저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee은 4월 공포 국면에서 보유·매수를 권고했고, AI 인프라 투자 사이클이 초기(첫 1/4~1/3 구간)라며 AI 침체론을 반박했다. AI 수익화는 응용 계층이 나타나면서 이어질 것이라 주장하고, 이더리움을 1971년 달러 금본위 이탈에 비견되는 장기 기회로 보며 비트마인 이머전 참여 배경을 설명했다. 자산 직접 가격 예측은 없고 AI·이더리움 장기 낙관 위주다.
다듬은 글
for coming on. Really appreciate it. Yeah, great to see you. Brian, I know a lot of people want your take on a video and we'll get all that stuff. How has it been in like in April you remain bullish even when everybody was running around with their hair on fire? Is it hard like do you get do people come at you and be like, "How could you be so bullish all the time, Tom Lee?"
Uh, yeah. I think that we get more criticism than positive feedback to any of our views. I mean, if someone follows us on social media like Twitter or if you look at the comments on our YouTube clips or even sometimes unrequested inbound emails to our firm, usually it's criticism. Yeah. It's amazing what people can do with when it's anonymous, right?
And they write in whatever. But that those people, you've been right. I mean, you've been bullish, you've stayed long, you've stayed strong. What are you seeing maybe that some others are missing? I don't know. Uh well I think too many people are are tied to their own biases. So like when markets were falling in February to April then in their own portfolios they were suffering damage and as you know that gets into people's sort of psychology because no one likes to lose money.
It's more painful to lose a dollar than to gain than the joy of gaining a dollar. But what we did was we took a step back and said you know with all the forces at work are we really going to drive the economy off a cliff? And if the answer was no, then we know that at those points of fear, that's when as hard as it is to to do is you either have to hold on or buy.
And that was our advice to clients. Yeah. And is there anything that you see in your research, Tom, that would imply that this momentum trade, if it is indeed a momentum trade, is going to end anytime soon? uh we don't we we you know for instance if we take AI as a thought uh and we let's say overlay something like the exponential growth of the wireless industry that was a 20-year period when the number of users went from 37 million subscribers to 7 billion uh you know we don't have 7 billion chat GBT users and we don't have 7 billion robots so I think if someone not yet that's right and so if someone's trying to ring the bell at the top for AI I they're underestimating how quickly penetration grows.
We're probably in the first quarter or first third of that cycle for AI. Okay, if I had to make if I had to take the other side of that trade and who am I? But we'll talk about this by the way with Christina parts and coming up soon is that people are spending a lot of money on AI, the metas of the world, the XAIs, the Googles.
They're buying a bunch of Nvidia chips. They're building out power data centers and all that's inflating the market. Are companies making any money from AI? They're spending a lot, but are they making any? Um, that's a great question. And because if they're not, maybe they stop spending so much. Well, um, I I think that when you look at the early builds of any new wave, and I think wireless is a good example, first is the infrastructure that gets laid.
So that's the LLMs and the the data centers. And then what happens is you have critical mass and so then the application layer starts to emerge. That's exactly what happened with wireless and then that's when not until 2007 that the iPhone came along 15 years into that cycle. So I I was thinking more like Global Crossingish.
Yes. Right. somebody paid. And if and if you're if you're really young, Global Crossing was a company that spent billions and billions and billions of dollars laying actual physical cable around the oceans, the world, to which eventually Global Crossing went bankrupt. But those cables are still being used today.
Thank god. Yeah. All that fiber they spent that money to do that even though it sort of cost them the corporate entity. There's you're not seeing any of that now. That's right. And in the global crashing case, the second owner of the hotel made a lot of money. Yeah. So I think that we're now at the phase where we're going to be thinking about things of like security around AI, you know, proof of human or whatever and we're going to see companies leverage AI like the JP Morgans and the Goldman.
So there's another wave of opportunity coming where is it's exactly where what you're saying. We got to the point where AI is good enough that companies can really now actually improve their business strategy. So I think there's still a lot of positive to come. Yeah. And I I hate to say it because you never want to talk about job losses, but I think that companies we have a story later on in the show.
Companies may be able to use AI to shall we say they'll say rightize. I don't like that term, but streamline expenses. Let's move on very quickly. Bit mine Immersion Technologies, BMR been one of the hottest stocks in the world. I know they're in a quiet period. You're not we're not going to ask you about the details.
You're executive chairman, not operational CEO, but why did you get involved with this company? What did you see that made Tom Lee decide, huh, you know what? I'm going to join as executive chairman of a Las Vegas based company. Um, well, it all starts with a a view that Ethereum is probably one of the biggest macro opportunities for the next 10 to 15 years because it's the blockchain that is different than Bitcoin because it has smart contracts and and we see the convergence of two things there.
One is Wall Street really rearchitecting itself on the blockchain just like a 1971 moment when the dollar went off the gold standard and that created Wall Street's opportunities around synthetic dollars. Now Wall Street can create synthetic tokenized assets on Ethereum. The second why would they want to?
Well, there's one much better uh proof of identity and a proof of transaction. In other words, uh you can when you tokenize a a document, let's say you put a million page document on Ethereum, yep, a million pages. But if someone went in and changes one period, the hash breaks, you can't alter a record once it's on the blockchain.
Someone can go into any of these records at any of these companies, change trade. Yeah. Yeah. I never did it. You didn't buy that. Blockchain will say that that was changed. So, it's really a good way to secure information. Um, but that's also why AI is going to converge on Ethereum or a smart contract because in the future we might have a billion robots getting instructions.
We want to make sure So, quickly is is Bitmine kind of then an AI play? It's a digital infrastructure play because what the company's doing is acquiring Ethereum. It's proof of stake. So, it's securing the network and in exchange for that it's going to get a staking yield. But now that you're what they have the power law once you get enough Ethereum you can have an influence on sort of the development of the ecosystem.
So I it's really trying to get at the 1971 moment of Wall Street. It's a really interesting way to look at it. But you're an interesting guy and that's why we have you on because you are Tom Lee, not the drummer. Tom, thank you. Thank you. Appreciate that. All right. Now to the bond markets.
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