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now to another headliner tom lee who says it's no surprise stocks are struggling recently and uncle sam is to blame he joins me now post 9. it's all uncle sam's fault tax day and then everything's going to be cool uh i i hope things get better but yes this year april 18th is tax day it's an extraordinarily big tax hit we calculated what we estimate americans owed it's about 828 billion excluding crypto crypto's probably another 125 billion in taxes oh so about a trillion dollars went to uncle sam today no but you think literally like you get today out of the way and then there's a noticeable and notable impact in the market uh yes that i we we looked at years where the market was strong that two weeks into tax day our markets are weak there were a lot of folks caught off guard because they thought they had until october and of course they don't they have a april 18th so there was a bit of a frantic push and hopefully this uh takes away a indiscriminate selling okay we have to discuss this tweet of of yours where you agreed with somebody and honestly i saw this over the weekend i was like what i was like what is tom talking about so i came and did i was like we got to get tom leon gentleman by the name of john carter tweets the following the increasing shift out of financial assets into hard assets will soon turn into a panic move and you said agree 100.
and i'm like wait a minute tom lee comes on the show and he's bullish and he says the lows are in for the year and now you agree 100 that there's going to be a panic move out of financial assets i'll let you explain how that makes sense yes um well because not all assets are equities um there's a lot of financial assets that are terrible inflation hedges americans today own 55 trillion dollars worth of bonds and they are going to get their quarterly statements bonds are down 7 percent 25 percent of all 10-year periods since 1880 bonds have had a negative realized return we're probably entering another decade so there is going to be this we believe a panic out of bonds it'll go into income generating real assets and a big chunk we think will be tina which ends up in the stock market so i don't think people are gonna sell stocks to buy real assets but they probably will sell a lot of bonds so you're talking specifically about the bond market and money coming out because it doesn't say that when i read this i was like what that's right and and i probably intentionally left it a little vague just because you know it's the week and i was having a little fun um okay you knew i was going to call you like what in the world is this in all seriousness is seriousness you do have people suggesting that there is an alternative that tina's no longer tina that maybe bonds are an alternative to stocks uh yeah i mean it's it's getting to be very tricky now because we have inflation that is quite elevated we don't know if it's going to cool hopefully that's our base case that it cools and we know that bonds yields have moved to a level that people might want to actually own some bonds but the reality is if rates do creep up so we have positive real rates meaning you know the 10-year goes towards four or five uh your anybody who owns that 55 trillion dollar bond complex is going to lose another 10 so you're talking 5 trillion of realized losses if people don't rotate out of bonds what do you make of the fact that interest rates they they don't seem to want to go down right now that sort of throws a wrench into your bullish thesis if rates continue to rise one reason why the stock market seems to be having fits and starts with all due respect aside from uncle sam wanting uh his and her money yeah stocks have been tough uh you know we still think february 24th is the low i think there's a lot of fear in the equity markets towards the fed but i think one thing just for the viewers to be comfortable with is there's already been a huge adjustment in mortgages and auto sales are already rolling over and they're super sensitive to cost of financing so i think a lot of the work that the fed want to see is being done in the bond market ten-year at four percent is still a 25 p e for a bond so i think stocks can still have multiple expansion if rates move higher from here but of course 208 if we stay at 2 8 the rest of year i think stocks can rally pretty strong um bullard as we mentioned sitting with leesman as we speak having this conversation in which he said fed tightening is is in the market and that's been your sort of case for a while here's the conversation that that is going on as we speak and we've been bringing headlines because bullard uh certainly likes to make them uh is it all in the market uh i think that there has been a lot of the work done by the markets on behalf of the fed so i think the fed has been able to get long ends up this curve is steepened cost of financing's up we're already seeing some demand hit from higher gasoline so if the fed was worried about the s p going up 10 a month it hasn't been and that's i think really helped make the fed a lot more comfortable with where markets are and i know adam on just previously was saying and i kind of agree i think that there's a chance that the fed could actually make a device pivot towards the end of the year man i just don't get any feeling that anybody else is saying that but you adam parker and maybe three other people i could find on a street corner somewhere i mean where does that view come from well i think that uh over the weekend actually j morgan economists had a great study showing like the four types of inflationary items you know things that are persistent and things that take you know that are firming a lot of these sort of things like auto sales they're already starting to roll over and they were huge contributors to cpi so i think that if inflation on a headline basis is peaking or plateauing the markets get more comfortable with that and it takes a lot of the pressure off the fed as well but when you look at food and energy there's just no indication that it's backing off at all i was talking with adam and i know you saw yourself today if i pull it up natural gas has gotten everybody's attention it already had and now you go over eight dollars i mean doesn't that mean something uh yes i mean energy's energy even though it's not directly part of you know pce it is still a works its way into inflation uh yeah it hits people in the bottom line though yeah right it affects consumer sediment they see natural gas they see their bills going up they're worried about where food and energy prices already are that's right and i think one of the things that will we have to see is if it does soften the consumer it actually that becomes a feedback loop that actually weakens inflation and uh but you're right i mean the good news is in america food is you know not even nine percent of cpi unlike you know unlike rest of world where you know food is 40 of people's wallet i appreciate you coming down here and clarifying your tweet because it got me thinking unless we had to talk that's tom lee of fun strat we'll see you again soon up next grains and gains
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