원문 보기
our next guest uh coined the term Bond vigilantes he said that they did back off last week but could return over concerns about the federal deficit and political gridlock join us now as Ed yardeni president of yardeni research he also uh said Ed that maybe the uh maybe it doesn't supplant uh The Angst about interest rates but oil with the geopolitical concerns oil could uh could become more important in determining which direction the markets are moving moving at this point but you still think bonds are we could see the Vigilantes come back with 33 trillion in debt well yeah I think so they're not necessarily done voicing their concerns about debt and the deficit um just because we had this tremendous rally in the bond market last week it doesn't mean that problem's gone away um clearly the one of the main reasons that uh we had that rally last week is the treasury uh recognized that the B Market wasn't happy with all the supply and they cut back on the supply so uh that that was just a very shortterm response to to that as in addition we've had some weak economic indicators and it looks like the FED is done so uh the bond vigilan are not the only players in this bond market clearly but uh they're not gone well it's nice to be able to cut back on Supply but that doesn't that's not going to work forever there's going to be a certain there's going to be a certain amount of Supply when you're talking about $33 trillion there's going to be a large Supply that needs to be issued well Absol absolutely I mean look janed alen could just I guess Finance everything in the bill market and uh hope that short-term rates go down rather than go up or or stay high but the reality is uh one of the most disturbing things about the deficit and the debt is that it's uh kind of compounding as interest rates have gone up because we've got so much debt um we're seeing that one of the biggest outlays now in the government is just pay paying interest and so that's not going to go away you know they're going to have to continue to pay their interest we haven't seen much in terms of um I mean the oil Market has been oblivious to the the biggest events in the Middle East in 40 years probably why well you know it's it's it's it is a bit of a heads scratcher because because there is a lot of concerns that uh the war between Hamas and Israel will turn into a regional War uh I guess the market figures that if somehow Iran's uh o oil production or oil exports get disrupted I mean You' kind of imagine that the Biden Administration which loosened up on uh some of the restrictions on uh on the on sanctions on the oil coming out of Iran that they would tighten things up pretty aggressively here but I guess everybody figures that the Saudis would start start pumping some more to keep the price of weal from going up I think the Saudi learned uh so far this year that the market just isn't going to be able to handle a $100 oil uh China's weak Europe's weak the US uh is relatively strong but maybe slowing down somewhat uh and then of course the consumers demonstrated that U you know once the price of gasoline goes up guess what they drive less and a lot of people are working from home so they they don't have to drive as much so I think you're making a very good point about watching the oil price is an indicator of just uh how uh concerning the Middle East war is in terms of its geopolitical impact but also in terms of its economic impact well we never know whether it's Supply or it's always both obviously but whenever it moves one way or the other we you know we're not sure what to attribute it to at this point you still think the FED can successfully land this baby and and it'll be a soft Landing yeah I think that's been the contrary scenario no nobody ever believes the fed's going to get it right um as long as they don't say mission accomplished I think will be okay as long as they a banner is saying it's one thing but yeah so I I think they're actually getting it I don't want to say mission accomplished but I think they're they're getting their soft landing and then what is that post soft Landing look like 2% I mean with 33 trillion in debt and and higher permanent higher interest rates let's say what what does that get us well right now as you said uh the uh the obvious conclusion is not much uh doesn't I don't think it gives us a recession but it's uh certainly hard to see how the economy keeps that pace of the third quarter up you know 4.9% is just not sustainable given the points you just made uh however um one thing I'm quite optimistic about is productivity productivity could be the the surprising variable surp inly positive variable it was very strong in the third quarter following a quite strong fourth as second quarter productivity number and uh as we all know there's a labor shortage and companies are solving that problem with technology so productivity could be the surprising variable that gives us better than 2% growth
댓글 0