the queue. That's only 20 times earnings, which is still too cheap for Abbott.
I would wait. Okay, this data center movement has created a gold rush in stocks, and you know what? I don't think it's too late to put on your steel-toed boots and get out there. Of course? Just do your research and choose wisely. Listen to the club. We have a pretty good analysis from Jeff Marks. What will bring in the money tonight?
Airbnb shares have been rising rapidly recently. So what's behind this growth? I'm going to take a closer look at this travel company. Yes, look, I mentioned that we are seeing a strong rebound in stocks, but how sustainable is it? Well, I'm going to go off the charts to find out, and you called with the stocks I promised to get back to.
I'm fulfilling my part of the bargain. What about yours ? Join me as I delve into some of the names that have puzzled me as part of my " homework," and .
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