저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 미국 경제는 인플레이션과 경기침체 사이에서 방향을 정하지 못한 혼란 상태이며, 캐시 우드는 소비지표 등을 근거로 가치주 로테이션이 언젠가 성장주 쪽으로 되돌아갈 것이라고 본다. 경기 전망: 연준 지표상 미국 경제가 2분기 연속 마이너스 성장을 향할 수 있다는 우려가 커졌고, 주식시장은 약세장에 진입한 상태로 언급된다. 월스트리트 일부는 소비 지출과 고용 성장이 경기침체를 피하게 할 것으로 본다. 기업 리더 발언: 일론 머스크는 경제에 대해 매우 나쁜 느낌을 가진다고 했고, 제이미 다이먼(JP모건)은 허리케인이 다가온다고 경고했다. 골드만삭스 사장은 현 환경을 전례 없는 충격의 합류로 묘사했다. 캐시 우드는 이들이 경제 스트레스를 보고 있다고 해석한다. 거시 지표: 4월 개인소비지출(PCE)은 명목 0.9%, 근원 0.7%로 강했지만, 미시간대 소비자심리지수는 역대 저점 수준으로 하락했다. 소비자신용 증가폭(3월 370억 달러, 4월 520억 달러)도 평소(약 60~50억 달러)보다 훨씬 커서 혼란스럽다고 평가한다. 섹터 흐름: 주택과 자동차 판매는 약 20% 감소해 연착륙이 아니라고 주장한다. 에너지·소재·유틸리티 등 가치 섹터가 강세이며, 재정·통화정책이 계속 긴축되면 언젠가 성장주로 다시 로테이션이 일어날 것으로 본다. 인플레이션: 소비자물가 8.6%로 40년 만의 상승폭이며 휘발유 가격이 사상 최고 수준이다. 러시아의 우크라이나 침공과 공급망 문제가 원인으로 거론되며, 바이든 행정부의 대응이 효과를 못 보고 있다고 언급된다. 연준 전망: 볼커 시절 금리 인상과 비교하며, 현재 연준 기준금리가 과거 저금리 기간 이후 크게 오르고 있어 경기에 충격이 될 수 있다고 본다. 다만 PCE 디플레이터 전월비 0.2%로 인플레이션 정점 신호가 나타났고, 연준이 이를 안도 요인으로 삼아야 한다고 평가한다. 파월 의장은 3월에 정점이었을 수 있다고 언급했다. 리스크/조건: 경기침체인지 하이퍼인플레이션인지 아직 불분명하며, 재정·통화 긴축이 지속되면 로테이션 방향이 바뀔 수 있다. 서비스 가격도 상승해 인플레 압력이 완화되지 않았다는 점이 리스크다. 언급 종목/자산 방향: 나스닥은 약세장 상황으로 언급되며, 가치 섹터(에너지·소재·유틸리티)는 강세, 주택·자동차 관련은 약세로 언급된다. 구체적 목표가나 매수·매도 추천은 없다.
다듬은 글
and as you know since then we went through a boom in the equity markets and now we're in a bear market essentially certainly the nasdaq is welcome to dream richer there's a strong confusion amongst the feds right now whether or not they should lower the interest rates or increase them whatever option they choose the economy will either plunge into inflation or the recession the banks have already started giving out warnings of a so-called major hurricane that will soon hit the economy as of yet no one knows what type of hurricane this will be perhaps inflation by four folds or an economic recession where we will see something like the great depression repeat itself federal reserve gauge is indicating that the us economy could be headed for a second consecutive quarter of negative growth meeting a rule of thumb definition for a recession talk of recession has accelerated this year amid surging inflation that has put a damper on corporate profit outlooks many on wall street are still expecting the combination of resilience in consumer spending and job growth to keep the us out of recession chairman jerome powell said last month he sees a good chance to have a soft or softish landing even with policy tightening by the end of this video kathy wood unravels the conundrum of an all-out economy collapse if you find the video helpful then don't forget to subscribe let's get right into it elon musk said that he has a super bad feeling about the economy jamie dimon at jp morgan talked about a hurricane be prepared for a hurricane that hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way he doesn't know what kind of hurricane is it going to be a mild one or is it going to be a hurricane sandy which would be quite serious but i think he's changed his tune a bit in the last month since jp morgan reported earnings so he sees a lot of business activity and must see it slowing down if i if i had to guess the president of goldman described this environment as a confluence of shocks that in his career has been unprecedented so again he has a very good perspective global perspective every sector and so i would say at the margin these three business leaders are seeing the economy in some form of stress if you look at the macro numbers that came out personal consumption expenditures for april came out at 0.9 percent that's nominal so that includes inflation excluding inflation 0.7 so that was a pretty strong report after a great degree of sluggishness the reason it's surprising is we also got the university of michigan's consumer sentiment index and it fell it fell to a new low and we're back to where we were in 0809 so that is not a good place and and it's hard to understand why consumers would be spending so much the other confusing statistic to me is consumer credit the change in consumer credit outstanding now this includes both revolving so credit cards and installment debt and these are huge numbers for march and april 37 billion and 52 billion normally we're used to seeing 6 billion or 5 billion equities are telling us that the fed is going to make a mistake and even the fed is saying we could make a mistake the economy could enter into recession we hope not there are instances of so-called soft landings but i would submit that housing and autos down 20 is not a soft landing you're seeing in the sectors as equities are broken out by something called gex sectors energy utilities and materials are up now energy and materials are value sectors and they tend to do well in inflationary times if we're right and fiscal and monetary policy are both very tight and getting tighter then at some point this is going to flip we will flip away from this value rotation and back to growth government data released friday put inflation at 8.6 extending increases not seen for a generation with gas prices hitting daily records which some believe to be fueled by russia's invasion of ukraine and supply chain challenges related to the pandemic biden whose popularity has taken hit as prices surged just months before november's midterm elections has made fighting inflation his top domestic priority but so far his strategies don't seem to be showing promising results some argue that mr joe biden could be playing the blaming game by blaming the current u.s bearish market on president putin in fact this is what joe biden had to say recently i'm doing everything in my power to blunt putin's price hike and bring down the price of gas and food but he acknowledged that rising inflation was a severe problem saying in an earlier statement the united states must do more and quickly to get prices down and just hearkening back to the last time the fed was fighting inflation and ferociously fighting inflation was under volcker in the late 70s and the early 80s and i was there i was just starting my career and i remember the fed funds rate was at 10 chairman volcker at the time jacked it up to 20 in one move so that was up a thousand basis points to be sure that's a lot and he did it to shock the economy but that was only up two-fold we've already gone up four-fold and potentially up tenfold just beginning to wonder if you know the impact on the economy starting from such a low rate and having been at low rates for so long that maybe this is yes a shock to the economy or the biggest fight that the fed has on its hands it believes is inflation and inflation has been much higher than we would have expected and you know the reason supply chain issues for much longer almost two years now more than two years now and then of course russia invading ukraine really driving up food and energy prices so the fed is not happy with this and no one's happy in fact the consumer is very upset hasn't been this upset since 0809 but we are beginning to see signs that inflation has peaked and chairman powell did say maybe it did peak in march we got the personal consumption deflator which is the fed's primary inflation indicators to which they pay the most attention the headline pce deflator was an increase of 0.2 percent so that's two and a half percent at an annualized rate roughly and if we were back there on a year-over-year basis the fed would not be tightening nonetheless to see that happening at the margin is really important and the fed should start taking some comfort from it it's clear from kathy wood's explanation that our economy is in a state of total confusion though there are certain good outlooks such as consumers index however most of the experts believe we are headed right into a brick wall whether that brick wall comes in the shape of hyperinflation or recession no one knows as of yet prices continued to rise last month for goods including housing groceries airline fares and used and new vehicles this set new records in multiple categories according to the labor department report some economists expected the easing of pandemic restrictions to cause a shift of u.s consumer demand towards services and away from goods which they said would ease inflation pressures but prices for services increased as well how do you the economy will perform in future let us know in comments below to learn more about the latest crypto news watch these videos here you
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