저자: EmmanuelFinance · 외국인
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결론: 패스틀리(FSLY)는 실적 가이던스 하향과 최대 고객 틱톡 리스크로 급락했으나, 현 단계에서는 매수보다 주가 80달러 이하(이상적으로 75달러대) 하락 확인 후 진입을 고려하는 신중한 입장. [사업 구조] 패스틀리는 개발자가 보안·성능을 갖춘 디지털 경험을 전달하도록 돕는 엣지 클라우드 플랫폼을 IaaS 형태로 제공하며, 구독형 반복 매출 모델이다. [급락 원인] 3분기 매출 가이던스를 기존 7,350~7,550만 달러에서 7,000~7,100만 달러로 하향. 지정학적 불확실성, 최대 고객(틱톡)의 사용량 기대 미달, 일부 고객 사용량 감소가 이유로 제시됨. 미국 대통령의 틱톡 규제 움직임이 불확실성을 키움. [리스크 3가지] 첫째, 신규 고객 유치 실패 시 사업 타격(고비용 영업 필요). 둘째, 기존 고객의 사용량 증가 의존. 셋째, 매출 예측 실패 및 비용 관리 실패. [경쟁 구도] Cloudflare(4.5점), Amazon(4.3점), Akamai(3.8점), Microsoft Azure CDN(3.7점) 등 대형 경쟁사와 경쟁 중이며 품질 유지가 필수. [가격 흐름] 연초 약 21달러에서 82달러대까지 400% 이상 상승했으나, 6개월 기준으로는 6월 이후 상승분을 거의 반납. 월간 기준 하락. [재무 건전성] 현금 약 3억 8,400만 달러, 부채 거의 없음, 유동자산 5억 2,500만 달러 대비 유동부채 3,800만 달러로 유동비율 13배 이상. 자본 구조 양호. [수익성] 매출은 분기마다 성장했으나 아직 흑자 전환 전이며 순손실 축소가 필요. 이번 매출 하향으로 순손실 확대 우려. 잉여현금흐름은 적자. [진행자 입장] 주가 80달러 하회 시 진입 검토, 75달러대면 더 매력적이나 경쟁 및 틱톡 리스크로 신중. 투자 조언이 아닌 교육 목적임을 명시.
다듬은 글
what's going on investors my name's emmanuel and one of my favorite quotes from one of the most respected investors of all time benjamin graham is this in the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run it's a weigh-in machine so with that said in this video we are discussing fastly ticker symbol is fsly which took an absolute hammering last week and was down by over 33 and it was also down in yesterday's trading session however arc invest have been buying heavy they have been buying heavy into this dip i don't know about you but i don't want to miss out on an opportunity if there really is one but at the same time it's not a good strategy investing in companies that you don't understand so the objectives in this video are one we need to understand what fastly do as a business what problem they solve how they generate their revenue and two identify the three main risks associated to investing in this company as well as who their main competitors are three i want to identify who fastly's main client is four i want to go into detail regarding why they suffered a huge decline last week five i want to determine their financial strength and lastly number six determine whether we should now be greedy when others are fearful and whether it's time to start buying up fastly shares so we have a ton of information that we need to get through in this video but right before we jump into the analysis please don't forget to smash the like button it lets me know that you really enjoy this type of content and also if you are new to the channel then more stock analysis content all the stocks that i buy sell and that are on my watch list as well as any major stock related news with that said stay locked in watch until the end and let me know if you will be buying selling or if you're currently holding fastly shares so first of all what do fastly do and what problems do they actually solve and to answer this we'll take a quick look through their most recent annual report and page five gives us the answer and it reads developers are reinventing the way we live work and play online yet they repeatedly encounter innovation barriers when delivering modern digital experiences expectations for digital experiences are at an all-time high they must be fast secure and highly personalized if they aren't reliable end users simply take their business elsewhere okay so to summarize fastly has identified that developers are currently struggling with the innovation required to overcome certain obstacles and these obstacles will ultimately affect the end user's digital experience now to clarify the digital experiences that they are referring to is content delivery okay and the end users will expect fast performance high level of security and it has to be personalized so this is a simple of enough problem to understand in my view the question is how does fastly actually solve this problem and they highlight it here it says the challenge today is enabling developers to deliver a modern digital experience while simultaneously providing skill security and performance we built our edge cloud platform to solve this problem the edge cloud is a new category of infrastructure as a service that enables developers to build secure and deliver digital experiences at the edge of the internet so in that statement we have a greater understanding of how they solve the problem and also how they generate their revenue in the process so to summarize fastly created an edge cloud platform which they provide as an infrastructure as a service or iaas and this is similar to neoink's battery as a service which is baas or adobe sas which is software as a service business model so fastly are incorporating a similar business model which will generate reoccurring revenue and its infrastructure will enable developers to build secure and deliver that digital experiences that end users want so you can read further into the mechanics of how the edge cloud platform actually works by visiting their investor relations page and downloading their 2019 annual report okay so that's that now i want to draw your attention to the potential risks involved with this business and that has also been identified by management and is starting from page 20 of their annual report now they do mention a few risk factors but i have identified three that are critical in my view first of which is this if we are unable to attract new customers our business will be harmed and that's a fact this is a company that is solely dependent on ensuring almost 100 customer satisfaction at all cost because that will enable them to convince new customers to join their platform and this will become even clearer when we dive into who their main competitors are but the management have identified it here in the statement which reads to grow our business we must continue to attract new customers to do so we must successfully convince potential customers of the benefits and the value of our platform this may require significant and costly sales effort that are targeted at larger enterprises and senior management of these potential customers so the key word in this statement is costly sales efforts all right so the second key risk factor to this business is this our business depends on customers increasing their use of our platform and any loss of customers or decline in their use of our platform could harm our business now this is an important risk to the business and actually is a good segue into identifying who their main competitors are in the content delivery network space now according to g2.com fastly's top four main competitors are cloudfare which currently has a 4.5 out of 5 star rating then next you have the amazing amazon cloud font i mean amazon are in everything they don't play any games man if any company truly has a monopoly in this day and age it has to be amazon it has to be amazon and that's coming from someone who is an investor in amazon but nevertheless amazon is a competitor and currently has a 4.3 rating then you have akamai which i've never really heard of before and it has a 3.8 rating then you have the og you have microsoft via their azure cdn service and that has a 3.7 rating so it's safe to say that fastly has no shortage of direct competitors and some of these competitors are really really big names so they will all be competing to attract the same clients and the quality of the content delivery has to remain spot on at all times at all costs or they will lose customers customers will just go elsewhere and think about it if they lose customers that means they will lose revenue and now that we're on the topic of revenue the third important risk factor in my opinion and one which i believe combined with the second risk factor are both solely responsible for fastly's current decline and it's this if we fail to forecast our revenue accurately or if we fail to manage our expenditures our operating results could be adversely affected now fastly had a press release last week which provided guidance for their third quarter revenue results and in this press release they said on october 28th fastly will release full third quarter 2020 financial results along with the fourth quarter and full year 2020 guidance which will also include revenue from signal sciences now here's where things really start to heat up fastly now expects their third quarter 2020 total revenue of 70 to 71 million dollars compared to its previous guidance of 73.5 to 75.5 million dollars now the reason for the revised guidance on the expected revenue was due to the impact of uncertain geopolitical environment usage of fastly's platform by its previously disclosed largest customer did not meet expectations during the latter part of the third quarter a few customers had lower usage than fastly estimated so to summarize fastly failed to forecast revenues correctly with a revised five percent reduction due to geopolitical reasons which corresponds to the second risk which we already identified from last year's annual reports and they also said that customers had lower usage than fastly had estimated as well as usage of farsi's platform from its largest clients did not meet expectation so this is actually quite incredible but also not really surprising because fastly's largest client is ticktock and if you've been and if you've been following the news recently the u.s president isn't a huge fan of tick tock so this is largely why fastly suffered a huge sell-off last week now tik tok itself has already been banned in india and pakistan and the uk government pretty much has bigger fish to fry at this point with brexit and nothing has really come from it in from the uk standpoint and i'm not entirely sure where the us is with tick with the tick tock deal right now it was announced that oracle and walmart won the deal and that oracle will now create a tick tock global us company with a 12.5 stake and walmart will hold a 7.5 stake which is all well and good however has the damage already been done for fastly's biggest client i mean can users trust tick tock right now and you know will users return back to tick tock's platform boosting the usage of fastest platform once again and the answer to that question is i don't know you know social media is not a very forgiving platform and there is very little loyalty between platforms you know content creators can just as easily move on to their next platform and they will take all of their followers with them and you know instagram has the new instagram reels now which is pretty much the same as tick tock so where does that actually leave fastly as a business well i want us to take a look at their current price action and get an idea of the bigger picture then we'll take a look at their current financials before i can reach a conclusion because we need to understand their financial health so year-to-date this stock has been on an absolute tear all right the stock is up the stock is up well over 400 which is absolutely insane and at the start of january you could have picked up shares of fastly for 21 and now it's trading at 82 and some change so looking at the bigger picture the 30 decline from last week doesn't actually seem too bad but when you look at it from a six months time frame stock has pretty much given back all of its gain from june this year in which it's a bit of a ball leg to see months of gains vanish within a week and from a monthly time frame it's of course down for the month so that's the price action so let's take a look at the financial health of the company and as you can see their total revenue has only been going in one direction they have simply been crushing it quarter after quarter after quarter from a revenue standpoint as an investor this is beautiful to see however this company has yet to turn a profit which isn't uncommon to see in a growth stock but what you would like to see in a growth stock is the net losses reducing each quarter and you know a great example of this is square so fastly's net losses seems to be getting greater and you can only imagine with the company now revising its revenues which will also be the first quarter that fastly hasn't grown its revenues by the way net losses are going to be far greater and i think that investors know this and actually low-key anticipating this which is precisely why many investors are now seeing this as an opportunity to start taking their profits or cutting their losses into this weakness hence the sharp price drop now with that said they do have a phenomenal balance sheet and as of their most recent quarter they have 384 million dollars in cash so they pretty much have no debt because they could quite easily clear that off if they wanted to but what's even more impressive is that the value of their total current assets is sitting at 525 million dollars whilst the total current liabilities is all is only 38 million dollars which is nothing short of amazing so that means that they have a current ratio of above 13 which is absolutely insane their stockholder equity has also drastically improved which is an indicator that their assets are growing much faster than their liabilities and as you can see judging from their balance sheet fastly greatly benefited from the roney rona and it's not hard to see why their share price did shoot up drastically year to date so no question fastly currently does have an amazing balance sheet but their net losses do need to start heading in the opposite direction to where it is now however i personally don't think that will happen anytime soon and as a result they do have a negative free cash flow position so with all that we've discussed and covered in this video it's now the time for us to be greedy when others are clearly fearful with this stock so for me personally i would like to see the stock drop below 80 before i really consider starting a position it has had a crazy run-up this year and and to be honest i would love it even more if it were to drop to the 75 dollar range because as we've seen this stock is already up crazy this year and it's extremely concerning regarding their situation around their largest client which is tick-tock plus the likes of amazon and microsoft are pretty much hot on fastly's heels right now and that does make me nervous and i really do question how strong of a malt fastly actually has so that's what i currently think about fastly let me know in the comments section what your stance is with fastly are you currently a fastly shareholder and if you are are you selling or are you buying more and if not are you looking to buy in and if so what price are you looking to buy in at but whatever it is whatever your thoughts are let me know in the comments section below but with all that said or in any company i've said it before and i'll continue to say it again i am not a financial advisor so please view my content as purely educational and not invest in advice and if you do want to learn about investing in stocks there are some useful links free shares if you do sign up using the if you enjoyed today's content e thank you so much for watching and i'll catch you in the next one peace you
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