원문 보기
It's been over 5 years, 65 months of above 2% you know, inflation. But if we couldn't get down to two when oil prices were falling, how the hell are we going to get down to two when they're rising? All prices are going to keep going up because the government is going to keep creating inflation. Because politically they've got no they've got no alternative.
They can't accept the reality. That's why I don't believe that the Fed is going to hike rates next week. We're going to get um more inflation data and those numbers could easily come out much hotter than expected and if they are, look out. Uh because there could be some serious carnage in the bond market uh and then in the stock market.
We'll see what happens with the precious metals market. Please like and subscribe. A Fed that is still believing that inflation is headed down to 2%. Why would that be? If inflation didn't even go down to 2% and again, I'm not talking about real inflation, which is the expansion of the money supply.
I'm talking about the CPI, which the government likes to point to, right? Consumer prices. But if consumer prices never got down to where they were rising at Fed's 2% target. Man, it's it's been over 5 years, 65 months of above 2% you know, inflation. But if we couldn't get down to two when oil prices were falling, how the hell are we going to get down to two when they're rising?
And you know, I keep hearing uh the president's, you know, yes-men, uh you know, Scott Bessent on the Sunday morning uh shows confidently saying that when this Iran war is over, don't worry, oil's going to be $50 or $40 a barrel. I mean, this guy just lies. I mean, that that that's what everybody in the Trump administration does.
I guess they're told to lie, and that's what they do because the whole administration is is based on a lie. It's one lie after another. One of the lies is that, you know, this war is going to end. There's no end in sight. The Iran war began over 6 months ago. It started at the end of February. It's almost 6 and 1/2 months.
I think we're further away from victory now than we were when we first dropped the bombs. Inflation is going to wipe those out. And you can say, "Yeah, there's no downside in Treasuries uh because you're going to get your money back." Well, that's the same with nickels. You're going to get your nickel back.
But, you've already got 50% worth of appreciation. So, how many years are you going to have to clip a 5% coupon to get a 50% return? That's quite a few years. But, by the time you get that money, inflation will have eroded away the value of your Treasuries. Meanwhile, 5 years from now, who knows what these nickels are going to be worth because nickel prices are going to keep going up.
Copper prices are going to keep going up. All prices are going to keep going up because the government is going to keep creating inflation. Because politically, they've got no they've got no alternative. They can't accept the reality. That's why I don't believe uh that the Fed is going to hike rates next week.
Now, what I believe the strategy is to talk about raising rates, act as if you're going to raise rates, but never actually do it. Just like Trump. Talk as if you're going to do all these things and just don't follow through. Talk like you're going to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age and then come up with a reason not to do it.
So the Fed is always going to have a reason why they didn't hike rates this time. You know, there was some number, something that gave them hope that it looks like inflation is trending down to 2% but don't worry. Don't worry. If it comes in too hot, we're ready. We're ready to raise rates. Trust us, we will.
We'll do it. We're serious, right? We're going to hike rates and then and not do it. Because the the real problem is what does the Fed buy with a 25 basis point rate hike? Nothing. They're going to get nothing from that. It's not going to do anything about inflation because it's too little. The rate hikes need to be a lot bigger than 25 basis points and in fact if the Fed does hike by 25 basis points, what is the market going to think?
Oh, that's it? No, they're going to start pricing in the next 25 basis point rate hike. So if the Fed hikes rates 25 basis points, it's got to have to do it again. It's going to be in the same predicament that it's in now, only rates will be even higher. Which means bigger problem for stocks, bigger problem for real estate, bigger problem for the federal debt.
We're spending over 1.2 trillion dollars per um year on interest on the national debt now. Um and that's going to keep rising. By the time Trump leaves office, it's going to be 2 trillion. And that's if rates just stay where they are, just based on all the debt that has to roll over and all the new debt.
We're borrowing over 3 trillion dollars a year. So over the next 2 and 1/2 years, that's another what, 7, 8 trillion. Uh that's why I've said that there's a chance that if we go through a more serious recession in the second half of Trump's term, we could hit 50 trillion on the national debt before Trump finishes.
It's 40, you know, just over 40 now, but even the way it's projected, I think the official projections probably show it at about um 47 trillion by the time he finishes. So, we've got to pay interest on that extra 7 trillion that we're not paying interest on at all. Plus, we got to pay extra interest on all of those notes and bonds that mature between now and then that we're paying maybe 50 basis points in interest now because the money was borrowed when rates were really low.
And now we have to refinance it when the rates are much higher. And if the Fed actually does hike interest rates, then it compounds that problem. And we'll see what happens. We're going to get um more inflation data, and those numbers could easily come out much hotter than expected. And if they are, look out uh because there could be some serious carnage in the bond market uh and then in the stock market.
We'll see what happens with the precious metals market because what they typically do is go down. Like gold was down about 40 bucks today, and I think the main reason was the pressure being put on gold. They're down 46 bucks, closed at 43.58, but the pressure was building from the weakness in the bond market and the strength in the oil market and in the copper market, uh which was, you know, pushing up the odds of a of a rate hike uh next week.
Uh but we'll see how uh gold reacts uh to the hot inflation numbers if we get them. Ironically, if we get colder numbers, gold's going to soar if we get lower than expected because that's going to take the rate hikes completely off the table, if they're even on the table in the first place, which I don't really think they are.
Uh but if we get, you know, cooler inflation numbers, which will still be bad, just not as bad as they expect, uh then we could get a big move and the odds of a hike in September will come crashing down because the Fed will have the exact excuse that it's been looking for. But, if it's not that excuse, they'll come up with another one because they don't want to uh hike rates and and Trump made that clear.
I mean, Trump is still demanding uh that the Fed cut rates and even threatening uh to harm the economy if it doesn't. What's happening with the escalation of the war is helping to drive up these commodity prices like oil, uh like copper, like agricultural commodities. Uh all of this means much higher consumer prices uh when voters are are at the polls.
Just driving to the polls is going to be a lot more expensive uh than it was when they voted in 2024. Inflation is going to be the number one issue in 2026, just like it was the number one issue in 2024. Except now the inflation shoe is on the other foot. In 2024, everybody blamed the Democrats for the inflation.
That's why Trump was able to win. He won by promising to lower prices on day one. Well, prices are going to be much higher in November 2026 than they were in November 2024. And so, who are the voters going to blame for that? They're going to blame Trump, the man who promised lower prices, and they're going to blame every Republican who's running down ticket.
And what's the solution going to be? The democratic socialists. Why? They're promising lower prices. And they're, of course, blaming the high prices on greedy capitalists ripping you off, but they can also blame it on the tariffs, and that would be true. And they can also blame it on the war. And where did that come from?
Trump. Trump started the war. Trump imposed the tariffs, and all the Republicans supported him. So, they own this mess, and and so they're going to help be held accountable at the polls. Please like and subscribe. It cost the Jewish Zionist power structure in the United States an estimated 37 million dollars to expel Thomas Massie from office.
Now, what will it cost them to retain control of enough of the House and the Senate to prevent Donald Trump's removal from office? I I don't know. But, if it cost 37 million to expel just one member, and they have a lot of money. I mean, there are pots of money that they have been accumulating out there, and I'm talking about the Zionist Jewish uh power structure uh involving hundreds of millions of dollars that could be applied with the goal of preventing Donald Trump from being removed so that they can retain control of the United States government.
Now, they've already got it at this point because we know that 80% of the House and the Senate uh is effectively paid by the lobby to do what it wants. Please like and subscribe. You're talking about damage done to the Persian Gulf region and its infrastructure and it would require at least 10 years to recover.
Uh so, you're you're talking about a definite global level depression, and I think we're well on our way in that direction at this point as well. Uh now, one of the things that's kind of interesting is to watch Scott Bessent, and he's very sensitive to the bond market. Uh we're now way over 5% in the 30-year bonds.
This last bond sale was enormously expensive for us. Uh we're in a lot of trouble financially, and got best interest using every conceivable trick and illusion that he has in his bag to sort of postpone the inevitable financial collapse that I think is coming. I've always looked at because I I have great confidence and trust in what Jeffrey Gundlach and Luke Rowland and others talk about.
Uh I also look at this 5% barrier on the 10-year bond and and everybody makes it very clear when if you break that and you go over 5% uh yield on the 10-year bond, you're in uncharted territory and that could be catastrophic for us. Do you think we're getting close to that now? Yeah, this is the end of the petrodollar system which is I think in frankly this stage dead anyway.
Which just recycled dollars from the Persian Gulf and back into the United States. That's gone. You don't find anybody wants to invest in our debt. We sort of postponed a collapse in Japan and by doing so harmed Europe because we used Europe over courses of banker said to me the other day in Europe.
He said, "Who are we kidding? Europe and the dollar are the same thing. It's all dollars." I said, "Okay." I I think I think we're in a very fragile set of conditions right now financially. So, let me ask you this uh kind of a I I guess I don't know which one breaks first, Dan. Does it break here at home financially first or does it blow up in the Gulf and then break here financially?
I I don't know. We have a severe economic uh strain on us. What concerns do you have about the viability and the stability of the United States domestically? It cost the uh Jewish scientist power structure in the United States an estimated $37 million to expel Thomas Massie from office. Now, what will it cost them to retain control of enough of the House and the Senate to prevent Donald Trump's removal from office?
I don't know. But if it cost $37 million to expel just one member, and they have a lot of money. I mean, there are pots of money that they have been accumulating out there, and I'm talking about the Zionist Jewish power structure involving hundreds of millions of dollars that could be applied with the goal of preventing Donald Trump from being removed so that they can retain control of the United States government.
Now, they've already got it at this point because we know that 80% of the House and the Senate is effectively paid by the lobby to do what it wants. So, that that's a fact. You just just run through, look at the amounts of money that go in there. And it's amazing. Sometimes it's a lot of money, and sometimes it's not that much.
But members are so greedy for money and so desperate for money to stay in office that they'll do almost anything to keep it. So, I guess my assumption is that this election is probably not going to go well for Trump in particular. But the real issue is what about this lobby? Can it Can it retain control?
That you know, I think it it has a shot at doing so. I wouldn't write it off yet. Now, of course, that could change if the financial system crashes between now and November, and that's not an impossibility. I mean, if you listen to Ray Dalio and others, they'll say it could very easily happen. So, I I don't know. I don't have a clue. Oh.
Comments 0