저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
채권 자경단(Bond vigilantes)의 우려는 아직 끝나지 않았으며, 지난주 채권 랠리는 재무부의 발행 축소라는 단기 조치와 약한 경기지표 때문이라 문제가 해결된 것은 아니라는 진단. 국가부채 33조 달러와 금리 상승이 맞물려 이자지출이 정부 최대 지출 항목 중 하나가 되었고, 이 구조는 쉽게 사라지지 않는다는 주장. 중동 전쟁이 지역 분쟁으로 번질 우려가 크지만 유가는 그 충격을 거의 반영하지 않았다고 지적. 이란 석유 공급 차질 시 바이든 행정부가 제재를 강화할 가능성과 사우디가 증산으로 가격을 억제할 가능성을 언급. 중국·유럽 경기 둔화와 미국의 완만한 감속 속에서 $100 유가는 시장이 감당하기 어렵다는 인식. 유가는 공급과 수요 중 어느 쪽 요인인지 판단이 어려워 지정학 리스크와 경기 영향을 함께 봐야 한다는 입장. 연준이 연착륙에 성공할 가능성이 높다고 보며, 다만 연준이 성공을 선언하는 것은 피해야 한다고 언급. 고부채와 높은 영구 금리 환경에서도 침체는 오지 않겠지만 3분기 4.9% 성장률은 지속 불가능하다고 평가. 낙관 요인으로 생산성 향상을 꼽았다. 노동력 부족을 기술로 해결하는 기업들 덕분에 생산성이 예상 밖의 긍정 변수가 되어 2% 이상 성장을 가능케 할 수 있다는 전망.
다듬은 글
our next guest uh coined the term Bond vigilantes he said that they did back off last week but could return over concerns about the federal deficit and political gridlock join us now as Ed yardeni president of yardeni research he also uh said Ed that maybe the uh maybe it doesn't supplant uh The Angst about interest rates but oil with the geopolitical concerns oil could uh could become more important in determining which direction the markets are moving moving at this point but you still think bonds are we could see the Vigilantes come back with 33 trillion in debt well yeah I think so they're not necessarily done voicing their concerns about debt and the deficit um just because we had this tremendous rally in the bond market last week it doesn't mean that problem's gone away um clearly the one of the main reasons that uh we had that rally last week is the treasury uh recognized that the B Market wasn't happy with all the supply and they cut back on the supply so uh that that was just a very shortterm response to to that as in addition we've had some weak economic indicators and it looks like the FED is done so uh the bond vigilan are not the only players in this bond market clearly but uh they're not gone well it's nice to be able to cut back on Supply but that doesn't that's not going to work forever there's going to be a certain there's going to be a certain amount of Supply when you're talking about $33 trillion there's going to be a large Supply that needs to be issued well Absol absolutely I mean look janed alen could just I guess Finance everything in the bill market and uh hope that short-term rates go down rather than go up or or stay high but the reality is uh one of the most disturbing things about the deficit and the debt is that it's uh kind of compounding as interest rates have gone up because we've got so much debt um we're seeing that one of the biggest outlays now in the government is just pay paying interest and so that's not going to go away you know they're going to have to continue to pay their interest we haven't seen much in terms of um I mean the oil Market has been oblivious to the the biggest events in the Middle East in 40 years probably why well you know it's it's it's it is a bit of a heads scratcher because because there is a lot of concerns that uh the war between Hamas and Israel will turn into a regional War uh I guess the market figures that if somehow Iran's uh o oil production or oil exports get disrupted I mean You' kind of imagine that the Biden Administration which loosened up on uh some of the restrictions on uh on the on sanctions on the oil coming out of Iran that they would tighten things up pretty aggressively here but I guess everybody figures that the Saudis would start start pumping some more to keep the price of weal from going up I think the Saudi learned uh so far this year that the market just isn't going to be able to handle a $100 oil uh China's weak Europe's weak the US uh is relatively strong but maybe slowing down somewhat uh and then of course the consumers demonstrated that U you know once the price of gasoline goes up guess what they drive less and a lot of people are working from home so they they don't have to drive as much so I think you're making a very good point about watching the oil price is an indicator of just uh how uh concerning the Middle East war is in terms of its geopolitical impact but also in terms of its economic impact well we never know whether it's Supply or it's always both obviously but whenever it moves one way or the other we you know we're not sure what to attribute it to at this point you still think the FED can successfully land this baby and and it'll be a soft Landing yeah I think that's been the contrary scenario no nobody ever believes the fed's going to get it right um as long as they don't say mission accomplished I think will be okay as long as they a banner is saying it's one thing but yeah so I I think they're actually getting it I don't want to say mission accomplished but I think they're they're getting their soft landing and then what is that post soft Landing look like 2% I mean with 33 trillion in debt and and higher permanent higher interest rates let's say what what does that get us well right now as you said uh the uh the obvious conclusion is not much uh doesn't I don't think it gives us a recession but it's uh certainly hard to see how the economy keeps that pace of the third quarter up you know 4.9% is just not sustainable given the points you just made uh however um one thing I'm quite optimistic about is productivity productivity could be the the surprising variable surp inly positive variable it was very strong in the third quarter following a quite strong fourth as second quarter productivity number and uh as we all know there's a labor shortage and companies are solving that problem with technology so productivity could be the surprising variable that gives us better than 2% growth
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